NFL Model HQ

A Bayesian margin model · generated 2026-09-15

Run health: all hard checks passed; 1 warning: kalshi-snapshot alive (NFL series)
run 2026-09-15 07:12 UTC · kickoff check clean · 32/32 priced games under 30h

every check

games.csv refreshed: 0 min old
rundown ran this run: log last written 0 min old
no game priced past its own kickoff: clean
moneyline probabilities finite: 32/32
Kalshi prices present: 32/32 games have a price
Kalshi prices fresh: 32/32 priced games under 30h
kalshi-snapshot alive (NFL series): last snapshot 232 min ago

This Week

Green bar: the Bayesian Model's chance the home team wins. White bar: what the market charges for that outcome. Badges: green means real value after fees, yellow means an edge too small to trust, red means the price is fair or worse. Each card also grades the Vegas spread: the model's chance of covering each side, and whether that beats the 52.4% needed to profit at a standard -110. Every green light still gets a human news check first.

Market prices last logged: Sep 15, 03:19 UTC, about 4h ago. "No price yet" means no price existed in that snapshot; the market may have opened since.

DET @ BUF2026-09-17

HIGH VALUE — DET

Bayesian Model: BUF by 2 ±13

Gambler terms: BUF -2.5 · BUF ML -134

Bayesian model

57%

Market price

68¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -11 points of probability against BUF

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects BUF to win, but the market charges too much for BUF. The value play is DET: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Spread (Vegas: BUF -4.5): model covers DET +4.5 56% of the time · fair price -128 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

CAR @ ATL2026-09-20

CAUTIOUS — small edge on CAR

Bayesian Model: CAR by 3 ±13

Gambler terms: CAR -3 · CAR ML -142

Bayesian model

41%

Market price

47¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -6 points of probability against ATL

Why · spread

For value: the model and the market agree CAR is the likely winner, but the model is more confident than the price implies. The value play is CAR. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Spread (Vegas: CAR -1.5): model covers CAR -1.5 54% of the time · fair price -118 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

CIN @ HOU2026-09-20

CAUTIOUS — small edge on HOU

Bayesian Model: HOU by 5 ±14

Gambler terms: HOU -5 · HOU ML -180

Bayesian model

64%

Market price

60¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +4 points of probability toward HOU

Why · spread

For value: the model and the market agree HOU is the likely winner, but the model is more confident than the price implies. The value play is HOU. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Spread (Vegas: HOU -3): model covers HOU -3 56% of the time · fair price -128 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

CLE @ TB2026-09-20

CAUTIOUS — small edge on TB

Bayesian Model: TB by 10 ±12

Gambler terms: TB -10.5 · TB ML -422

Bayesian model

81%

Market price

79¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +2 points of probability toward TB

Why · spread

For value: the model and the market agree TB is the likely winner, but the model is more confident than the price implies. The value play is TB. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Spread (Vegas: TB -8.5): model covers TB -8.5 56% of the time · fair price -128 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

GB @ NYJ2026-09-20

NO VALUE at current price

Bayesian Model: GB by 4 ±14

Gambler terms: GB -4.5 · GB ML -167

Bayesian model

38%

Market price

36¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +2 points of probability toward NYJ

Why · spread

The model and the market see this game the same way: GB likely wins, and the price already says so. Fair price, no bet.

Spread (Vegas: GB -4.5): model covers NYJ +4.5 51% of the time · fair price -102 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

IND @ KC2026-09-20

HIGH VALUE — IND

Bayesian Model: KC by 3 ±14

Gambler terms: KC -3 · KC ML -143

Bayesian model

59%

Market price

74¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -15 points of probability against KC

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects KC to win, but the market charges too much for KC. The value play is IND: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Spread (Vegas: KC -6.5): model covers IND +6.5 59% of the time · fair price -146 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

JAX @ DEN2026-09-20

HIGH VALUE — JAX

Bayesian Model: JAX by 2 ±14

Gambler terms: JAX -2 · JAX ML -126

Bayesian model

44%

Market price

55¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -11 points of probability against DEN

Why · spread

For value: the model calls an upset. It makes JAX the favorite while the market does not, so JAX comes cheap if the model is right. The value play is JAX.

Spread (Vegas: DEN -2.5): model covers JAX +2.5 63% of the time · fair price -169 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

LV @ LAC2026-09-20

NO VALUE at current price

Bayesian Model: LAC by 8 ±12

Gambler terms: LAC -7.5 · LAC ML -281

Bayesian model

74%

Market price

74¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -0 points of probability against LAC

Why · spread

The model and the market see this game the same way: LAC likely wins, and the price already says so. Fair price, no bet.

Spread (Vegas: LAC -7): model covers LAC -7 52% of the time · fair price -108 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

MIA @ SF2026-09-20

HIGH VALUE — MIA

Bayesian Model: SF by 11 ±12

Gambler terms: SF -11 · SF ML -435

Bayesian model

81%

Market price

90¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -9 points of probability against SF

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects SF to win, but the market charges too much for SF. The value play is MIA: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Spread (Vegas: SF -13.5): model covers MIA +13.5 58% of the time · fair price -139 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

MIN @ CHI2026-09-20

NO VALUE at current price

Bayesian Model: CHI by 6 ±12

Gambler terms: CHI -5.5 · CHI ML -215

Bayesian model

68%

Market price

69¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -1 points of probability against CHI

Why · spread

The model and the market see this game the same way: CHI likely wins, and the price already says so. Fair price, no bet.

Spread (Vegas: CHI -5.5): model covers CHI -5.5 50% of the time · fair price -100 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

NO @ BAL2026-09-20

CAUTIOUS — small edge on NO

Bayesian Model: BAL by 9 ±14

Gambler terms: BAL -9 · BAL ML -288

Bayesian model

74%

Market price

80¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -6 points of probability against BAL

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects BAL to win, but the market charges too much for BAL. The value play is NO: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Spread (Vegas: BAL -8.5): model covers BAL -8.5 52% of the time · fair price -107 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

PHI @ TEN2026-09-20

HIGH VALUE — TEN

Bayesian Model: PHI by 5 ±15

Gambler terms: PHI -5 · PHI ML -171

Bayesian model

37%

Market price

25¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +12 points of probability toward TEN

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects PHI to win, but the market charges too much for PHI. The value play is TEN: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Spread (Vegas: PHI -7): model covers TEN +7 56% of the time · fair price -126 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

PIT @ NE2026-09-20

CAUTIOUS — small edge on PIT

Bayesian Model: NE by 4 ±11

Gambler terms: NE -4 · NE ML -182

Bayesian model

65%

Market price

68¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -3 points of probability against NE

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects NE to win, but the market charges too much for NE. The value play is PIT: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Spread (Vegas: NE -5.5): model covers PIT +5.5 55% of the time · fair price -120 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

SEA @ ARI2026-09-20

HIGH VALUE — ARI

Bayesian Model: SEA by 2 ±15

Gambler terms: SEA -2 · SEA ML -122

Bayesian model

45%

Market price

34¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +11 points of probability toward ARI

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects SEA to win, but the market charges too much for SEA. The value play is ARI: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Spread (Vegas: SEA -4.5): model covers ARI +4.5 57% of the time · fair price -134 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

WAS @ DAL2026-09-20

CAUTIOUS — small edge on WAS

Bayesian Model: DAL by 3 ±12

Gambler terms: DAL -3.5 · DAL ML -157

Bayesian model

61%

Market price

66¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -5 points of probability against DAL

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects DAL to win, but the market charges too much for DAL. The value play is WAS: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Spread (Vegas: DAL -3.5): model covers WAS +3.5 50% of the time · fair price -100 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

NYG @ LA2026-09-21

HIGH VALUE — NYG

Bayesian Model: LA by 6 ±14

Gambler terms: LA -6.5 · LA ML -209

Bayesian model

68%

Market price

75¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -7 points of probability against LA

Why · spread

For value: the model still expects LA to win, but the market charges too much for LA. The value play is NYG: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Spread (Vegas: LA -7): model covers NYG +7 52% of the time · fair price -108 · not backtested as a bet (five-season record: 49.2% vs. a 52.4% breakeven) -- reference only

Parlay Lab

Combinations of moneylines (at logged Kalshi prices, fees included) and spreads (at the standard -110). Pick your risk appetite: Safe caps the payout near +120 and ranks by hit chance; these are legs where the model and the market mostly agree, so expect them to land often but carry little or no edge; you are paying the fees for the fun, not beating anyone. Balanced (+120 to +300) and Longshot (+300 to +1000) rank by the model's expected profit, which is where real disagreements live. Moonshot is the lottery-ticket tier: payouts above +1000, including legs where the model disagrees with the market by an amount too large to fully trust, since a gap that big often means the model is missing news rather than the market giving money away. Moonshot numbers are the model at its least reliable; bet them for the sweat, not the math. Read each row as: the model says this combo hits X%, the market's prices imply Y%, and the last column is the average result of a $10 bet, blending wins and losses at the model's probability: it is not what a winning ticket pays (the Payout column is), it is what the bet earns or costs on average if you made it many times. Positive means the model thinks you are being paid to take the bet; negative means you are paying for the entertainment. Legs are independent games only, and parlays multiply the house's cut as well as the thrill.

Legs	Model chance	Market implied chance	Payout	Avg profit per $10 bet, win or lose
TB ML, SF ML	66%	73%	-266	-$0.95
SF ML, BAL ML	60%	74%	-278	-$1.79
TB ML, BAL ML	60%	65%	-186	-$0.77
LAC ML, SF ML	60%	68%	-215	-$1.22
TB ML, LAC ML	60%	60%	-153	-$0.13
SF ML, CHI ML	56%	64%	-177	-$1.31
TB ML, CHI ML	55%	57%	-130	-$0.23
SF ML, LA ML	55%	69%	-224	-$2.04
LAC ML, BAL ML	55%	61%	-157	-$1.04
TB ML, LA ML	55%	61%	-158	-$1.06
IND +6.5, JAX +2.5	37%	27%	+264	+$3.57
JAX +2.5, MIA +13.5	37%	27%	+264	+$3.30
JAX +2.5, ARI +4.5	36%	27%	+264	+$3.12
TB -8.5, JAX +2.5	35%	27%	+264	+$2.86
DET +4.5, JAX +2.5	35%	27%	+264	+$2.84
HOU -3, JAX +2.5	35%	27%	+264	+$2.84
CAR ML, JAX +2.5	37%	29%	+249	+$2.83
JAX +2.5, TEN +7	35%	27%	+264	+$2.78
CAR ML, JAX ML	33%	26%	+291	+$2.76
HOU ML, TB ML, JAX +2.5	33%	26%	+286	+$2.59
IND +6.5, JAX +2.5, MIA +13.5	22%	14%	+596	+$5.07
IND +6.5, JAX ML, MIA +13.5	19%	13%	+680	+$4.99
IND +6.5, JAX +2.5, ARI +4.5	21%	14%	+596	+$4.86
IND +6.5, JAX ML, ARI +4.5	19%	13%	+680	+$4.78
JAX +2.5, MIA +13.5, ARI +4.5	21%	14%	+596	+$4.56
TB -8.5, IND +6.5, JAX +2.5	21%	14%	+596	+$4.56
DET +4.5, IND +6.5, JAX +2.5	21%	14%	+596	+$4.54
HOU -3, IND +6.5, JAX +2.5	21%	14%	+596	+$4.54
CAR ML, IND +6.5, JAX +2.5	22%	15%	+566	+$4.53
JAX ML, MIA +13.5, ARI +4.5	19%	13%	+680	+$4.49

Track Record

Everything on this tab is stated from the home team's perspective: a positive margin means the home team won by that much, and every probability is the home team's chance of winning. Every prediction below was made by the Bayesian Model before it had seen the game: each week it trains only on games already played, exactly as it runs live. Seasons before 2021 are excluded because the model's settings were chosen using that era. Two separate report cards: Both scorecards below belong to the Bayesian Model, never to Vegas: "winner pick" is the model picking the game outright, and "spread pick" is the model's chosen side against the Vegas closing line (the pick is spelled out in each row, for example "LAC +3"). 52.4% against the spread is break-even at standard juice.

Season	Games	Bayesian Model picks winner	Model vs the spread	Avg miss (pts)
2021	272	64.7%	53.0%	11.0
2022	271	63.1%	51.3%	9.0
2023	272	61.0%	46.9%	10.3
2024	272	68.4%	48.5%	10.0
2025	272	62.5%	46.5%	10.3

Honesty check. Everything in this table is from the home team's point of view. Take all the games where the Bayesian Model gave the home team a certain range of winning chances, then check how often the home team really won. A single game cannot test a probability, since it either happens or it does not; only a pile of games can. So games are grouped by what the model predicted. Reading the first row: take every game where the model gave the home team somewhere in the 0-35% range; those predictions averaged 28%, and home teams in that pile actually won 34% of the time. The test is always the last two columns against each other: when they roughly match in every row, the model's stated confidence is honest.

Games grouped by prediction	Games	The group's predictions averaged	Home teams in the group actually won
0-35%	164	28%	34%
35-45%	231	41%	33%
45-55%	305	50%	47%
55-65%	291	60%	61%
65-100%	368	74%	77%

2021 season — every game (272)

Wk	Game	Bayesian Model line	Vegas line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home score first)	Bayesian Model winner pick	Bayesian Model spread pick
W1	DAL @ TB	TB -9.5	TB -10	76%	+2 (TB 31 - DAL 29)	TB · HIT	DAL +10 · HIT
W1	ARI @ TEN	TEN -5	TEN -2.5	64%	-25 (TEN 13 - ARI 38)	TEN · miss	TEN -2.5 · miss
W1	CHI @ LA	LA -3	LA -9.5	59%	+20 (LA 34 - CHI 14)	LA · HIT	CHI +9.5 · miss
W1	CLE @ KC	KC -4.5	KC -5.5	64%	+4 (KC 33 - CLE 29)	KC · HIT	CLE +5.5 · HIT
W1	DEN @ NYG	NYG -5	DEN -3	65%	-14 (NYG 13 - DEN 27)	NYG · miss	NYG +3 · miss
W1	GB @ NO	pick'em	GB -4	50%	+35 (NO 38 - GB 3)	GB · miss	NO +4 · HIT
W1	JAX @ HOU	HOU -5	JAX -3.5	65%	+16 (HOU 37 - JAX 21)	HOU · HIT	HOU +3.5 · HIT
W1	LAC @ WAS	LAC -1	WAS -2.5	46%	-4 (WAS 16 - LAC 20)	LAC · HIT	LAC +2.5 · HIT
W1	MIA @ NE	NE -0.5	NE -3.5	51%	-1 (NE 16 - MIA 17)	NE · miss	MIA +3.5 · HIT
W1	MIN @ CIN	MIN -5	MIN -3	36%	+3 (CIN 27 - MIN 24)	MIN · miss	MIN -3 · miss
W1	NYJ @ CAR	CAR -4	CAR -3.5	62%	+5 (CAR 19 - NYJ 14)	CAR · HIT	CAR -3.5 · HIT
W1	PHI @ ATL	ATL -5.5	ATL -3.5	66%	-26 (ATL 6 - PHI 32)	ATL · miss	ATL -3.5 · miss
W1	PIT @ BUF	BUF -6	BUF -6.5	68%	-7 (BUF 16 - PIT 23)	BUF · miss	PIT +6.5 · HIT
W1	SEA @ IND	SEA -2	SEA -3	44%	-12 (IND 16 - SEA 28)	SEA · HIT	IND +3 · miss
W1	SF @ DET	SF -6.5	SF -9.5	31%	-8 (DET 33 - SF 41)	SF · HIT	DET +9.5 · HIT
W1	BAL @ LV	BAL -9.5	BAL -3	24%	+6 (LV 33 - BAL 27)	BAL · miss	BAL -3 · miss
W2	NYG @ WAS	WAS -1.5	WAS -4	54%	+1 (WAS 30 - NYG 29)	WAS · HIT	NYG +4 · HIT
W2	ATL @ TB	TB -7.5	TB -13.5	71%	+23 (TB 48 - ATL 25)	TB · HIT	ATL +13.5 · miss
W2	BUF @ MIA	BUF -4.5	BUF -3.5	37%	-35 (MIA 0 - BUF 35)	BUF · HIT	BUF -3.5 · HIT
W2	CIN @ CHI	CHI -4	CHI -2	61%	+3 (CHI 20 - CIN 17)	CHI · HIT	CHI -2 · HIT
W2	DAL @ LAC	LAC -2.5	LAC -3	57%	-3 (LAC 17 - DAL 20)	LAC · miss	DAL +3 · HIT
W2	DEN @ JAX	DEN -3.5	DEN -6	40%	-10 (JAX 13 - DEN 23)	DEN · HIT	JAX +6 · miss
W2	HOU @ CLE	CLE -5.5	CLE -13.5	66%	+10 (CLE 31 - HOU 21)	CLE · HIT	HOU +13.5 · HIT
W2	KC @ BAL	BAL -5	KC -3.5	64%	+1 (BAL 36 - KC 35)	BAL · HIT	BAL +3.5 · HIT
W2	LA @ IND	LA -1	LA -4	47%	-3 (IND 24 - LA 27)	LA · HIT	IND +4 · HIT
W2	LV @ PIT	PIT -5	PIT -5.5	65%	-9 (PIT 17 - LV 26)	PIT · miss	LV +5.5 · HIT
W2	MIN @ ARI	ARI -3	ARI -4	59%	+1 (ARI 34 - MIN 33)	ARI · HIT	MIN +4 · HIT
W2	NE @ NYJ	NE -4.5	NE -5.5	37%	-19 (NYJ 6 - NE 25)	NE · HIT	NYJ +5.5 · miss
W2	NO @ CAR	NO -10	NO -3	23%	+19 (CAR 26 - NO 7)	NO · miss	NO -3 · miss
W2	SF @ PHI	SF -0.5	SF -3	49%	-6 (PHI 11 - SF 17)	SF · HIT	PHI +3 · miss
W2	TEN @ SEA	SEA -4.5	SEA -6.5	63%	-3 (SEA 30 - TEN 33)	SEA · miss	TEN +6.5 · HIT
W2	DET @ GB	GB -12	GB -11.5	82%	+18 (GB 35 - DET 17)	GB · HIT	GB -11.5 · HIT
W3	CAR @ HOU	CAR -0.5	CAR -8	48%	-15 (HOU 9 - CAR 24)	CAR · HIT	HOU +8 · miss
W3	ARI @ JAX	ARI -9.5	ARI -8	23%	-12 (JAX 19 - ARI 31)	ARI · HIT	ARI -8 · HIT
W3	ATL @ NYG	NYG -1	NYG -3	53%	-3 (NYG 14 - ATL 17)	NYG · miss	ATL +3 · HIT
W3	BAL @ DET	BAL -14	BAL -7.5	15%	-2 (DET 17 - BAL 19)	BAL · HIT	BAL -7.5 · miss
W3	CHI @ CLE	CLE -5	CLE -7.5	65%	+20 (CLE 26 - CHI 6)	CLE · HIT	CHI +7.5 · miss
W3	CIN @ PIT	PIT -7	PIT -2.5	70%	-14 (PIT 10 - CIN 24)	PIT · miss	PIT -2.5 · miss
W3	GB @ SF	GB -2.5	SF -3.5	42%	-2 (SF 28 - GB 30)	GB · HIT	GB +3.5 · HIT
W3	IND @ TEN	TEN -2.5	TEN -4.5	58%	+9 (TEN 25 - IND 16)	TEN · HIT	IND +4.5 · miss
W3	LAC @ KC	KC -4.5	KC -6.5	63%	-6 (KC 24 - LAC 30)	KC · miss	LAC +6.5 · HIT
W3	MIA @ LV	LV -4	LV -4	61%	+3 (LV 31 - MIA 28)	LV · HIT	MIA +4 · HIT
W3	NO @ NE	NO -4	NE -3	38%	-15 (NE 13 - NO 28)	NO · HIT	NO +3 · HIT
W3	NYJ @ DEN	DEN -5.5	DEN -10.5	66%	+26 (DEN 26 - NYJ 0)	DEN · HIT	NYJ +10.5 · miss
W3	SEA @ MIN	SEA -2.5	SEA -2	42%	+13 (MIN 30 - SEA 17)	SEA · miss	SEA -2 · miss
W3	TB @ LA	TB -3	TB -1	40%	+10 (LA 34 - TB 24)	TB · miss	TB -1 · miss
W3	WAS @ BUF	BUF -10	BUF -7.5	78%	+22 (BUF 43 - WAS 21)	BUF · HIT	BUF -7.5 · HIT
W3	PHI @ DAL	DAL -1.5	DAL -3.5	55%	+20 (DAL 41 - PHI 21)	DAL · HIT	PHI +3.5 · miss
W4	JAX @ CIN	CIN -6.5	CIN -7.5	69%	+3 (CIN 24 - JAX 21)	CIN · HIT	JAX +7.5 · HIT
W4	ARI @ LA	LA -0.5	LA -3.5	51%	-17 (LA 20 - ARI 37)	LA · miss	ARI +3.5 · HIT
W4	BAL @ DEN	BAL -6.5	DEN -1	31%	-16 (DEN 7 - BAL 23)	BAL · HIT	BAL +1 · HIT
W4	CAR @ DAL	DAL -2	DAL -4.5	57%	+8 (DAL 36 - CAR 28)	DAL · HIT	CAR +4.5 · miss
W4	CLE @ MIN	pick'em	CLE -1	50%	-7 (MIN 7 - CLE 14)	MIN · miss	MIN +1 · miss
W4	DET @ CHI	CHI -4	CHI -3	62%	+10 (CHI 24 - DET 14)	CHI · HIT	CHI -3 · HIT
W4	HOU @ BUF	BUF -13	BUF -19	83%	+40 (BUF 40 - HOU 0)	BUF · HIT	HOU +19 · miss
W4	IND @ MIA	IND -2	MIA -2.5	43%	-10 (MIA 17 - IND 27)	IND · HIT	IND +2.5 · HIT
W4	KC @ PHI	KC -4	KC -7.5	38%	-12 (PHI 30 - KC 42)	KC · HIT	PHI +7.5 · miss
W4	NYG @ NO	NO -9	NO -7.5	75%	-6 (NO 21 - NYG 27)	NO · miss	NO -7.5 · miss
W4	PIT @ GB	GB -6	GB -6.5	67%	+10 (GB 27 - PIT 17)	GB · HIT	PIT +6.5 · miss
W4	SEA @ SF	SEA -2	SF -2.5	44%	-7 (SF 21 - SEA 28)	SEA · HIT	SEA +2.5 · HIT
W4	TB @ NE	TB -5	TB -6	35%	-2 (NE 17 - TB 19)	TB · HIT	NE +6 · HIT
W4	TEN @ NYJ	TEN -9	TEN -5.5	24%	+3 (NYJ 27 - TEN 24)	TEN · miss	TEN -5.5 · miss
W4	WAS @ ATL	ATL -2.5	WAS -1	58%	-4 (ATL 30 - WAS 34)	ATL · miss	ATL +1 · miss
W4	LV @ LAC	LAC -2	LAC -3	56%	+14 (LAC 28 - LV 14)	LAC · HIT	LV +3 · miss
W5	LA @ SEA	SEA -3.5	LA -2.5	61%	-9 (SEA 17 - LA 26)	SEA · miss	SEA +2.5 · miss
W5	BUF @ KC	BUF -4	KC -2.5	38%	-18 (KC 20 - BUF 38)	BUF · HIT	BUF +2.5 · HIT
W5	CHI @ LV	LV -2.5	LV -5.5	57%	-11 (LV 9 - CHI 20)	LV · miss	CHI +5.5 · HIT
W5	CLE @ LAC	CLE -0.5	LAC -2.5	49%	+5 (LAC 47 - CLE 42)	CLE · miss	CLE +2.5 · miss
W5	DEN @ PIT	PIT -3.5	DEN -2	60%	+8 (PIT 27 - DEN 19)	PIT · HIT	PIT +2 · HIT
W5	DET @ MIN	MIN -8.5	MIN -10	74%	+2 (MIN 19 - DET 17)	MIN · HIT	DET +10 · HIT
W5	GB @ CIN	GB -6.5	GB -2	31%	-3 (CIN 22 - GB 25)	GB · HIT	GB -2 · HIT
W5	MIA @ TB	TB -11.5	TB -11	81%	+28 (TB 45 - MIA 17)	TB · HIT	TB -11 · HIT
W5	NE @ HOU	NE -4	NE -8	38%	-3 (HOU 22 - NE 25)	NE · HIT	HOU +8 · HIT
W5	NO @ WAS	NO -6	NO -2.5	33%	-11 (WAS 22 - NO 33)	NO · HIT	NO -2.5 · HIT
W5	NYG @ DAL	DAL -2.5	DAL -7.5	58%	+24 (DAL 44 - NYG 20)	DAL · HIT	NYG +7.5 · miss
W5	NYJ @ ATL	ATL -7	ATL -3	70%	+7 (ATL 27 - NYJ 20)	ATL · HIT	ATL -3 · HIT
W5	PHI @ CAR	CAR -2.5	CAR -2.5	58%	-3 (CAR 18 - PHI 21)	CAR · miss	CAR -2.5 · miss
W5	SF @ ARI	ARI -5.5	ARI -6	66%	+7 (ARI 17 - SF 10)	ARI · HIT	SF +6 · miss
W5	TEN @ JAX	TEN -9	TEN -4	25%	-18 (JAX 19 - TEN 37)	TEN · HIT	TEN -4 · HIT
W5	IND @ BAL	BAL -7.5	BAL -7.5	72%	+6 (BAL 31 - IND 25)	BAL · HIT	BAL -7.5 · miss
W6	TB @ PHI	TB -7.5	TB -7	29%	-6 (PHI 22 - TB 28)	TB · HIT	TB -7 · miss
W6	ARI @ CLE	pick'em	CLE -3	50%	-23 (CLE 14 - ARI 37)	ARI · HIT	ARI +3 · HIT
W6	CIN @ DET	CIN -2.5	CIN -3.5	42%	-23 (DET 11 - CIN 34)	CIN · HIT	DET +3.5 · miss
W6	DAL @ NE	DAL -2	DAL -3.5	45%	-6 (NE 29 - DAL 35)	DAL · HIT	NE +3.5 · miss
W6	GB @ CHI	GB -6	GB -5.5	33%	-10 (CHI 14 - GB 24)	GB · HIT	GB -5.5 · HIT
W6	HOU @ IND	IND -8.5	IND -10.5	74%	+28 (IND 31 - HOU 3)	IND · HIT	HOU +10.5 · miss
W6	KC @ WAS	KC -4	KC -6	38%	-18 (WAS 13 - KC 31)	KC · HIT	WAS +6 · miss
W6	LAC @ BAL	BAL -6	BAL -3	67%	+28 (BAL 34 - LAC 6)	BAL · HIT	BAL -3 · HIT
W6	LA @ NYG	LA -3.5	LA -7.5	39%	-27 (NYG 11 - LA 38)	LA · HIT	NYG +7.5 · miss
W6	LV @ DEN	DEN -1	DEN -5	52%	-10 (DEN 24 - LV 34)	DEN · miss	LV +5 · HIT
W6	MIA @ JAX	MIA -3	MIA -2.5	42%	+3 (JAX 23 - MIA 20)	MIA · miss	MIA -2.5 · miss
W6	MIN @ CAR	MIN -0.5	MIN -2.5	49%	-6 (CAR 28 - MIN 34)	MIN · HIT	CAR +2.5 · miss
W6	SEA @ PIT	PIT -1	PIT -5.5	53%	+3 (PIT 23 - SEA 20)	PIT · HIT	SEA +5.5 · HIT
W6	BUF @ TEN	BUF -5.5	BUF -6	33%	+3 (TEN 34 - BUF 31)	BUF · miss	TEN +6 · HIT
W7	DEN @ CLE	CLE -2.5	CLE -2	58%	+3 (CLE 17 - DEN 14)	CLE · HIT	CLE -2 · HIT
W7	ATL @ MIA	ATL -1	ATL -1.5	47%	-2 (MIA 28 - ATL 30)	ATL · HIT	MIA +1.5 · miss
W7	CAR @ NYG	CAR -1	CAR -3	46%	+22 (NYG 25 - CAR 3)	CAR · miss	NYG +3 · HIT
W7	CHI @ TB	TB -10.5	TB -12.5	79%	+35 (TB 38 - CHI 3)	TB · HIT	CHI +12.5 · miss
W7	CIN @ BAL	BAL -10	BAL -6.5	78%	-24 (BAL 17 - CIN 41)	BAL · miss	BAL -6.5 · miss
W7	DET @ LA	LA -12	LA -17	82%	+9 (LA 28 - DET 19)	LA · HIT	DET +17 · HIT
W7	HOU @ ARI	ARI -14	ARI -20.5	86%	+26 (ARI 31 - HOU 5)	ARI · HIT	HOU +20.5 · miss
W7	IND @ SF	IND -2	SF -3.5	44%	-12 (SF 18 - IND 30)	IND · HIT	IND +3.5 · HIT
W7	KC @ TEN	TEN -1.5	KC -4	55%	+24 (TEN 27 - KC 3)	TEN · HIT	TEN +4 · HIT
W7	NYJ @ NE	NE -7	NE -7	70%	+41 (NE 54 - NYJ 13)	NE · HIT	NYJ +7 · miss
W7	PHI @ LV	LV -1	LV -1	53%	+11 (LV 33 - PHI 22)	LV · HIT	LV -1 · HIT
W7	WAS @ GB	GB -10.5	GB -8.5	78%	+14 (GB 24 - WAS 10)	GB · HIT	GB -8.5 · HIT
W7	NO @ SEA	NO -3	NO -6	40%	-3 (SEA 10 - NO 13)	NO · HIT	SEA +6 · HIT
W8	GB @ ARI	ARI -3	ARI -6.5	59%	-3 (ARI 21 - GB 24)	ARI · miss	GB +6.5 · HIT
W8	CAR @ ATL	ATL -2	ATL -2.5	57%	-6 (ATL 13 - CAR 19)	ATL · miss	CAR +2.5 · HIT
W8	CIN @ NYJ	CIN -8.5	CIN -11.5	26%	+3 (NYJ 34 - CIN 31)	CIN · miss	NYJ +11.5 · HIT
W8	DAL @ MIN	MIN -0.5	MIN -4.5	52%	-4 (MIN 16 - DAL 20)	MIN · miss	DAL +4.5 · HIT
W8	JAX @ SEA	SEA -10.5	SEA -4	78%	+24 (SEA 31 - JAX 7)	SEA · HIT	SEA -4 · HIT
W8	LA @ HOU	LA -11	LA -17	20%	-16 (HOU 22 - LA 38)	LA · HIT	HOU +17 · HIT
W8	MIA @ BUF	BUF -13.5	BUF -15	85%	+15 (BUF 26 - MIA 11)	BUF · HIT	MIA +15 · push
W8	NE @ LAC	NE -0.5	LAC -3.5	49%	-3 (LAC 24 - NE 27)	NE · HIT	NE +3.5 · HIT
W8	PHI @ DET	PHI -4	PHI -3	39%	-38 (DET 6 - PHI 44)	PHI · HIT	PHI -3 · HIT
W8	PIT @ CLE	CLE -2	CLE -5.5	56%	-5 (CLE 10 - PIT 15)	CLE · miss	PIT +5.5 · HIT
W8	SF @ CHI	SF -1	SF -4.5	47%	-11 (CHI 22 - SF 33)	SF · HIT	CHI +4.5 · miss
W8	TB @ NO	TB -3	TB -4	41%	+9 (NO 36 - TB 27)	TB · miss	NO +4 · HIT
W8	TEN @ IND	pick'em	IND -3	50%	-3 (IND 31 - TEN 34)	IND · miss	TEN +3 · HIT
W8	WAS @ DEN	DEN -2	DEN -4	56%	+7 (DEN 17 - WAS 10)	DEN · HIT	WAS +4 · miss
W8	NYG @ KC	KC -6	KC -10.5	68%	+3 (KC 20 - NYG 17)	KC · HIT	NYG +10.5 · HIT
W9	NYJ @ IND	IND -13	IND -10.5	84%	+15 (IND 45 - NYJ 30)	IND · HIT	IND -10.5 · HIT
W9	ARI @ SF	ARI -2.5	SF -5.5	42%	-14 (SF 17 - ARI 31)	ARI · HIT	ARI +5.5 · HIT
W9	ATL @ NO	NO -6.5	NO -7	69%	-2 (NO 25 - ATL 27)	NO · miss	ATL +7 · HIT
W9	BUF @ JAX	BUF -15.5	BUF -14.5	12%	+3 (JAX 9 - BUF 6)	BUF · miss	BUF -14.5 · miss
W9	CLE @ CIN	CLE -0.5	CIN -2.5	49%	-25 (CIN 16 - CLE 41)	CLE · HIT	CLE +2.5 · HIT
W9	DEN @ DAL	DAL -5	DAL -10.5	65%	-14 (DAL 16 - DEN 30)	DAL · miss	DEN +10.5 · HIT
W9	GB @ KC	KC -1	KC -7	52%	+6 (KC 13 - GB 7)	KC · HIT	GB +7 · HIT
W9	HOU @ MIA	MIA -5	MIA -4	65%	+8 (MIA 17 - HOU 9)	MIA · HIT	MIA -4 · HIT
W9	LAC @ PHI	PHI -1.5	LAC -1	55%	-3 (PHI 24 - LAC 27)	PHI · miss	PHI +1 · miss
W9	LV @ NYG	pick'em	LV -3	50%	+7 (NYG 23 - LV 16)	LV · miss	NYG +3 · HIT
W9	MIN @ BAL	BAL -6	BAL -7.5	68%	+3 (BAL 34 - MIN 31)	BAL · HIT	MIN +7.5 · HIT
W9	NE @ CAR	NE -1.5	NE -3.5	45%	-18 (CAR 6 - NE 24)	NE · HIT	CAR +3.5 · miss
W9	TEN @ LA	LA -0.5	LA -7	52%	-12 (LA 16 - TEN 28)	LA · miss	TEN +7 · HIT
W9	CHI @ PIT	PIT -6.5	PIT -7	69%	+2 (PIT 29 - CHI 27)	PIT · HIT	CHI +7 · HIT
W10	BAL @ MIA	BAL -9.5	BAL -8.5	24%	+12 (MIA 22 - BAL 10)	BAL · miss	BAL -8.5 · miss
W10	ATL @ DAL	DAL -3.5	DAL -8	60%	+40 (DAL 43 - ATL 3)	DAL · HIT	ATL +8 · miss
W10	BUF @ NYJ	BUF -16	BUF -13	12%	-28 (NYJ 17 - BUF 45)	BUF · HIT	BUF -13 · HIT
W10	CAR @ ARI	ARI -9.5	ARI -7	76%	-24 (ARI 10 - CAR 34)	ARI · miss	ARI -7 · miss
W10	CLE @ NE	NE -1	NE -2.5	53%	+38 (NE 45 - CLE 7)	NE · HIT	CLE +2.5 · miss
W10	DET @ PIT	PIT -9	PIT -9	76%	0 (PIT 16 - DET 16)	PIT · miss	PIT -9 · miss
W10	JAX @ IND	IND -11	IND -10.5	80%	+6 (IND 23 - JAX 17)	IND · HIT	IND -10.5 · miss
W10	KC @ LV	KC -2.5	KC -2.5	43%	-27 (LV 14 - KC 41)	KC · HIT	LV +2.5 · miss
W10	MIN @ LAC	LAC -0.5	LAC -3	52%	-7 (LAC 20 - MIN 27)	LAC · miss	MIN +3 · HIT
W10	NO @ TEN	TEN -3	TEN -3	59%	+2 (TEN 23 - NO 21)	TEN · HIT	NO +3 · HIT
W10	PHI @ DEN	pick'em	DEN -1	50%	-17 (DEN 13 - PHI 30)	DEN · miss	PHI +1 · HIT
W10	SEA @ GB	GB -3	GB -3	59%	+17 (GB 17 - SEA 0)	GB · HIT	GB -3 · HIT
W10	TB @ WAS	TB -9.5	TB -10	24%	+10 (WAS 29 - TB 19)	TB · miss	WAS +10 · HIT
W10	LA @ SF	LA -3.5	LA -3.5	40%	+21 (SF 31 - LA 10)	LA · miss	SF +3.5 · HIT
W11	NE @ ATL	NE -7.5	NE -7	29%	-25 (ATL 0 - NE 25)	NE · HIT	NE -7 · HIT
W11	ARI @ SEA	SEA -1	SEA -2.5	52%	-10 (SEA 13 - ARI 23)	SEA · miss	ARI +2.5 · HIT
W11	BAL @ CHI	BAL -4.5	BAL -5	37%	-3 (CHI 13 - BAL 16)	BAL · HIT	CHI +5 · HIT
W11	CIN @ LV	LV -1	CIN -1	54%	-19 (LV 13 - CIN 32)	LV · miss	LV +1 · miss
W11	DAL @ KC	KC -2	KC -2.5	55%	+10 (KC 19 - DAL 9)	KC · HIT	DAL +2.5 · miss
W11	DET @ CLE	CLE -11	CLE -13	79%	+3 (CLE 13 - DET 10)	CLE · HIT	DET +13 · HIT
W11	GB @ MIN	GB -4	GB -1	38%	+3 (MIN 34 - GB 31)	GB · miss	GB -1 · miss
W11	HOU @ TEN	TEN -15	TEN -10.5	87%	-9 (TEN 13 - HOU 22)	TEN · miss	TEN -10.5 · miss
W11	IND @ BUF	BUF -5.5	BUF -7.5	66%	-26 (BUF 15 - IND 41)	BUF · miss	IND +7.5 · HIT
W11	MIA @ NYJ	MIA -5.5	MIA -3.5	34%	-7 (NYJ 17 - MIA 24)	MIA · HIT	MIA -3.5 · HIT
W11	NO @ PHI	pick'em	PHI -2.5	50%	+11 (PHI 40 - NO 29)	NO · miss	NO +2.5 · miss
W11	PIT @ LAC	LAC -0.5	LAC -5.5	51%	+4 (LAC 41 - PIT 37)	LAC · HIT	PIT +5.5 · HIT
W11	SF @ JAX	SF -5	SF -6.5	35%	-20 (JAX 10 - SF 30)	SF · HIT	JAX +6.5 · miss
W11	WAS @ CAR	CAR -2	CAR -3.5	55%	-6 (CAR 21 - WAS 27)	CAR · miss	WAS +3.5 · HIT
W11	NYG @ TB	TB -11	TB -11.5	79%	+20 (TB 30 - NYG 10)	TB · HIT	NYG +11.5 · miss
W12	BUF @ NO	BUF -3	BUF -7	41%	-25 (NO 6 - BUF 31)	BUF · HIT	NO +7 · miss
W12	CHI @ DET	CHI -3	CHI -2	41%	-2 (DET 14 - CHI 16)	CHI · HIT	CHI -2 · push
W12	LV @ DAL	DAL -6	DAL -7	68%	-3 (DAL 33 - LV 36)	DAL · miss	LV +7 · HIT
W12	ATL @ JAX	pick'em	ATL -1.5	51%	-7 (JAX 14 - ATL 21)	JAX · miss	JAX +1.5 · miss
W12	CAR @ MIA	MIA -0.5	CAR -1	52%	+23 (MIA 33 - CAR 10)	MIA · HIT	MIA +1 · HIT
W12	CLE @ BAL	BAL -4.5	BAL -3	63%	+6 (BAL 16 - CLE 10)	BAL · HIT	BAL -3 · HIT
W12	LAC @ DEN	LAC -2	LAC -2.5	45%	+15 (DEN 28 - LAC 13)	LAC · miss	DEN +2.5 · HIT
W12	LA @ GB	GB -4	LA -2	62%	+8 (GB 36 - LA 28)	GB · HIT	GB +2 · HIT
W12	MIN @ SF	SF -2	SF -3.5	56%	+8 (SF 34 - MIN 26)	SF · HIT	MIN +3.5 · miss
W12	NYJ @ HOU	HOU -1.5	HOU -3	55%	-7 (HOU 14 - NYJ 21)	HOU · miss	NYJ +3 · HIT
W12	PHI @ NYG	PHI -4.5	PHI -4	36%	+6 (NYG 13 - PHI 7)	PHI · miss	PHI -4 · miss
W12	PIT @ CIN	pick'em	CIN -3.5	50%	+31 (CIN 41 - PIT 10)	PIT · miss	PIT +3.5 · miss
W12	TB @ IND	TB -1	TB -3	48%	-7 (IND 31 - TB 38)	TB · HIT	IND +3 · miss
W12	TEN @ NE	NE -3	NE -7.5	59%	+23 (NE 36 - TEN 13)	NE · HIT	TEN +7.5 · miss
W12	SEA @ WAS	SEA -2	SEA -1	44%	+2 (WAS 17 - SEA 15)	SEA · miss	SEA -1 · miss
W13	DAL @ NO	DAL -1	DAL -6	47%	-10 (NO 17 - DAL 27)	DAL · HIT	NO +6 · miss
W13	ARI @ CHI	ARI -6.5	ARI -7.5	31%	-11 (CHI 22 - ARI 33)	ARI · HIT	CHI +7.5 · miss
W13	BAL @ PIT	BAL -5	BAL -4	36%	+1 (PIT 20 - BAL 19)	BAL · miss	BAL -4 · miss
W13	DEN @ KC	KC -5	KC -8.5	65%	+13 (KC 22 - DEN 9)	KC · HIT	DEN +8.5 · miss
W13	IND @ HOU	IND -13	IND -10	17%	-31 (HOU 0 - IND 31)	IND · HIT	IND -10 · HIT
W13	JAX @ LA	LA -8.5	LA -14	73%	+30 (LA 37 - JAX 7)	LA · HIT	JAX +14 · miss
W13	LAC @ CIN	CIN -3.5	CIN -2.5	61%	-19 (CIN 22 - LAC 41)	CIN · miss	CIN -2.5 · miss
W13	MIN @ DET	MIN -7	MIN -7	30%	+2 (DET 29 - MIN 27)	MIN · miss	MIN -7 · miss
W13	NYG @ MIA	MIA -4.5	MIA -6.5	63%	+11 (MIA 20 - NYG 9)	MIA · HIT	NYG +6.5 · miss
W13	PHI @ NYJ	PHI -6	PHI -5	33%	-15 (NYJ 18 - PHI 33)	PHI · HIT	PHI -5 · HIT
W13	SF @ SEA	pick'em	SF -3	50%	+7 (SEA 30 - SF 23)	SEA · HIT	SEA +3 · HIT
W13	TB @ ATL	TB -11.5	TB -11	19%	-13 (ATL 17 - TB 30)	TB · HIT	TB -11 · HIT
W13	WAS @ LV	WAS -1.5	LV -1	46%	-2 (LV 15 - WAS 17)	WAS · HIT	WAS +1 · HIT
W13	NE @ BUF	BUF -2	BUF -3	55%	-4 (BUF 10 - NE 14)	BUF · miss	NE +3 · HIT
W14	PIT @ MIN	MIN -2	MIN -3.5	56%	+8 (MIN 36 - PIT 28)	MIN · HIT	PIT +3.5 · miss
W14	ATL @ CAR	CAR -1.5	CAR -2.5	55%	-8 (CAR 21 - ATL 29)	CAR · miss	ATL +2.5 · HIT
W14	BAL @ CLE	BAL -3	CLE -3	41%	+2 (CLE 24 - BAL 22)	BAL · miss	BAL +3 · HIT
W14	BUF @ TB	TB -2	TB -3.5	57%	+6 (TB 33 - BUF 27)	TB · HIT	BUF +3.5 · miss
W14	CHI @ GB	GB -9	GB -11.5	75%	+15 (GB 45 - CHI 30)	GB · HIT	CHI +11.5 · miss
W14	DAL @ WAS	DAL -2.5	DAL -6.5	42%	-7 (WAS 20 - DAL 27)	DAL · HIT	WAS +6.5 · miss
W14	DET @ DEN	DEN -7	DEN -13	69%	+28 (DEN 38 - DET 10)	DEN · HIT	DET +13 · miss
W14	JAX @ TEN	TEN -11.5	TEN -8.5	81%	+20 (TEN 20 - JAX 0)	TEN · HIT	TEN -8.5 · HIT
W14	LV @ KC	KC -7.5	KC -10	71%	+39 (KC 48 - LV 9)	KC · HIT	LV +10 · miss
W14	NO @ NYJ	NO -6	NO -4.5	32%	-21 (NYJ 9 - NO 30)	NO · HIT	NO -4.5 · HIT
W14	NYG @ LAC	LAC -5.5	LAC -9.5	65%	+16 (LAC 37 - NYG 21)	LAC · HIT	NYG +9.5 · miss
W14	SEA @ HOU	SEA -9.5	SEA -10	24%	-20 (HOU 13 - SEA 33)	SEA · HIT	HOU +10 · miss
W14	SF @ CIN	SF -1	SF -2.5	47%	-3 (CIN 23 - SF 26)	SF · HIT	CIN +2.5 · miss
W14	LA @ ARI	ARI -2	ARI -3	57%	-7 (ARI 23 - LA 30)	ARI · miss	LA +3 · HIT
W15	KC @ LAC	KC -4.5	KC -3	36%	-6 (LAC 28 - KC 34)	KC · HIT	KC -3 · HIT
W15	NE @ IND	pick'em	NE -1	50%	+10 (IND 27 - NE 17)	IND · HIT	IND +1 · HIT
W15	ARI @ DET	ARI -11	ARI -13	21%	+18 (DET 30 - ARI 12)	ARI · miss	DET +13 · HIT
W15	ATL @ SF	SF -7.5	SF -9.5	71%	+18 (SF 31 - ATL 13)	SF · HIT	ATL +9.5 · miss
W15	CAR @ BUF	BUF -12	BUF -14	82%	+17 (BUF 31 - CAR 14)	BUF · HIT	CAR +14 · miss
W15	CIN @ DEN	DEN -2.5	DEN -3	58%	-5 (DEN 10 - CIN 15)	DEN · miss	CIN +3 · HIT
W15	DAL @ NYG	DAL -6.5	DAL -11.5	31%	-15 (NYG 6 - DAL 21)	DAL · HIT	NYG +11.5 · miss
W15	GB @ BAL	GB -2.5	GB -9.5	42%	-1 (BAL 30 - GB 31)	GB · HIT	BAL +9.5 · HIT
W15	HOU @ JAX	JAX -2	JAX -6	55%	-14 (JAX 16 - HOU 30)	JAX · miss	HOU +6 · HIT
W15	NO @ TB	TB -7.5	TB -11.5	71%	-9 (TB 0 - NO 9)	TB · miss	NO +11.5 · HIT
W15	NYJ @ MIA	MIA -8.5	MIA -10.5	73%	+7 (MIA 31 - NYJ 24)	MIA · HIT	NYJ +10.5 · HIT
W15	TEN @ PIT	TEN -3.5	PIT -1	40%	+6 (PIT 19 - TEN 13)	TEN · miss	TEN +1 · miss
W15	LV @ CLE	CLE -4.5	LV -3	63%	-2 (CLE 14 - LV 16)	CLE · miss	CLE +3 · HIT
W15	MIN @ CHI	MIN -3.5	MIN -7	39%	-8 (CHI 9 - MIN 17)	MIN · HIT	CHI +7 · miss
W15	SEA @ LA	LA -1	LA -7.5	53%	+10 (LA 20 - SEA 10)	LA · HIT	SEA +7.5 · miss
W15	WAS @ PHI	PHI -7	PHI -10	69%	+10 (PHI 27 - WAS 17)	PHI · HIT	WAS +10 · push
W16	SF @ TEN	TEN -1	SF -3.5	53%	+3 (TEN 20 - SF 17)	TEN · HIT	TEN +3.5 · HIT
W16	CLE @ GB	GB -7	GB -7.5	70%	+2 (GB 24 - CLE 22)	GB · HIT	CLE +7.5 · HIT
W16	IND @ ARI	IND -4	ARI -3	38%	-6 (ARI 16 - IND 22)	IND · HIT	IND +3 · HIT
W16	BAL @ CIN	pick'em	CIN -7.5	50%	+20 (CIN 41 - BAL 21)	BAL · miss	BAL +7.5 · miss
W16	BUF @ NE	NE -0.5	NE -1	51%	-12 (NE 21 - BUF 33)	NE · miss	BUF +1 · HIT
W16	CHI @ SEA	SEA -9.5	SEA -7	76%	-1 (SEA 24 - CHI 25)	SEA · miss	SEA -7 · miss
W16	DEN @ LV	DEN -3	DEN -1	41%	+4 (LV 17 - DEN 13)	DEN · miss	DEN -1 · miss
W16	DET @ ATL	ATL -5	ATL -7.5	64%	+4 (ATL 20 - DET 16)	ATL · HIT	DET +7.5 · HIT
W16	JAX @ NYJ	NYJ -2.5	NYJ -2.5	58%	+5 (NYJ 26 - JAX 21)	NYJ · HIT	NYJ -2.5 · HIT
W16	LAC @ HOU	LAC -9.5	LAC -13.5	24%	+12 (HOU 41 - LAC 29)	LAC · miss	HOU +13.5 · HIT
W16	LA @ MIN	LA -2	LA -3.5	43%	-7 (MIN 23 - LA 30)	LA · HIT	MIN +3.5 · miss
W16	NYG @ PHI	PHI -10	PHI -11	77%	+24 (PHI 34 - NYG 10)	PHI · HIT	NYG +11 · miss
W16	PIT @ KC	KC -9	KC -10.5	75%	+26 (KC 36 - PIT 10)	KC · HIT	PIT +10.5 · miss
W16	TB @ CAR	TB -9	TB -11.5	25%	-26 (CAR 6 - TB 32)	TB · HIT	CAR +11.5 · miss
W16	WAS @ DAL	DAL -5.5	DAL -10.5	66%	+42 (DAL 56 - WAS 14)	DAL · HIT	WAS +10.5 · miss
W16	MIA @ NO	NO -2.5	MIA -3	58%	-17 (NO 3 - MIA 20)	NO · miss	NO +3 · miss
W17	ARI @ DAL	DAL -4.5	DAL -6.5	63%	-3 (DAL 22 - ARI 25)	DAL · miss	ARI +6.5 · HIT
W17	ATL @ BUF	BUF -13	BUF -14	83%	+14 (BUF 29 - ATL 15)	BUF · HIT	ATL +14 · push
W17	CAR @ NO	NO -4.5	NO -7	63%	+8 (NO 18 - CAR 10)	NO · HIT	CAR +7 · miss
W17	DEN @ LAC	LAC -2.5	LAC -8	57%	+21 (LAC 34 - DEN 13)	LAC · HIT	DEN +8 · miss
W17	DET @ SEA	SEA -11	SEA -8.5	79%	+22 (SEA 51 - DET 29)	SEA · HIT	SEA -8.5 · HIT
W17	HOU @ SF	SF -10	SF -14	77%	+16 (SF 23 - HOU 7)	SF · HIT	HOU +14 · miss
W17	JAX @ NE	NE -15.5	NE -17.5	88%	+40 (NE 50 - JAX 10)	NE · HIT	JAX +17.5 · miss
W17	KC @ CIN	KC -4	KC -3.5	39%	+3 (CIN 34 - KC 31)	KC · miss	KC -3.5 · miss
W17	LA @ BAL	LA -3.5	LA -7	40%	-1 (BAL 19 - LA 20)	LA · HIT	BAL +7 · HIT
W17	LV @ IND	IND -11.5	IND -8.5	80%	-3 (IND 20 - LV 23)	IND · miss	IND -8.5 · miss
W17	MIA @ TEN	TEN -4	TEN -3	62%	+31 (TEN 34 - MIA 3)	TEN · HIT	TEN -3 · HIT
W17	MIN @ GB	GB -8	GB -13	73%	+27 (GB 37 - MIN 10)	GB · HIT	MIN +13 · miss
W17	NYG @ CHI	CHI -2.5	CHI -7	58%	+26 (CHI 29 - NYG 3)	CHI · HIT	NYG +7 · miss
W17	PHI @ WAS	PHI -6	PHI -6.5	32%	-4 (WAS 16 - PHI 20)	PHI · HIT	WAS +6.5 · HIT
W17	TB @ NYJ	TB -13	TB -14.5	16%	-4 (NYJ 24 - TB 28)	TB · HIT	NYJ +14.5 · HIT
W17	CLE @ PIT	CLE -1.5	CLE -1	46%	+12 (PIT 26 - CLE 14)	CLE · miss	CLE -1 · miss
W18	DAL @ PHI	DAL -2	DAL -6.5	44%	-25 (PHI 26 - DAL 51)	DAL · HIT	PHI +6.5 · miss
W18	KC @ DEN	KC -9	KC -11.5	25%	-4 (DEN 24 - KC 28)	KC · HIT	DEN +11.5 · HIT
W18	CAR @ TB	TB -12.5	TB -11	83%	+24 (TB 41 - CAR 17)	TB · HIT	TB -11 · HIT
W18	CHI @ MIN	MIN -3	MIN -3.5	59%	+14 (MIN 31 - CHI 17)	MIN · HIT	CHI +3.5 · miss
W18	CIN @ CLE	CIN -0.5	CLE -6.5	49%	+5 (CLE 21 - CIN 16)	CIN · miss	CIN +6.5 · HIT
W18	GB @ DET	GB -12.5	GB -4	17%	+7 (DET 37 - GB 30)	GB · miss	GB -4 · miss
W18	IND @ JAX	IND -14.5	IND -14	14%	+15 (JAX 26 - IND 11)	IND · miss	IND -14 · miss
W18	LAC @ LV	LAC -3.5	LAC -3.5	40%	+3 (LV 35 - LAC 32)	LAC · miss	LV +3.5 · HIT
W18	NE @ MIA	NE -8	NE -6	27%	+9 (MIA 33 - NE 24)	NE · miss	NE -6 · miss
W18	NO @ ATL	NO -3.5	NO -4.5	40%	-10 (ATL 20 - NO 30)	NO · HIT	ATL +4.5 · miss
W18	NYJ @ BUF	BUF -15.5	BUF -16	88%	+17 (BUF 27 - NYJ 10)	BUF · HIT	NYJ +16 · miss
W18	PIT @ BAL	BAL -2.5	BAL -3	57%	-3 (BAL 13 - PIT 16)	BAL · miss	PIT +3 · HIT
W18	SEA @ ARI	ARI -1	ARI -5.5	53%	-8 (ARI 30 - SEA 38)	ARI · miss	SEA +5.5 · HIT
W18	SF @ LA	LA -1	LA -3	53%	-3 (LA 24 - SF 27)	LA · miss	SF +3 · HIT
W18	TEN @ HOU	TEN -11	TEN -10.5	21%	-3 (HOU 25 - TEN 28)	TEN · HIT	TEN -10.5 · miss
W18	WAS @ NYG	WAS -4	WAS -6	38%	-15 (NYG 7 - WAS 22)	WAS · HIT	NYG +6 · miss

2022 season — every game (271)

Wk	Game	Bayesian Model line	Vegas line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home score first)	Bayesian Model winner pick	Bayesian Model spread pick
W1	BUF @ LA	BUF -2.5	BUF -1	42%	-21 (LA 10 - BUF 31)	BUF · HIT	BUF -1 · HIT
W1	BAL @ NYJ	BAL -7	BAL -6.5	30%	-15 (NYJ 9 - BAL 24)	BAL · HIT	BAL -6.5 · HIT
W1	CLE @ CAR	CLE -3	CAR -2.5	42%	-2 (CAR 24 - CLE 26)	CLE · HIT	CLE +2.5 · HIT
W1	GB @ MIN	GB -4.5	MIN -2.5	36%	+16 (MIN 23 - GB 7)	GB · miss	GB +2.5 · miss
W1	IND @ HOU	IND -6.5	IND -7	32%	0 (HOU 20 - IND 20)	IND · miss	HOU +7 · HIT
W1	JAX @ WAS	WAS -4	WAS -3	62%	+6 (WAS 28 - JAX 22)	WAS · HIT	WAS -3 · HIT
W1	KC @ ARI	KC -3.5	KC -6	40%	-23 (ARI 21 - KC 44)	KC · HIT	ARI +6 · miss
W1	LV @ LAC	LAC -3	LAC -3.5	58%	+5 (LAC 24 - LV 19)	LAC · HIT	LV +3.5 · miss
W1	NE @ MIA	NE -5.5	MIA -3	34%	+13 (MIA 20 - NE 7)	NE · miss	NE +3 · miss
W1	NO @ ATL	NO -6	NO -6	32%	-1 (ATL 26 - NO 27)	NO · HIT	NO -6 · miss
W1	NYG @ TEN	TEN -12	TEN -5.5	81%	-1 (TEN 20 - NYG 21)	TEN · miss	TEN -5.5 · miss
W1	PHI @ DET	PHI -6.5	PHI -6	32%	-3 (DET 35 - PHI 38)	PHI · HIT	PHI -6 · miss
W1	PIT @ CIN	CIN -5.5	CIN -7.5	66%	-3 (CIN 20 - PIT 23)	CIN · miss	PIT +7.5 · HIT
W1	SF @ CHI	SF -2.5	SF -6.5	43%	+9 (CHI 19 - SF 10)	SF · miss	CHI +6.5 · HIT
W1	TB @ DAL	TB -0.5	TB -2.5	48%	-16 (DAL 3 - TB 19)	TB · HIT	DAL +2.5 · miss
W1	DEN @ SEA	SEA -6.5	DEN -6	69%	+1 (SEA 17 - DEN 16)	SEA · HIT	SEA +6 · HIT
W2	LAC @ KC	KC -7.5	KC -4	71%	+3 (KC 27 - LAC 24)	KC · HIT	KC -4 · miss
W2	ARI @ LV	ARI -2	LV -5.5	44%	-6 (LV 23 - ARI 29)	ARI · HIT	ARI +5.5 · HIT
W2	ATL @ LA	LA -8.5	LA -10.5	74%	+4 (LA 31 - ATL 27)	LA · HIT	ATL +10.5 · HIT
W2	CAR @ NYG	NYG -2	CAR -1	56%	+3 (NYG 19 - CAR 16)	NYG · HIT	NYG +1 · HIT
W2	CHI @ GB	GB -7	GB -10.5	69%	+17 (GB 27 - CHI 10)	GB · HIT	CHI +10.5 · miss
W2	CIN @ DAL	DAL -1.5	CIN -7.5	54%	+3 (DAL 20 - CIN 17)	DAL · HIT	DAL +7.5 · HIT
W2	HOU @ DEN	DEN -3	DEN -10.5	58%	+7 (DEN 16 - HOU 9)	DEN · HIT	HOU +10.5 · HIT
W2	IND @ JAX	IND -5.5	IND -3	34%	+24 (JAX 24 - IND 0)	IND · miss	IND -3 · miss
W2	MIA @ BAL	BAL -2	BAL -3	56%	-4 (BAL 38 - MIA 42)	BAL · miss	MIA +3 · HIT
W2	NE @ PIT	NE -6	NE -3	33%	-3 (PIT 14 - NE 17)	NE · HIT	NE -3 · push
W2	NYJ @ CLE	CLE -8	CLE -6.5	72%	-1 (CLE 30 - NYJ 31)	CLE · miss	CLE -6.5 · miss
W2	SEA @ SF	SF -1	SF -8.5	53%	+20 (SF 27 - SEA 7)	SF · HIT	SEA +8.5 · miss
W2	TB @ NO	TB -6	TB -2.5	32%	-10 (NO 10 - TB 20)	TB · HIT	TB -2.5 · HIT
W2	WAS @ DET	pick'em	WAS -1	49%	+9 (DET 36 - WAS 27)	WAS · miss	DET +1 · HIT
W2	MIN @ PHI	PHI -2.5	PHI -2.5	57%	+17 (PHI 24 - MIN 7)	PHI · HIT	MIN +2.5 · miss
W2	TEN @ BUF	BUF -5.5	BUF -10	66%	+34 (BUF 41 - TEN 7)	BUF · HIT	TEN +10 · miss
W3	PIT @ CLE	CLE -2.5	CLE -4.5	58%	+12 (CLE 29 - PIT 17)	CLE · HIT	PIT +4.5 · miss
W3	ATL @ SEA	SEA -7	SEA -1	70%	-4 (SEA 23 - ATL 27)	SEA · miss	SEA -1 · miss
W3	BAL @ NE	NE -6	BAL -2.5	67%	-11 (NE 26 - BAL 37)	NE · miss	NE +2.5 · miss
W3	BUF @ MIA	BUF -5.5	BUF -4	34%	+2 (MIA 21 - BUF 19)	BUF · miss	BUF -4 · miss
W3	CIN @ NYJ	CIN -7	CIN -6.5	31%	-15 (NYJ 12 - CIN 27)	CIN · HIT	CIN -6.5 · HIT
W3	DET @ MIN	MIN -4.5	MIN -6.5	63%	+4 (MIN 28 - DET 24)	MIN · HIT	DET +6.5 · HIT
W3	GB @ TB	TB -4	TB -1	62%	-2 (TB 12 - GB 14)	TB · miss	TB -1 · miss
W3	HOU @ CHI	CHI -4.5	CHI -3	63%	+3 (CHI 23 - HOU 20)	CHI · HIT	CHI -3 · push
W3	JAX @ LAC	LAC -5.5	LAC -6.5	67%	-28 (LAC 10 - JAX 38)	LAC · miss	JAX +6.5 · HIT
W3	KC @ IND	KC -5.5	KC -4.5	34%	+3 (IND 20 - KC 17)	KC · miss	KC -4.5 · miss
W3	LA @ ARI	LA -1	LA -3.5	47%	-8 (ARI 12 - LA 20)	LA · HIT	ARI +3.5 · miss
W3	LV @ TEN	TEN -5	LV -1.5	64%	+2 (TEN 24 - LV 22)	TEN · HIT	TEN +1.5 · HIT
W3	NO @ CAR	NO -3.5	NO -2	39%	+8 (CAR 22 - NO 14)	NO · miss	NO -2 · miss
W3	PHI @ WAS	PHI -5	PHI -6	35%	-16 (WAS 8 - PHI 24)	PHI · HIT	WAS +6 · miss
W3	SF @ DEN	SF -4.5	SF -1	37%	+1 (DEN 11 - SF 10)	SF · miss	SF -1 · miss
W3	DAL @ NYG	DAL -5.5	NYG -1	35%	-7 (NYG 16 - DAL 23)	DAL · HIT	DAL +1 · HIT
W4	MIA @ CIN	CIN -1.5	CIN -4	55%	+12 (CIN 27 - MIA 15)	CIN · HIT	MIA +4 · miss
W4	ARI @ CAR	ARI -3.5	CAR -1	39%	-10 (CAR 16 - ARI 26)	ARI · HIT	ARI +1 · HIT
W4	BUF @ BAL	BUF -4.5	BUF -3	37%	-3 (BAL 20 - BUF 23)	BUF · HIT	BUF -3 · push
W4	CHI @ NYG	CHI -1.5	NYG -3	45%	+8 (NYG 20 - CHI 12)	CHI · miss	CHI +3 · miss
W4	CLE @ ATL	CLE -2	CLE -1	44%	+3 (ATL 23 - CLE 20)	CLE · miss	CLE -1 · miss
W4	DEN @ LV	LV -1.5	LV -2.5	54%	+9 (LV 32 - DEN 23)	LV · HIT	DEN +2.5 · miss
W4	JAX @ PHI	PHI -7	PHI -6.5	70%	+8 (PHI 29 - JAX 21)	PHI · HIT	PHI -6.5 · HIT
W4	KC @ TB	TB -2	TB -1	55%	-10 (TB 31 - KC 41)	TB · miss	TB -1 · miss
W4	LAC @ HOU	LAC -3	LAC -5.5	41%	-10 (HOU 24 - LAC 34)	LAC · HIT	HOU +5.5 · miss
W4	MIN @ NO	MIN -1	MIN -4	47%	-3 (NO 25 - MIN 28)	MIN · HIT	NO +4 · HIT
W4	NE @ GB	GB -5.5	GB -10	66%	+3 (GB 27 - NE 24)	GB · HIT	NE +10 · HIT
W4	NYJ @ PIT	PIT -5.5	PIT -3	66%	-4 (PIT 20 - NYJ 24)	PIT · miss	PIT -3 · miss
W4	SEA @ DET	SEA -2.5	DET -3	43%	-3 (DET 45 - SEA 48)	SEA · HIT	SEA +3 · HIT
W4	TEN @ IND	pick'em	IND -4.5	50%	-7 (IND 17 - TEN 24)	IND · miss	TEN +4.5 · HIT
W4	WAS @ DAL	DAL -6.5	DAL -3	69%	+15 (DAL 25 - WAS 10)	DAL · HIT	DAL -3 · HIT
W4	LA @ SF	SF -2	SF -1	55%	+15 (SF 24 - LA 9)	SF · HIT	SF -1 · HIT
W5	IND @ DEN	IND -0.5	DEN -3.5	49%	-3 (DEN 9 - IND 12)	IND · HIT	IND +3.5 · HIT
W5	ATL @ TB	TB -11	TB -10.5	80%	+6 (TB 21 - ATL 15)	TB · HIT	TB -10.5 · miss
W5	CHI @ MIN	MIN -3.5	MIN -10	61%	+7 (MIN 29 - CHI 22)	MIN · HIT	CHI +10 · HIT
W5	CIN @ BAL	BAL -1.5	BAL -3	55%	+2 (BAL 19 - CIN 17)	BAL · HIT	CIN +3 · HIT
W5	DAL @ LA	pick'em	LA -5.5	50%	-12 (LA 10 - DAL 22)	DAL · HIT	DAL +5.5 · HIT
W5	DET @ NE	NE -5	NE -3	65%	+29 (NE 29 - DET 0)	NE · HIT	NE -3 · HIT
W5	HOU @ JAX	JAX -4	JAX -7	62%	-7 (JAX 6 - HOU 13)	JAX · miss	HOU +7 · HIT
W5	LAC @ CLE	CLE -1	LAC -1	53%	-2 (CLE 28 - LAC 30)	CLE · miss	CLE +1 · miss
W5	MIA @ NYJ	MIA -2	MIA -3	44%	+23 (NYJ 40 - MIA 17)	MIA · miss	NYJ +3 · HIT
W5	NYG @ GB	GB -10.5	GB -8.5	79%	-5 (GB 22 - NYG 27)	GB · miss	GB -8.5 · miss
W5	PHI @ ARI	PHI -2	PHI -5.5	43%	-3 (ARI 17 - PHI 20)	PHI · HIT	ARI +5.5 · HIT
W5	PIT @ BUF	BUF -12.5	BUF -14	82%	+35 (BUF 38 - PIT 3)	BUF · HIT	PIT +14 · miss
W5	SEA @ NO	SEA -2	NO -5.5	44%	+7 (NO 39 - SEA 32)	SEA · miss	SEA +5.5 · miss
W5	SF @ CAR	SF -7.5	SF -6	29%	-22 (CAR 15 - SF 37)	SF · HIT	SF -6 · HIT
W5	TEN @ WAS	TEN -5	TEN -1	36%	-4 (WAS 17 - TEN 21)	TEN · HIT	TEN -1 · HIT
W5	LV @ KC	KC -9	KC -7.5	76%	+1 (KC 30 - LV 29)	KC · HIT	KC -7.5 · miss
W6	WAS @ CHI	CHI -3.5	WAS -1	60%	-5 (CHI 7 - WAS 12)	CHI · miss	CHI +1 · miss
W6	ARI @ SEA	SEA -1	ARI -2.5	52%	+10 (SEA 19 - ARI 9)	SEA · HIT	SEA +2.5 · HIT
W6	BAL @ NYG	BAL -3.5	BAL -5.5	39%	+4 (NYG 24 - BAL 20)	BAL · miss	NYG +5.5 · HIT
W6	BUF @ KC	BUF -1	BUF -2.5	48%	-4 (KC 20 - BUF 24)	BUF · HIT	KC +2.5 · miss
W6	CAR @ LA	LA -8.5	LA -10	74%	+14 (LA 24 - CAR 10)	LA · HIT	CAR +10 · miss
W6	CIN @ NO	CIN -3	CIN -3	41%	-4 (NO 26 - CIN 30)	CIN · HIT	NO +3 · miss
W6	DAL @ PHI	PHI -3	PHI -6.5	58%	+9 (PHI 26 - DAL 17)	PHI · HIT	DAL +6.5 · miss
W6	JAX @ IND	IND -3.5	IND -1	61%	+7 (IND 34 - JAX 27)	IND · HIT	IND -1 · HIT
W6	MIN @ MIA	MIN -2	MIN -3	44%	-8 (MIA 16 - MIN 24)	MIN · HIT	MIA +3 · miss
W6	NE @ CLE	NE -1	CLE -2.5	47%	-23 (CLE 15 - NE 38)	NE · HIT	NE +2.5 · HIT
W6	NYJ @ GB	GB -9.5	GB -7.5	77%	-17 (GB 10 - NYJ 27)	GB · miss	GB -7.5 · miss
W6	SF @ ATL	SF -6.5	SF -3.5	31%	+14 (ATL 28 - SF 14)	SF · miss	SF -3.5 · miss
W6	TB @ PIT	TB -8	TB -10	27%	+2 (PIT 20 - TB 18)	TB · miss	PIT +10 · HIT
W6	DEN @ LAC	LAC -4	LAC -3.5	62%	+3 (LAC 19 - DEN 16)	LAC · HIT	LAC -3.5 · miss
W7	NO @ ARI	ARI -3.5	ARI -2.5	60%	+8 (ARI 42 - NO 34)	ARI · HIT	ARI -2.5 · HIT
W7	ATL @ CIN	CIN -6	CIN -6.5	68%	+18 (CIN 35 - ATL 17)	CIN · HIT	ATL +6.5 · miss
W7	CLE @ BAL	BAL -6	BAL -6.5	67%	+3 (BAL 23 - CLE 20)	BAL · HIT	CLE +6.5 · HIT
W7	DET @ DAL	DAL -8	DAL -7	72%	+18 (DAL 24 - DET 6)	DAL · HIT	DAL -7 · HIT
W7	GB @ WAS	GB -4	GB -4	39%	+2 (WAS 23 - GB 21)	GB · miss	WAS +4 · HIT
W7	HOU @ LV	LV -3	LV -7	60%	+18 (LV 38 - HOU 20)	LV · HIT	HOU +7 · miss
W7	IND @ TEN	TEN -4.5	TEN -2.5	63%	+9 (TEN 19 - IND 10)	TEN · HIT	TEN -2.5 · HIT
W7	KC @ SF	KC -1	KC -1	47%	-21 (SF 23 - KC 44)	KC · HIT	SF +1 · miss
W7	NYG @ JAX	JAX -2.5	JAX -3	58%	-6 (JAX 17 - NYG 23)	JAX · miss	NYG +3 · HIT
W7	NYJ @ DEN	pick'em	NYJ -2	50%	-7 (DEN 9 - NYJ 16)	DEN · miss	DEN +2 · miss
W7	PIT @ MIA	MIA -5	MIA -7.5	64%	+6 (MIA 16 - PIT 10)	MIA · HIT	PIT +7.5 · HIT
W7	SEA @ LAC	LAC -0.5	LAC -5.5	52%	-14 (LAC 23 - SEA 37)	LAC · miss	SEA +5.5 · HIT
W7	TB @ CAR	TB -9	TB -13	24%	+18 (CAR 21 - TB 3)	TB · miss	CAR +13 · HIT
W7	CHI @ NE	NE -9.5	NE -9.5	77%	-19 (NE 14 - CHI 33)	NE · miss	NE -9.5 · miss
W8	BAL @ TB	TB -3	TB -2	58%	-5 (TB 22 - BAL 27)	TB · miss	TB -2 · miss
W8	ARI @ MIN	MIN -0.5	MIN -4	51%	+8 (MIN 34 - ARI 26)	MIN · HIT	ARI +4 · miss
W8	CAR @ ATL	ATL -3	ATL -4.5	59%	+3 (ATL 37 - CAR 34)	ATL · HIT	CAR +4.5 · HIT
W8	CHI @ DAL	DAL -7	DAL -10.5	70%	+20 (DAL 49 - CHI 29)	DAL · HIT	CHI +10.5 · miss
W8	DEN @ JAX	JAX -2.5	JAX -1	57%	-4 (JAX 17 - DEN 21)	JAX · miss	JAX -1 · miss
W8	GB @ BUF	BUF -7.5	BUF -10.5	72%	+10 (BUF 27 - GB 17)	BUF · HIT	GB +10.5 · HIT
W8	LV @ NO	LV -2	LV -1	44%	+24 (NO 24 - LV 0)	LV · miss	LV -1 · miss
W8	MIA @ DET	MIA -3.5	MIA -3.5	40%	-4 (DET 27 - MIA 31)	MIA · HIT	DET +3.5 · miss
W8	NE @ NYJ	NE -3	NE -3	41%	-5 (NYJ 17 - NE 22)	NE · HIT	NYJ +3 · miss
W8	NYG @ SEA	SEA -4.5	SEA -3	64%	+14 (SEA 27 - NYG 13)	SEA · HIT	SEA -3 · HIT
W8	PIT @ PHI	PHI -9.5	PHI -11	77%	+22 (PHI 35 - PIT 13)	PHI · HIT	PIT +11 · miss
W8	SF @ LA	LA -1	SF -1	53%	-17 (LA 14 - SF 31)	LA · miss	LA +1 · miss
W8	TEN @ HOU	TEN -2.5	TEN -1	43%	-7 (HOU 10 - TEN 17)	TEN · HIT	TEN -1 · HIT
W8	WAS @ IND	IND -1	IND -3	53%	-1 (IND 16 - WAS 17)	IND · miss	WAS +3 · HIT
W8	CIN @ CLE	CIN -2.5	CIN -3	43%	+19 (CLE 32 - CIN 13)	CIN · miss	CLE +3 · HIT
W9	PHI @ HOU	PHI -9	PHI -14	25%	-12 (HOU 17 - PHI 29)	PHI · HIT	HOU +14 · HIT
W9	BUF @ NYJ	BUF -7.5	BUF -11	28%	+3 (NYJ 20 - BUF 17)	BUF · miss	NYJ +11 · HIT
W9	CAR @ CIN	CIN -8	CIN -7	73%	+21 (CIN 42 - CAR 21)	CIN · HIT	CIN -7 · HIT
W9	GB @ DET	GB -5.5	GB -4	34%	+6 (DET 15 - GB 9)	GB · miss	GB -4 · miss
W9	IND @ NE	NE -7	NE -5	70%	+23 (NE 26 - IND 3)	NE · HIT	NE -5 · HIT
W9	LAC @ ATL	pick'em	LAC -2.5	50%	-3 (ATL 17 - LAC 20)	ATL · miss	ATL +2.5 · miss
W9	LA @ TB	TB -3.5	TB -3	61%	+3 (TB 16 - LA 13)	TB · HIT	TB -3 · push
W9	LV @ JAX	JAX -0.5	LV -2.5	52%	+7 (JAX 27 - LV 20)	JAX · HIT	JAX +2.5 · HIT
W9	MIA @ CHI	CHI -0.5	MIA -4	52%	-3 (CHI 32 - MIA 35)	CHI · miss	CHI +4 · HIT
W9	MIN @ WAS	MIN -2.5	MIN -3	42%	-3 (WAS 17 - MIN 20)	MIN · HIT	WAS +3 · push
W9	SEA @ ARI	ARI -1.5	ARI -1.5	55%	-10 (ARI 21 - SEA 31)	ARI · miss	ARI -1.5 · miss
W9	TEN @ KC	KC -8.5	KC -14	74%	+3 (KC 20 - TEN 17)	KC · HIT	TEN +14 · HIT
W9	BAL @ NO	BAL -1.5	BAL -1	45%	-14 (NO 13 - BAL 27)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1 · HIT
W10	ATL @ CAR	ATL -1	ATL -2.5	48%	+10 (CAR 25 - ATL 15)	ATL · miss	CAR +2.5 · HIT
W10	ARI @ LA	LA -0.5	LA -3.5	51%	-10 (LA 17 - ARI 27)	LA · miss	ARI +3.5 · HIT
W10	CLE @ MIA	MIA -1.5	MIA -3	54%	+22 (MIA 39 - CLE 17)	MIA · HIT	CLE +3 · miss
W10	DAL @ GB	DAL -2	DAL -3.5	44%	+3 (GB 31 - DAL 28)	DAL · miss	GB +3.5 · HIT
W10	DEN @ TEN	TEN -6	TEN -2.5	68%	+7 (TEN 17 - DEN 10)	TEN · HIT	TEN -2.5 · HIT
W10	DET @ CHI	CHI -4	CHI -3	62%	-1 (CHI 30 - DET 31)	CHI · miss	CHI -3 · miss
W10	HOU @ NYG	NYG -3.5	NYG -5.5	60%	+8 (NYG 24 - HOU 16)	NYG · HIT	HOU +5.5 · miss
W10	IND @ LV	LV -1	LV -4.5	53%	-5 (LV 20 - IND 25)	LV · miss	IND +4.5 · HIT
W10	JAX @ KC	KC -9	KC -10	76%	+10 (KC 27 - JAX 17)	KC · HIT	JAX +10 · push
W10	LAC @ SF	SF -5	SF -8.5	65%	+6 (SF 22 - LAC 16)	SF · HIT	LAC +8.5 · HIT
W10	MIN @ BUF	BUF -7.5	BUF -6.5	72%	-3 (BUF 30 - MIN 33)	BUF · miss	BUF -6.5 · miss
W10	NO @ PIT	NO -1.5	PIT -1	46%	+10 (PIT 20 - NO 10)	NO · miss	NO +1 · miss
W10	SEA @ TB	TB -1.5	TB -2.5	54%	+5 (TB 21 - SEA 16)	TB · HIT	SEA +2.5 · miss
W10	WAS @ PHI	PHI -10	PHI -11	78%	-11 (PHI 21 - WAS 32)	PHI · miss	WAS +11 · HIT
W11	TEN @ GB	GB -2	GB -3	56%	-10 (GB 17 - TEN 27)	GB · miss	TEN +3 · HIT
W11	CAR @ BAL	BAL -9	BAL -13	75%	+10 (BAL 13 - CAR 3)	BAL · HIT	CAR +13 · HIT
W11	CHI @ ATL	CHI -0.5	ATL -3	49%	+3 (ATL 27 - CHI 24)	CHI · miss	CHI +3 · push
W11	CIN @ PIT	CIN -4	CIN -3.5	37%	-7 (PIT 30 - CIN 37)	CIN · HIT	CIN -3.5 · HIT
W11	CLE @ BUF	BUF -8	BUF -7.5	73%	+8 (BUF 31 - CLE 23)	BUF · HIT	BUF -7.5 · HIT
W11	DAL @ MIN	DAL -2	DAL -1.5	44%	-37 (MIN 3 - DAL 40)	DAL · HIT	DAL -1.5 · HIT
W11	DET @ NYG	NYG -3	NYG -3	58%	-13 (NYG 18 - DET 31)	NYG · miss	DET +3 · HIT
W11	KC @ LAC	KC -5.5	KC -5.5	33%	-3 (LAC 27 - KC 30)	KC · HIT	KC -5.5 · miss
W11	LA @ NO	LA -1	NO -2.5	46%	+7 (NO 27 - LA 20)	LA · miss	LA +2.5 · miss
W11	LV @ DEN	DEN -1.5	DEN -2.5	55%	-6 (DEN 16 - LV 22)	DEN · miss	LV +2.5 · HIT
W11	NYJ @ NE	NE -7	NE -3.5	71%	+7 (NE 10 - NYJ 3)	NE · HIT	NE -3.5 · HIT
W11	PHI @ IND	PHI -6.5	PHI -6.5	31%	-1 (IND 16 - PHI 17)	PHI · HIT	IND +6.5 · HIT
W11	WAS @ HOU	WAS -2.5	WAS -3	42%	-13 (HOU 10 - WAS 23)	WAS · HIT	HOU +3 · miss
W11	SF @ ARI	SF -2	SF -10	43%	-28 (ARI 10 - SF 38)	SF · HIT	ARI +10 · miss
W12	BUF @ DET	BUF -8.5	BUF -10	26%	-3 (DET 25 - BUF 28)	BUF · HIT	DET +10 · HIT
W12	NE @ MIN	NE -3.5	MIN -2.5	39%	+7 (MIN 33 - NE 26)	NE · miss	NE +2.5 · miss
W12	NYG @ DAL	DAL -9.5	DAL -10.5	77%	+8 (DAL 28 - NYG 20)	DAL · HIT	NYG +10.5 · HIT
W12	ATL @ WAS	WAS -3	WAS -3.5	59%	+6 (WAS 19 - ATL 13)	WAS · HIT	ATL +3.5 · miss
W12	BAL @ JAX	BAL -3.5	BAL -3.5	40%	+1 (JAX 28 - BAL 27)	BAL · miss	JAX +3.5 · HIT
W12	CHI @ NYJ	NYJ -1.5	NYJ -8.5	55%	+21 (NYJ 31 - CHI 10)	NYJ · HIT	CHI +8.5 · miss
W12	CIN @ TEN	TEN -1	CIN -1	53%	-4 (TEN 16 - CIN 20)	TEN · miss	TEN +1 · miss
W12	DEN @ CAR	DEN -0.5	DEN -1	48%	+13 (CAR 23 - DEN 10)	DEN · miss	CAR +1 · HIT
W12	GB @ PHI	PHI -4.5	PHI -6.5	64%	+7 (PHI 40 - GB 33)	PHI · HIT	GB +6.5 · miss
W12	HOU @ MIA	MIA -10.5	MIA -14	79%	+15 (MIA 30 - HOU 15)	MIA · HIT	HOU +14 · miss
W12	LAC @ ARI	pick'em	LAC -2.5	51%	-1 (ARI 24 - LAC 25)	ARI · miss	ARI +2.5 · HIT
W12	LA @ KC	KC -10.5	KC -16.5	79%	+16 (KC 26 - LA 10)	KC · HIT	LA +16.5 · HIT
W12	LV @ SEA	SEA -4.5	SEA -4	64%	-6 (SEA 34 - LV 40)	SEA · miss	SEA -4 · miss
W12	NO @ SF	SF -7	SF -9.5	71%	+13 (SF 13 - NO 0)	SF · HIT	NO +9.5 · miss
W12	TB @ CLE	TB -2.5	TB -3	42%	+6 (CLE 23 - TB 17)	TB · miss	CLE +3 · HIT
W12	PIT @ IND	IND -2	IND -2.5	56%	-7 (IND 17 - PIT 24)	IND · miss	PIT +2.5 · HIT
W13	BUF @ NE	BUF -1	BUF -3.5	46%	-14 (NE 10 - BUF 24)	BUF · HIT	NE +3.5 · miss
W13	CLE @ HOU	CLE -4	CLE -7.5	37%	-13 (HOU 14 - CLE 27)	CLE · HIT	HOU +7.5 · miss
W13	DEN @ BAL	BAL -8	BAL -9.5	73%	+1 (BAL 10 - DEN 9)	BAL · HIT	DEN +9.5 · HIT
W13	GB @ CHI	GB -1	GB -4	47%	-9 (CHI 19 - GB 28)	GB · HIT	CHI +4 · miss
W13	IND @ DAL	DAL -8	DAL -11	73%	+35 (DAL 54 - IND 19)	DAL · HIT	IND +11 · miss
W13	JAX @ DET	DET -0.5	DET -1	51%	+26 (DET 40 - JAX 14)	DET · HIT	JAX +1 · miss
W13	KC @ CIN	KC -1	KC -2.5	48%	+3 (CIN 27 - KC 24)	KC · miss	CIN +2.5 · HIT
W13	LAC @ LV	LV -0.5	LV -2.5	52%	+7 (LV 27 - LAC 20)	LV · HIT	LAC +2.5 · miss
W13	MIA @ SF	SF -5	SF -4.5	64%	+16 (SF 33 - MIA 17)	SF · HIT	SF -4.5 · HIT
W13	NYJ @ MIN	MIN -3	MIN -3	60%	+5 (MIN 27 - NYJ 22)	MIN · HIT	MIN -3 · HIT
W13	PIT @ ATL	ATL -1	PIT -1	53%	-3 (ATL 16 - PIT 19)	ATL · miss	ATL +1 · miss
W13	SEA @ LA	SEA -4	SEA -7	38%	-4 (LA 23 - SEA 27)	SEA · HIT	LA +7 · HIT
W13	TEN @ PHI	PHI -4	PHI -5	63%	+25 (PHI 35 - TEN 10)	PHI · HIT	TEN +5 · miss
W13	WAS @ NYG	pick'em	WAS -2.5	51%	0 (NYG 20 - WAS 20)	NYG · miss	NYG +2.5 · HIT
W13	NO @ TB	TB -6	TB -3.5	68%	+1 (TB 17 - NO 16)	TB · HIT	TB -3.5 · miss
W14	LV @ LA	LV -3	LV -6.5	41%	+1 (LA 17 - LV 16)	LV · miss	LA +6.5 · HIT
W14	BAL @ PIT	BAL -1	PIT -1.5	47%	-2 (PIT 14 - BAL 16)	BAL · HIT	BAL +1.5 · HIT
W14	CAR @ SEA	SEA -6.5	SEA -3.5	69%	-6 (SEA 24 - CAR 30)	SEA · miss	SEA -3.5 · miss
W14	CLE @ CIN	CIN -7.5	CIN -4.5	72%	+13 (CIN 23 - CLE 10)	CIN · HIT	CIN -4.5 · HIT
W14	HOU @ DAL	DAL -14	DAL -17	86%	+4 (DAL 27 - HOU 23)	DAL · HIT	HOU +17 · HIT
W14	JAX @ TEN	TEN -5.5	TEN -3	67%	-14 (TEN 22 - JAX 36)	TEN · miss	TEN -3 · miss
W14	KC @ DEN	KC -7	KC -8.5	30%	-6 (DEN 28 - KC 34)	KC · HIT	DEN +8.5 · HIT
W14	MIA @ LAC	MIA -0.5	MIA -3	49%	+6 (LAC 23 - MIA 17)	MIA · miss	LAC +3 · HIT
W14	MIN @ DET	pick'em	DET -2.5	49%	+11 (DET 34 - MIN 23)	MIN · miss	MIN +2.5 · miss
W14	NYJ @ BUF	BUF -11	BUF -10	81%	+8 (BUF 20 - NYJ 12)	BUF · HIT	BUF -10 · miss
W14	PHI @ NYG	PHI -6	PHI -7.5	32%	-26 (NYG 22 - PHI 48)	PHI · HIT	NYG +7.5 · miss
W14	TB @ SF	SF -2.5	SF -3.5	57%	+28 (SF 35 - TB 7)	SF · HIT	TB +3.5 · miss
W14	NE @ ARI	NE -2.5	NE -2	42%	-14 (ARI 13 - NE 27)	NE · HIT	NE -2 · HIT
W15	SF @ SEA	SF -1.5	SF -3	46%	-8 (SEA 13 - SF 21)	SF · HIT	SEA +3 · miss
W15	BAL @ CLE	BAL -2	CLE -2.5	44%	+10 (CLE 13 - BAL 3)	BAL · miss	BAL +2.5 · miss
W15	IND @ MIN	MIN -3.5	MIN -3.5	60%	+3 (MIN 39 - IND 36)	MIN · HIT	IND +3.5 · HIT
W15	MIA @ BUF	BUF -8	BUF -7	74%	+3 (BUF 32 - MIA 29)	BUF · HIT	BUF -7 · miss
W15	ARI @ DEN	DEN -0.5	DEN -1.5	52%	+9 (DEN 24 - ARI 15)	DEN · HIT	ARI +1.5 · miss
W15	ATL @ NO	NO -2.5	NO -5	58%	+3 (NO 21 - ATL 18)	NO · HIT	ATL +5 · HIT
W15	CIN @ TB	CIN -1.5	CIN -3.5	45%	-11 (TB 23 - CIN 34)	CIN · HIT	TB +3.5 · miss
W15	DAL @ JAX	DAL -7.5	DAL -4	28%	+6 (JAX 40 - DAL 34)	DAL · miss	DAL -4 · miss
W15	DET @ NYJ	NYJ -1	NYJ -2	53%	-3 (NYJ 17 - DET 20)	NYJ · miss	DET +2 · HIT
W15	KC @ HOU	KC -11	KC -14.5	20%	-6 (HOU 24 - KC 30)	KC · HIT	HOU +14.5 · HIT
W15	NE @ LV	NE -2	LV -1	43%	+6 (LV 30 - NE 24)	NE · miss	NE +1 · miss
W15	NYG @ WAS	WAS -5	WAS -4.5	66%	-8 (WAS 12 - NYG 20)	WAS · miss	WAS -4.5 · miss
W15	PHI @ CHI	PHI -7	PHI -8.5	29%	-5 (CHI 20 - PHI 25)	PHI · HIT	CHI +8.5 · HIT
W15	PIT @ CAR	CAR -1	CAR -2.5	52%	-8 (CAR 16 - PIT 24)	CAR · miss	PIT +2.5 · HIT
W15	TEN @ LAC	LAC -1	LAC -3	53%	+3 (LAC 17 - TEN 14)	LAC · HIT	TEN +3 · push
W15	LA @ GB	GB -7.5	GB -8	72%	+12 (GB 24 - LA 12)	GB · HIT	LA +8 · miss
W16	JAX @ NYJ	NYJ -2.5	NYJ -2.5	57%	-16 (NYJ 3 - JAX 19)	NYJ · miss	JAX +2.5 · HIT
W16	ATL @ BAL	BAL -6	BAL -6.5	68%	+8 (BAL 17 - ATL 9)	BAL · HIT	ATL +6.5 · miss
W16	BUF @ CHI	BUF -6.5	BUF -8	30%	-22 (CHI 13 - BUF 35)	BUF · HIT	CHI +8 · miss
W16	CIN @ NE	pick'em	CIN -3	51%	-4 (NE 18 - CIN 22)	NE · miss	NE +3 · miss
W16	DET @ CAR	DET -2.5	DET -2.5	43%	+14 (CAR 37 - DET 23)	DET · miss	CAR +2.5 · HIT
W16	HOU @ TEN	TEN -4.5	TEN -3	64%	-5 (TEN 14 - HOU 19)	TEN · miss	TEN -3 · miss
W16	LV @ PIT	PIT -1	PIT -2.5	53%	+3 (PIT 13 - LV 10)	PIT · HIT	LV +2.5 · miss
W16	NO @ CLE	CLE -2	CLE -3	56%	-7 (CLE 10 - NO 17)	CLE · miss	NO +3 · HIT
W16	NYG @ MIN	MIN -2.5	MIN -4.5	57%	+3 (MIN 27 - NYG 24)	MIN · HIT	NYG +4.5 · HIT
W16	PHI @ DAL	DAL -2.5	DAL -4	58%	+6 (DAL 40 - PHI 34)	DAL · HIT	PHI +4 · miss
W16	SEA @ KC	KC -7.5	KC -10.5	72%	+14 (KC 24 - SEA 10)	KC · HIT	SEA +10.5 · miss
W16	WAS @ SF	SF -7	SF -6.5	71%	+17 (SF 37 - WAS 20)	SF · HIT	SF -6.5 · HIT
W16	DEN @ LA	DEN -1	DEN -3	47%	+37 (LA 51 - DEN 14)	DEN · miss	LA +3 · HIT
W16	GB @ MIA	MIA -0.5	MIA -3.5	52%	-6 (MIA 20 - GB 26)	MIA · miss	GB +3.5 · HIT
W16	TB @ ARI	TB -2.5	TB -7.5	43%	-3 (ARI 16 - TB 19)	TB · HIT	ARI +7.5 · HIT
W16	LAC @ IND	LAC -4.5	LAC -3.5	36%	-17 (IND 3 - LAC 20)	LAC · HIT	LAC -3.5 · HIT
W17	DAL @ TEN	DAL -7.5	DAL -14	28%	-14 (TEN 13 - DAL 27)	DAL · HIT	TEN +14 · push
W17	ARI @ ATL	ATL -2	ATL -7	56%	+1 (ATL 20 - ARI 19)	ATL · HIT	ARI +7 · HIT
W17	CAR @ TB	TB -4	TB -3.5	63%	+6 (TB 30 - CAR 24)	TB · HIT	TB -3.5 · HIT
W17	CHI @ DET	DET -4	DET -4.5	62%	+31 (DET 41 - CHI 10)	DET · HIT	CHI +4.5 · miss
W17	CLE @ WAS	WAS -1.5	WAS -1	54%	-14 (WAS 10 - CLE 24)	WAS · miss	WAS -1 · miss
W17	DEN @ KC	KC -12	KC -13.5	82%	+3 (KC 27 - DEN 24)	KC · HIT	DEN +13.5 · HIT
W17	IND @ NYG	NYG -6	NYG -5.5	68%	+28 (NYG 38 - IND 10)	NYG · HIT	NYG -5.5 · HIT
W17	JAX @ HOU	JAX -4	JAX -3.5	39%	-28 (HOU 3 - JAX 31)	JAX · HIT	JAX -3.5 · HIT
W17	LA @ LAC	LAC -3.5	LAC -6.5	60%	+21 (LAC 31 - LA 10)	LAC · HIT	LA +6.5 · miss
W17	MIA @ NE	NE -5	NE -3	65%	+2 (NE 23 - MIA 21)	NE · HIT	NE -3 · miss
W17	MIN @ GB	GB -4.5	GB -3	64%	+24 (GB 41 - MIN 17)	GB · HIT	GB -3 · HIT
W17	NO @ PHI	PHI -6.5	PHI -5.5	69%	-10 (PHI 10 - NO 20)	PHI · miss	PHI -5.5 · miss
W17	NYJ @ SEA	SEA -5	NYJ -1	65%	+17 (SEA 23 - NYJ 6)	SEA · HIT	SEA +1 · HIT
W17	PIT @ BAL	BAL -3.5	BAL -1	61%	-3 (BAL 13 - PIT 16)	BAL · miss	BAL -1 · miss
W17	SF @ LV	SF -6.5	SF -10	31%	-3 (LV 34 - SF 37)	SF · HIT	LV +10 · HIT
W18	KC @ LV	KC -7.5	KC -9	29%	-18 (LV 13 - KC 31)	KC · HIT	LV +9 · miss
W18	TEN @ JAX	JAX -7	JAX -6	70%	+4 (JAX 20 - TEN 16)	JAX · HIT	JAX -6 · miss
W18	ARI @ SF	SF -11	SF -14	80%	+25 (SF 38 - ARI 13)	SF · HIT	ARI +14 · miss
W18	BAL @ CIN	CIN -6.5	CIN -11	69%	+11 (CIN 27 - BAL 16)	CIN · HIT	BAL +11 · push
W18	CAR @ NO	NO -3.5	NO -3.5	61%	-3 (NO 7 - CAR 10)	NO · miss	NO -3.5 · miss
W18	CLE @ PIT	PIT -2.5	PIT -2.5	58%	+14 (PIT 28 - CLE 14)	PIT · HIT	PIT -2.5 · HIT
W18	DAL @ WAS	DAL -9	DAL -7.5	25%	+20 (WAS 26 - DAL 6)	DAL · miss	DAL -7.5 · miss
W18	DET @ GB	GB -4	GB -5.5	62%	-4 (GB 16 - DET 20)	GB · miss	DET +5.5 · HIT
W18	HOU @ IND	pick'em	IND -3	51%	-1 (IND 31 - HOU 32)	IND · miss	HOU +3 · HIT
W18	LAC @ DEN	LAC -3.5	DEN -6	40%	+3 (DEN 31 - LAC 28)	LAC · miss	LAC +6 · HIT
W18	LA @ SEA	SEA -5.5	SEA -5.5	66%	+3 (SEA 19 - LA 16)	SEA · HIT	LA +5.5 · HIT
W18	MIN @ CHI	MIN -3.5	MIN -6.5	39%	-16 (CHI 13 - MIN 29)	MIN · HIT	CHI +6.5 · miss
W18	NE @ BUF	BUF -7.5	BUF -8	72%	+12 (BUF 35 - NE 23)	BUF · HIT	NE +8 · miss
W18	NYG @ PHI	PHI -9.5	PHI -16.5	77%	+6 (PHI 22 - NYG 16)	PHI · HIT	NYG +16.5 · HIT
W18	NYJ @ MIA	MIA -4	MIA -3.5	63%	+5 (MIA 11 - NYJ 6)	MIA · HIT	MIA -3.5 · HIT
W18	TB @ ATL	pick'em	ATL -6	50%	+13 (ATL 30 - TB 17)	ATL · HIT	TB +6 · miss

2023 season — every game (272)

Wk	Game	Bayesian Model line	Vegas line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home score first)	Bayesian Model winner pick	Bayesian Model spread pick
W1	DET @ KC	KC -5.5	KC -4	67%	-1 (KC 20 - DET 21)	KC · miss	KC -4 · miss
W1	ARI @ WAS	WAS -3.5	WAS -7	60%	+4 (WAS 20 - ARI 16)	WAS · HIT	ARI +7 · HIT
W1	CAR @ ATL	ATL -1.5	ATL -3.5	55%	+14 (ATL 24 - CAR 10)	ATL · HIT	CAR +3.5 · miss
W1	CIN @ CLE	CIN -3.5	CIN -1	40%	+21 (CLE 24 - CIN 3)	CIN · miss	CIN -1 · miss
W1	DAL @ NYG	DAL -1.5	DAL -3.5	45%	-40 (NYG 0 - DAL 40)	DAL · HIT	NYG +3.5 · miss
W1	GB @ CHI	GB -2	CHI -1	44%	-18 (CHI 20 - GB 38)	GB · HIT	GB +1 · HIT
W1	HOU @ BAL	BAL -10.5	BAL -9.5	79%	+16 (BAL 25 - HOU 9)	BAL · HIT	BAL -9.5 · HIT
W1	JAX @ IND	JAX -6	JAX -4	32%	-10 (IND 21 - JAX 31)	JAX · HIT	JAX -4 · HIT
W1	LA @ SEA	SEA -4	SEA -4.5	62%	-17 (SEA 13 - LA 30)	SEA · miss	LA +4.5 · HIT
W1	LV @ DEN	DEN -3	DEN -3	59%	-1 (DEN 16 - LV 17)	DEN · miss	DEN -3 · miss
W1	MIA @ LAC	LAC -2	LAC -3	55%	-2 (LAC 34 - MIA 36)	LAC · miss	MIA +3 · HIT
W1	PHI @ NE	PHI -1.5	PHI -3.5	45%	-5 (NE 20 - PHI 25)	PHI · HIT	NE +3.5 · miss
W1	SF @ PIT	SF -2	SF -1.5	43%	-23 (PIT 7 - SF 30)	SF · HIT	SF -1.5 · HIT
W1	TB @ MIN	MIN -3.5	MIN -4	61%	-3 (MIN 17 - TB 20)	MIN · miss	TB +4 · HIT
W1	TEN @ NO	pick'em	NO -3	50%	+1 (NO 16 - TEN 15)	TEN · miss	TEN +3 · HIT
W1	BUF @ NYJ	BUF -9.5	BUF -2.5	23%	+6 (NYJ 22 - BUF 16)	BUF · miss	BUF -2.5 · miss
W2	MIN @ PHI	PHI -6	PHI -6	68%	+6 (PHI 34 - MIN 28)	PHI · HIT	PHI -6 · push
W2	BAL @ CIN	CIN -2.5	CIN -3.5	57%	-3 (CIN 24 - BAL 27)	CIN · miss	BAL +3.5 · HIT
W2	CHI @ TB	TB -3.5	TB -2.5	61%	+10 (TB 27 - CHI 17)	TB · HIT	TB -2.5 · HIT
W2	GB @ ATL	GB -1.5	ATL -3	46%	+1 (ATL 25 - GB 24)	GB · miss	GB +3 · HIT
W2	IND @ HOU	pick'em	IND -1	51%	-11 (HOU 20 - IND 31)	HOU · miss	HOU +1 · miss
W2	KC @ JAX	KC -3	KC -3.5	41%	-8 (JAX 9 - KC 17)	KC · HIT	JAX +3.5 · miss
W2	LAC @ TEN	LAC -1.5	LAC -2.5	45%	+3 (TEN 27 - LAC 24)	LAC · miss	TEN +2.5 · HIT
W2	LV @ BUF	BUF -9.5	BUF -7.5	77%	+28 (BUF 38 - LV 10)	BUF · HIT	BUF -7.5 · HIT
W2	MIA @ NE	NE -1.5	MIA -2	54%	-7 (NE 17 - MIA 24)	NE · miss	NE +2 · miss
W2	NYG @ ARI	NYG -2	NYG -5	44%	-3 (ARI 28 - NYG 31)	NYG · HIT	ARI +5 · HIT
W2	NYJ @ DAL	DAL -9.5	DAL -8.5	77%	+20 (DAL 30 - NYJ 10)	DAL · HIT	DAL -8.5 · HIT
W2	SEA @ DET	DET -3	DET -4.5	59%	-6 (DET 31 - SEA 37)	DET · miss	SEA +4.5 · HIT
W2	SF @ LA	SF -6	SF -7.5	33%	-7 (LA 23 - SF 30)	SF · HIT	LA +7.5 · HIT
W2	WAS @ DEN	DEN -2	DEN -4	56%	-2 (DEN 33 - WAS 35)	DEN · miss	WAS +4 · HIT
W2	CLE @ PIT	PIT -1.5	CLE -2.5	55%	+4 (PIT 26 - CLE 22)	PIT · HIT	PIT +2.5 · HIT
W2	NO @ CAR	CAR -0.5	NO -3	51%	-3 (CAR 17 - NO 20)	CAR · miss	CAR +3 · push
W3	NYG @ SF	SF -10	SF -10.5	78%	+18 (SF 30 - NYG 12)	SF · HIT	NYG +10.5 · miss
W3	ATL @ DET	DET -3	DET -3	60%	+14 (DET 20 - ATL 6)	DET · HIT	DET -3 · HIT
W3	BUF @ WAS	BUF -7	BUF -5.5	29%	-34 (WAS 3 - BUF 37)	BUF · HIT	BUF -5.5 · HIT
W3	CAR @ SEA	SEA -6	SEA -5	68%	+10 (SEA 37 - CAR 27)	SEA · HIT	SEA -5 · HIT
W3	CHI @ KC	KC -12	KC -13	82%	+31 (KC 41 - CHI 10)	KC · HIT	CHI +13 · miss
W3	DAL @ ARI	DAL -9.5	DAL -11.5	23%	+12 (ARI 28 - DAL 16)	DAL · miss	ARI +11.5 · HIT
W3	DEN @ MIA	MIA -5	MIA -6	65%	+50 (MIA 70 - DEN 20)	MIA · HIT	DEN +6 · miss
W3	HOU @ JAX	JAX -10	JAX -7.5	78%	-20 (JAX 17 - HOU 37)	JAX · miss	JAX -7.5 · miss
W3	IND @ BAL	BAL -9	BAL -7.5	76%	-3 (BAL 19 - IND 22)	BAL · miss	BAL -7.5 · miss
W3	LAC @ MIN	LAC -2	MIN -1	44%	-4 (MIN 24 - LAC 28)	LAC · HIT	LAC +1 · HIT
W3	NE @ NYJ	NE -2	NE -2.5	44%	-5 (NYJ 10 - NE 15)	NE · HIT	NYJ +2.5 · miss
W3	NO @ GB	GB -4.5	NO -1.5	64%	+1 (GB 18 - NO 17)	GB · HIT	GB +1.5 · HIT
W3	PIT @ LV	PIT -3.5	LV -3	39%	-5 (LV 18 - PIT 23)	PIT · HIT	PIT +3 · HIT
W3	TEN @ CLE	CLE -3	CLE -3.5	59%	+24 (CLE 27 - TEN 3)	CLE · HIT	TEN +3.5 · miss
W3	LA @ CIN	CIN -4	CIN -3	62%	+3 (CIN 19 - LA 16)	CIN · HIT	CIN -3 · push
W3	PHI @ TB	PHI -4	PHI -6	38%	-14 (TB 11 - PHI 25)	PHI · HIT	TB +6 · miss
W4	DET @ GB	GB -1	DET -2.5	54%	-14 (GB 20 - DET 34)	GB · miss	GB +2.5 · miss
W4	ARI @ SF	SF -12	SF -15	82%	+19 (SF 35 - ARI 16)	SF · HIT	ARI +15 · miss
W4	ATL @ JAX	JAX -2.5	JAX -3.5	58%	+16 (JAX 23 - ATL 7)	JAX · HIT	ATL +3.5 · miss
W4	BAL @ CLE	pick'em	BAL -2	51%	-25 (CLE 3 - BAL 28)	CLE · miss	CLE +2 · miss
W4	CIN @ TEN	CIN -3.5	CIN -2.5	39%	+24 (TEN 27 - CIN 3)	CIN · miss	CIN -2.5 · miss
W4	DEN @ CHI	CHI -0.5	DEN -3	51%	-3 (CHI 28 - DEN 31)	CHI · miss	CHI +3 · push
W4	KC @ NYJ	KC -8.5	KC -9.5	25%	-3 (NYJ 20 - KC 23)	KC · HIT	NYJ +9.5 · HIT
W4	LA @ IND	LA -2.5	LA -1	42%	-6 (IND 23 - LA 29)	LA · HIT	LA -1 · HIT
W4	LV @ LAC	LAC -6	LAC -7	68%	+7 (LAC 24 - LV 17)	LAC · HIT	LV +7 · push
W4	MIA @ BUF	BUF -5.5	BUF -2.5	66%	+28 (BUF 48 - MIA 20)	BUF · HIT	BUF -2.5 · HIT
W4	MIN @ CAR	MIN -0.5	MIN -4.5	48%	-8 (CAR 13 - MIN 21)	MIN · HIT	CAR +4.5 · miss
W4	NE @ DAL	DAL -6	DAL -6.5	68%	+35 (DAL 38 - NE 3)	DAL · HIT	NE +6.5 · miss
W4	PIT @ HOU	PIT -4.5	PIT -3	36%	+24 (HOU 30 - PIT 6)	PIT · miss	PIT -3 · miss
W4	TB @ NO	NO -1.5	NO -4	54%	-17 (NO 9 - TB 26)	NO · miss	TB +4 · HIT
W4	WAS @ PHI	PHI -9.5	PHI -9.5	76%	+3 (PHI 34 - WAS 31)	PHI · HIT	WAS +9.5 · HIT
W4	SEA @ NYG	SEA -1	SEA -2.5	46%	-21 (NYG 3 - SEA 24)	SEA · HIT	NYG +2.5 · miss
W5	CHI @ WAS	WAS -5	WAS -6	65%	-20 (WAS 20 - CHI 40)	WAS · miss	CHI +6 · HIT
W5	BAL @ PIT	BAL -1.5	BAL -4.5	45%	+7 (PIT 17 - BAL 10)	BAL · miss	PIT +4.5 · HIT
W5	CAR @ DET	DET -8	DET -9.5	73%	+18 (DET 42 - CAR 24)	DET · HIT	CAR +9.5 · miss
W5	CIN @ ARI	CIN -3.5	CIN -3	39%	-14 (ARI 20 - CIN 34)	CIN · HIT	CIN -3 · HIT
W5	DAL @ SF	SF -3	SF -3.5	59%	+32 (SF 42 - DAL 10)	SF · HIT	DAL +3.5 · miss
W5	HOU @ ATL	ATL -3.5	ATL -2.5	61%	+2 (ATL 21 - HOU 19)	ATL · HIT	ATL -2.5 · miss
W5	JAX @ BUF	BUF -11	BUF -5.5	80%	-5 (BUF 20 - JAX 25)	BUF · miss	BUF -5.5 · miss
W5	KC @ MIN	KC -6.5	KC -3.5	31%	-7 (MIN 20 - KC 27)	KC · HIT	KC -3.5 · HIT
W5	NO @ NE	NE -3.5	NE -2.5	60%	-34 (NE 0 - NO 34)	NE · miss	NE -2.5 · miss
W5	NYG @ MIA	MIA -8.5	MIA -12.5	75%	+15 (MIA 31 - NYG 16)	MIA · HIT	NYG +12.5 · miss
W5	NYJ @ DEN	DEN -2	DEN -2.5	55%	-10 (DEN 21 - NYJ 31)	DEN · miss	NYJ +2.5 · HIT
W5	PHI @ LA	PHI -3	PHI -3.5	41%	-9 (LA 14 - PHI 23)	PHI · HIT	LA +3.5 · miss
W5	TEN @ IND	TEN -2	TEN -2.5	44%	+7 (IND 23 - TEN 16)	TEN · miss	IND +2.5 · HIT
W5	GB @ LV	GB -3.5	LV -1	39%	+4 (LV 17 - GB 13)	GB · miss	GB +1 · miss
W6	DEN @ KC	KC -12.5	KC -10.5	83%	+11 (KC 19 - DEN 8)	KC · HIT	KC -10.5 · HIT
W6	ARI @ LA	LA -4.5	LA -7	63%	+17 (LA 26 - ARI 9)	LA · HIT	ARI +7 · miss
W6	BAL @ TEN	BAL -1	BAL -5.5	48%	-8 (TEN 16 - BAL 24)	BAL · HIT	TEN +5.5 · miss
W6	CAR @ MIA	MIA -10	MIA -14	77%	+21 (MIA 42 - CAR 21)	MIA · HIT	CAR +14 · miss
W6	DET @ TB	DET -3	DET -3	41%	-14 (TB 6 - DET 20)	DET · HIT	TB +3 · miss
W6	IND @ JAX	JAX -6.5	JAX -4	69%	+17 (JAX 37 - IND 20)	JAX · HIT	JAX -4 · HIT
W6	MIN @ CHI	MIN -2	MIN -3	44%	-6 (CHI 13 - MIN 19)	MIN · HIT	CHI +3 · miss
W6	NE @ LV	LV -1	LV -3	52%	+4 (LV 21 - NE 17)	LV · HIT	NE +3 · miss
W6	NO @ HOU	NO -2	NO -2	44%	+7 (HOU 20 - NO 13)	NO · miss	HOU +2 · HIT
W6	NYG @ BUF	BUF -17	BUF -15.5	90%	+5 (BUF 14 - NYG 9)	BUF · HIT	BUF -15.5 · miss
W6	PHI @ NYJ	PHI -5	PHI -6.5	35%	+6 (NYJ 20 - PHI 14)	PHI · miss	NYJ +6.5 · HIT
W6	SEA @ CIN	CIN -1	CIN -3	54%	+4 (CIN 17 - SEA 13)	CIN · HIT	SEA +3 · miss
W6	SF @ CLE	SF -10	SF -9.5	23%	+2 (CLE 19 - SF 17)	SF · miss	SF -9.5 · miss
W6	WAS @ ATL	ATL -3	ATL -1.5	59%	-8 (ATL 16 - WAS 24)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
W6	DAL @ LAC	DAL -2.5	DAL -1.5	42%	-3 (LAC 17 - DAL 20)	DAL · HIT	DAL -1.5 · HIT
W7	JAX @ NO	JAX -1.5	NO -2.5	46%	-7 (NO 24 - JAX 31)	JAX · HIT	JAX +2.5 · HIT
W7	ARI @ SEA	SEA -7.5	SEA -9.5	71%	+10 (SEA 20 - ARI 10)	SEA · HIT	ARI +9.5 · miss
W7	ATL @ TB	TB -2.5	TB -3	57%	-3 (TB 13 - ATL 16)	TB · miss	ATL +3 · HIT
W7	BUF @ NE	BUF -9	BUF -7.5	24%	+4 (NE 29 - BUF 25)	BUF · miss	BUF -7.5 · miss
W7	CLE @ IND	CLE -2	CLE -3.5	44%	-1 (IND 38 - CLE 39)	CLE · HIT	IND +3.5 · HIT
W7	DET @ BAL	DET -0.5	BAL -3	48%	+32 (BAL 38 - DET 6)	DET · miss	DET +3 · miss
W7	GB @ DEN	GB -3	DEN -1.5	41%	+2 (DEN 19 - GB 17)	GB · miss	GB +1.5 · miss
W7	LAC @ KC	KC -6.5	KC -5.5	69%	+14 (KC 31 - LAC 17)	KC · HIT	KC -5.5 · HIT
W7	LV @ CHI	LV -1	LV -2.5	47%	+18 (CHI 30 - LV 12)	LV · miss	CHI +2.5 · HIT
W7	MIA @ PHI	PHI -1.5	PHI -3	55%	+14 (PHI 31 - MIA 17)	PHI · HIT	MIA +3 · miss
W7	PIT @ LA	LA -2	LA -3.5	55%	-7 (LA 17 - PIT 24)	LA · miss	PIT +3.5 · HIT
W7	WAS @ NYG	WAS -1	WAS -3	47%	+7 (NYG 14 - WAS 7)	WAS · miss	NYG +3 · HIT
W7	SF @ MIN	SF -8.5	SF -7	26%	+5 (MIN 22 - SF 17)	SF · miss	SF -7 · miss
W8	TB @ BUF	BUF -11	BUF -10	80%	+6 (BUF 24 - TB 18)	BUF · HIT	BUF -10 · miss
W8	ATL @ TEN	TEN -1	ATL -2.5	53%	+5 (TEN 28 - ATL 23)	TEN · HIT	TEN +2.5 · HIT
W8	BAL @ ARI	BAL -7	BAL -9.5	30%	-7 (ARI 24 - BAL 31)	BAL · HIT	ARI +9.5 · HIT
W8	CHI @ LAC	LAC -7	LAC -9.5	70%	+17 (LAC 30 - CHI 13)	LAC · HIT	CHI +9.5 · miss
W8	CIN @ SF	SF -8.5	SF -4	74%	-14 (SF 17 - CIN 31)	SF · miss	SF -4 · miss
W8	CLE @ SEA	SEA -5.5	SEA -4	66%	+4 (SEA 24 - CLE 20)	SEA · HIT	SEA -4 · push
W8	HOU @ CAR	pick'em	HOU -3	50%	+2 (CAR 15 - HOU 13)	HOU · miss	CAR +3 · HIT
W8	JAX @ PIT	PIT -0.5	JAX -2.5	52%	-10 (PIT 10 - JAX 20)	PIT · miss	PIT +2.5 · miss
W8	KC @ DEN	KC -8	KC -7	28%	+15 (DEN 24 - KC 9)	KC · miss	KC -7 · miss
W8	LA @ DAL	DAL -5.5	DAL -6.5	67%	+23 (DAL 43 - LA 20)	DAL · HIT	LA +6.5 · miss
W8	MIN @ GB	GB -2	MIN -1	56%	-14 (GB 10 - MIN 24)	GB · miss	GB +1 · miss
W8	NE @ MIA	MIA -7	MIA -7.5	71%	+14 (MIA 31 - NE 17)	MIA · HIT	NE +7.5 · miss
W8	NO @ IND	NO -2	NO -2	44%	-11 (IND 27 - NO 38)	NO · HIT	NO -2 · HIT
W8	NYJ @ NYG	NYJ -1.5	NYJ -3	46%	-3 (NYG 10 - NYJ 13)	NYJ · HIT	NYG +3 · push
W8	PHI @ WAS	PHI -6	PHI -7	32%	-7 (WAS 31 - PHI 38)	PHI · HIT	WAS +7 · push
W8	LV @ DET	DET -7.5	DET -7	72%	+12 (DET 26 - LV 14)	DET · HIT	DET -7 · HIT
W9	TEN @ PIT	PIT -4.5	PIT -3.5	64%	+4 (PIT 20 - TEN 16)	PIT · HIT	PIT -3.5 · HIT
W9	ARI @ CLE	CLE -7.5	CLE -13	72%	+27 (CLE 27 - ARI 0)	CLE · HIT	ARI +13 · miss
W9	BUF @ CIN	BUF -2.5	CIN -1.5	42%	+6 (CIN 24 - BUF 18)	BUF · miss	BUF +1.5 · miss
W9	CHI @ NO	NO -6.5	NO -9	69%	+7 (NO 24 - CHI 17)	NO · HIT	CHI +9 · HIT
W9	DAL @ PHI	pick'em	PHI -3.5	51%	+5 (PHI 28 - DAL 23)	PHI · HIT	DAL +3.5 · miss
W9	IND @ CAR	CAR -1.5	IND -1.5	55%	-14 (CAR 13 - IND 27)	CAR · miss	CAR +1.5 · miss
W9	LA @ GB	GB -3.5	GB -3.5	61%	+17 (GB 20 - LA 3)	GB · HIT	GB -3.5 · HIT
W9	MIA @ KC	KC -4	KC -1	61%	+7 (KC 21 - MIA 14)	KC · HIT	KC -1 · HIT
W9	MIN @ ATL	pick'em	ATL -3.5	50%	-3 (ATL 28 - MIN 31)	ATL · miss	MIN +3.5 · HIT
W9	NYG @ LV	pick'em	LV -1	49%	+24 (LV 30 - NYG 6)	NYG · miss	NYG +1 · miss
W9	SEA @ BAL	BAL -4	BAL -6	61%	+34 (BAL 37 - SEA 3)	BAL · HIT	SEA +6 · miss
W9	TB @ HOU	pick'em	HOU -2.5	49%	+2 (HOU 39 - TB 37)	TB · miss	TB +2.5 · HIT
W9	WAS @ NE	NE -3.5	NE -2.5	60%	-3 (NE 17 - WAS 20)	NE · miss	NE -2.5 · miss
W9	LAC @ NYJ	LAC -1.5	LAC -3	46%	-21 (NYJ 6 - LAC 27)	LAC · HIT	NYJ +3 · miss
W10	CAR @ CHI	CHI -2.5	CHI -3	57%	+3 (CHI 16 - CAR 13)	CHI · HIT	CAR +3 · push
W10	ATL @ ARI	ATL -1.5	ATL -2	45%	+2 (ARI 25 - ATL 23)	ATL · miss	ARI +2 · HIT
W10	CLE @ BAL	BAL -6	BAL -6	68%	-2 (BAL 31 - CLE 33)	BAL · miss	BAL -6 · miss
W10	DET @ LAC	pick'em	DET -2.5	51%	-3 (LAC 38 - DET 41)	LAC · miss	LAC +2.5 · miss
W10	GB @ PIT	PIT -2.5	PIT -3	57%	+4 (PIT 23 - GB 19)	PIT · HIT	GB +3 · miss
W10	HOU @ CIN	CIN -7	CIN -5.5	71%	-3 (CIN 27 - HOU 30)	CIN · miss	CIN -5.5 · miss
W10	IND @ NE	NE -3.5	IND -1	60%	-4 (NE 6 - IND 10)	NE · miss	NE +1 · miss
W10	NO @ MIN	NO -0.5	NO -3	49%	+8 (MIN 27 - NO 19)	NO · miss	MIN +3 · HIT
W10	NYG @ DAL	DAL -13	DAL -17.5	84%	+32 (DAL 49 - NYG 17)	DAL · HIT	NYG +17.5 · miss
W10	NYJ @ LV	LV -1	NYJ -1	53%	+4 (LV 16 - NYJ 12)	LV · HIT	LV +1 · HIT
W10	SF @ JAX	SF -2.5	SF -3	43%	-31 (JAX 3 - SF 34)	SF · HIT	JAX +3 · miss
W10	TEN @ TB	TB -3	TB -2.5	59%	+14 (TB 20 - TEN 6)	TB · HIT	TB -2.5 · HIT
W10	WAS @ SEA	SEA -5.5	SEA -6	66%	+3 (SEA 29 - WAS 26)	SEA · HIT	WAS +6 · HIT
W10	DEN @ BUF	BUF -10	BUF -7.5	78%	-2 (BUF 22 - DEN 24)	BUF · miss	BUF -7.5 · miss
W11	CIN @ BAL	BAL -4	BAL -4	63%	+14 (BAL 34 - CIN 20)	BAL · HIT	BAL -4 · HIT
W11	ARI @ HOU	HOU -6	HOU -5.5	68%	+5 (HOU 21 - ARI 16)	HOU · HIT	HOU -5.5 · miss
W11	CHI @ DET	DET -7.5	DET -8	72%	+5 (DET 31 - CHI 26)	DET · HIT	CHI +8 · HIT
W11	DAL @ CAR	DAL -9	DAL -11	25%	-23 (CAR 10 - DAL 33)	DAL · HIT	CAR +11 · miss
W11	LAC @ GB	GB -0.5	LAC -3	51%	+3 (GB 23 - LAC 20)	GB · HIT	GB +3 · HIT
W11	LV @ MIA	MIA -9	MIA -14	76%	+7 (MIA 20 - LV 13)	MIA · HIT	LV +14 · HIT
W11	MIN @ DEN	DEN -1	DEN -2.5	53%	+1 (DEN 21 - MIN 20)	DEN · HIT	MIN +2.5 · HIT
W11	NYG @ WAS	WAS -7	WAS -7.5	71%	-12 (WAS 19 - NYG 31)	WAS · miss	NYG +7.5 · HIT
W11	NYJ @ BUF	BUF -11	BUF -8	80%	+26 (BUF 32 - NYJ 6)	BUF · HIT	BUF -8 · HIT
W11	PIT @ CLE	CLE -1	CLE -2.5	53%	+3 (CLE 13 - PIT 10)	CLE · HIT	PIT +2.5 · miss
W11	SEA @ LA	SEA -0.5	LA -2.5	49%	+1 (LA 17 - SEA 16)	SEA · miss	SEA +2.5 · HIT
W11	TB @ SF	SF -10.5	SF -13.5	79%	+13 (SF 27 - TB 14)	SF · HIT	TB +13.5 · HIT
W11	TEN @ JAX	JAX -5	JAX -6.5	65%	+20 (JAX 34 - TEN 14)	JAX · HIT	TEN +6.5 · miss
W11	PHI @ KC	KC -2.5	KC -2.5	58%	-4 (KC 17 - PHI 21)	KC · miss	KC -2.5 · miss
W12	GB @ DET	DET -4	DET -8.5	61%	-7 (DET 22 - GB 29)	DET · miss	GB +8.5 · HIT
W12	SF @ SEA	SF -6.5	SF -7	31%	-18 (SEA 13 - SF 31)	SF · HIT	SEA +7 · miss
W12	WAS @ DAL	DAL -11.5	DAL -13	81%	+35 (DAL 45 - WAS 10)	DAL · HIT	WAS +13 · miss
W12	MIA @ NYJ	MIA -7	MIA -9.5	29%	-21 (NYJ 13 - MIA 34)	MIA · HIT	NYJ +9.5 · miss
W12	BAL @ LAC	BAL -2	BAL -3	44%	-10 (LAC 10 - BAL 20)	BAL · HIT	LAC +3 · miss
W12	BUF @ PHI	PHI -0.5	PHI -2.5	51%	+3 (PHI 37 - BUF 34)	PHI · HIT	BUF +2.5 · miss
W12	CAR @ TEN	TEN -4.5	TEN -3.5	63%	+7 (TEN 17 - CAR 10)	TEN · HIT	TEN -3.5 · HIT
W12	CLE @ DEN	pick'em	DEN -1.5	50%	+17 (DEN 29 - CLE 12)	DEN · HIT	CLE +1.5 · miss
W12	JAX @ HOU	JAX -2	JAX -1	44%	-3 (HOU 21 - JAX 24)	JAX · HIT	JAX -1 · HIT
W12	KC @ LV	KC -7	KC -9	29%	-14 (LV 17 - KC 31)	KC · HIT	LV +9 · miss
W12	LA @ ARI	LA -3.5	LA -3	40%	-23 (ARI 14 - LA 37)	LA · HIT	LA -3 · HIT
W12	NE @ NYG	NE -3	NE -4.5	41%	+3 (NYG 10 - NE 7)	NE · miss	NYG +4.5 · HIT
W12	NO @ ATL	NO -1.5	NO -2	46%	+9 (ATL 24 - NO 15)	NO · miss	ATL +2 · HIT
W12	PIT @ CIN	CIN -1	PIT -2	52%	-6 (CIN 10 - PIT 16)	CIN · miss	CIN +2 · miss
W12	TB @ IND	TB -0.5	IND -2.5	49%	+7 (IND 27 - TB 20)	TB · miss	TB +2.5 · miss
W12	CHI @ MIN	MIN -4	MIN -3	62%	-2 (MIN 10 - CHI 12)	MIN · miss	MIN -3 · miss
W13	SEA @ DAL	DAL -10.5	DAL -9.5	80%	+6 (DAL 41 - SEA 35)	DAL · HIT	DAL -9.5 · miss
W13	ARI @ PIT	PIT -10	PIT -6	78%	-14 (PIT 10 - ARI 24)	PIT · miss	PIT -6 · miss
W13	ATL @ NYJ	ATL -3.5	ATL -2	39%	-5 (NYJ 8 - ATL 13)	ATL · HIT	ATL -2 · HIT
W13	CAR @ TB	TB -6.5	TB -4	69%	+3 (TB 21 - CAR 18)	TB · HIT	TB -4 · miss
W13	CLE @ LA	LA -3	LA -3.5	60%	+17 (LA 36 - CLE 19)	LA · HIT	CLE +3.5 · miss
W13	DEN @ HOU	HOU -1	HOU -3.5	53%	+5 (HOU 22 - DEN 17)	HOU · HIT	DEN +3.5 · miss
W13	DET @ NO	DET -2	DET -4	44%	-5 (NO 28 - DET 33)	DET · HIT	NO +4 · miss
W13	IND @ TEN	TEN -1	IND -1.5	53%	-3 (TEN 28 - IND 31)	TEN · miss	TEN +1.5 · miss
W13	KC @ GB	KC -1.5	KC -5.5	46%	+8 (GB 27 - KC 19)	KC · miss	GB +5.5 · HIT
W13	LAC @ NE	LAC -4	LAC -4.5	37%	-6 (NE 0 - LAC 6)	LAC · HIT	NE +4.5 · miss
W13	MIA @ WAS	MIA -5.5	MIA -8.5	33%	-30 (WAS 15 - MIA 45)	MIA · HIT	WAS +8.5 · miss
W13	SF @ PHI	SF -2.5	SF -3	42%	-23 (PHI 19 - SF 42)	SF · HIT	PHI +3 · miss
W13	CIN @ JAX	JAX -5.5	JAX -10	66%	-3 (JAX 31 - CIN 34)	JAX · miss	CIN +10 · HIT
W14	NE @ PIT	PIT -4.5	PIT -6	64%	-3 (PIT 18 - NE 21)	PIT · miss	NE +6 · HIT
W14	BUF @ KC	pick'em	KC -2	50%	-3 (KC 17 - BUF 20)	BUF · HIT	BUF +2 · HIT
W14	CAR @ NO	NO -6	NO -5.5	68%	+22 (NO 28 - CAR 6)	NO · HIT	NO -5.5 · HIT
W14	DEN @ LAC	LAC -3.5	LAC -3	61%	-17 (LAC 7 - DEN 24)	LAC · miss	LAC -3 · miss
W14	DET @ CHI	DET -4	DET -3	38%	+15 (CHI 28 - DET 13)	DET · miss	DET -3 · miss
W14	HOU @ NYJ	HOU -2.5	HOU -3.5	43%	+24 (NYJ 30 - HOU 6)	HOU · miss	NYJ +3.5 · HIT
W14	IND @ CIN	CIN -3	CIN -3	59%	+20 (CIN 34 - IND 14)	CIN · HIT	IND +3 · miss
W14	JAX @ CLE	JAX -1.5	CLE -2.5	46%	+4 (CLE 31 - JAX 27)	JAX · miss	JAX +2.5 · miss
W14	LA @ BAL	BAL -7	BAL -7.5	70%	+6 (BAL 37 - LA 31)	BAL · HIT	LA +7.5 · HIT
W14	MIN @ LV	MIN -1	MIN -3	47%	-3 (LV 0 - MIN 3)	MIN · HIT	LV +3 · push
W14	PHI @ DAL	DAL -6.5	DAL -3.5	69%	+20 (DAL 33 - PHI 13)	DAL · HIT	DAL -3.5 · HIT
W14	SEA @ SF	SF -14.5	SF -14.5	87%	+12 (SF 28 - SEA 16)	SF · HIT	SF -14.5 · miss
W14	TB @ ATL	ATL -1	ATL -1.5	53%	-4 (ATL 25 - TB 29)	ATL · miss	TB +1.5 · HIT
W14	GB @ NYG	GB -6.5	GB -6	31%	+2 (NYG 24 - GB 22)	GB · miss	GB -6 · miss
W14	TEN @ MIA	MIA -10	MIA -14	78%	-1 (MIA 27 - TEN 28)	MIA · miss	TEN +14 · HIT
W15	LAC @ LV	LAC -0.5	LV -3	49%	+42 (LV 63 - LAC 21)	LAC · miss	LAC +3 · miss
W15	DEN @ DET	DET -4	DET -5.5	62%	+25 (DET 42 - DEN 17)	DET · HIT	DEN +5.5 · miss
W15	MIN @ CIN	CIN -4	CIN -3	62%	+3 (CIN 27 - MIN 24)	CIN · HIT	CIN -3 · push
W15	PIT @ IND	IND -1.5	IND -1.5	54%	+17 (IND 30 - PIT 13)	IND · HIT	PIT +1.5 · miss
W15	ATL @ CAR	ATL -3	ATL -3	40%	+2 (CAR 9 - ATL 7)	ATL · miss	ATL -3 · miss
W15	BAL @ JAX	BAL -2.5	BAL -4	43%	-16 (JAX 7 - BAL 23)	BAL · HIT	JAX +4 · miss
W15	CHI @ CLE	CLE -2.5	CLE -3	57%	+3 (CLE 20 - CHI 17)	CLE · HIT	CHI +3 · push
W15	DAL @ BUF	DAL -0.5	BUF -2	49%	+21 (BUF 31 - DAL 10)	DAL · miss	DAL +2 · miss
W15	HOU @ TEN	TEN -3.5	TEN -3	61%	-3 (TEN 16 - HOU 19)	TEN · miss	TEN -3 · miss
W15	KC @ NE	KC -6	KC -10	32%	-10 (NE 17 - KC 27)	KC · HIT	NE +10 · push
W15	NYG @ NO	NO -8	NO -6	74%	+18 (NO 24 - NYG 6)	NO · HIT	NO -6 · HIT
W15	NYJ @ MIA	MIA -11	MIA -7.5	80%	+30 (MIA 30 - NYJ 0)	MIA · HIT	MIA -7.5 · HIT
W15	SF @ ARI	SF -12.5	SF -12.5	16%	-16 (ARI 29 - SF 45)	SF · HIT	SF -12.5 · HIT
W15	TB @ GB	GB -4	GB -4	62%	-14 (GB 20 - TB 34)	GB · miss	GB -4 · miss
W15	WAS @ LA	LA -7	LA -6.5	70%	+8 (LA 28 - WAS 20)	LA · HIT	LA -6.5 · HIT
W15	PHI @ SEA	PHI -3	PHI -5	41%	+3 (SEA 20 - PHI 17)	PHI · miss	SEA +5 · HIT
W16	NO @ LA	LA -2.5	LA -4	57%	+8 (LA 30 - NO 22)	LA · HIT	NO +4 · miss
W16	BUF @ LAC	BUF -10	BUF -13	22%	-2 (LAC 22 - BUF 24)	BUF · HIT	LAC +13 · HIT
W16	CIN @ PIT	CIN -2.5	CIN -3	43%	+23 (PIT 34 - CIN 11)	CIN · miss	PIT +3 · HIT
W16	ARI @ CHI	CHI -5	CHI -4.5	65%	+11 (CHI 27 - ARI 16)	CHI · HIT	CHI -4.5 · HIT
W16	CLE @ HOU	pick'em	CLE -3	50%	-14 (HOU 22 - CLE 36)	HOU · miss	HOU +3 · miss
W16	DAL @ MIA	MIA -0.5	MIA -1.5	52%	+2 (MIA 22 - DAL 20)	MIA · HIT	DAL +1.5 · miss
W16	DET @ MIN	DET -4	DET -2.5	38%	-6 (MIN 24 - DET 30)	DET · HIT	DET -2.5 · HIT
W16	GB @ CAR	GB -4	GB -3.5	38%	-3 (CAR 30 - GB 33)	GB · HIT	GB -3.5 · miss
W16	IND @ ATL	pick'em	ATL -3	49%	+19 (ATL 29 - IND 10)	IND · miss	IND +3 · miss
W16	JAX @ TB	TB -3	JAX -2	60%	+18 (TB 30 - JAX 12)	TB · HIT	TB +2 · HIT
W16	NE @ DEN	DEN -6	DEN -7	68%	-3 (DEN 23 - NE 26)	DEN · miss	NE +7 · HIT
W16	SEA @ TEN	pick'em	SEA -3	50%	-3 (TEN 17 - SEA 20)	TEN · miss	TEN +3 · push
W16	WAS @ NYJ	WAS -0.5	NYJ -3	49%	+2 (NYJ 30 - WAS 28)	WAS · miss	WAS +3 · HIT
W16	BAL @ SF	SF -6.5	SF -6.5	69%	-14 (SF 19 - BAL 33)	SF · miss	SF -6.5 · miss
W16	LV @ KC	KC -7.5	KC -11	72%	-6 (KC 14 - LV 20)	KC · miss	LV +11 · HIT
W16	NYG @ PHI	PHI -11	PHI -14	80%	+8 (PHI 33 - NYG 25)	PHI · HIT	NYG +14 · HIT
W17	NYJ @ CLE	CLE -8.5	CLE -6.5	74%	+17 (CLE 37 - NYJ 20)	CLE · HIT	CLE -6.5 · HIT
W17	DET @ DAL	DAL -5	DAL -5.5	65%	+1 (DAL 20 - DET 19)	DAL · HIT	DET +5.5 · HIT
W17	ARI @ PHI	PHI -10	PHI -12	77%	-4 (PHI 31 - ARI 35)	PHI · miss	ARI +12 · HIT
W17	ATL @ CHI	CHI -3	CHI -3	59%	+20 (CHI 37 - ATL 17)	CHI · HIT	ATL +3 · miss
W17	CAR @ JAX	JAX -3.5	JAX -3.5	60%	+26 (JAX 26 - CAR 0)	JAX · HIT	CAR +3.5 · miss
W17	CIN @ KC	KC -6	KC -7.5	67%	+8 (KC 25 - CIN 17)	KC · HIT	CIN +7.5 · miss
W17	GB @ MIN	GB -2	MIN -1	44%	-23 (MIN 10 - GB 33)	GB · HIT	GB +1 · HIT
W17	LAC @ DEN	DEN -3	DEN -3.5	59%	+7 (DEN 16 - LAC 9)	DEN · HIT	LAC +3.5 · miss
W17	LA @ NYG	LA -7.5	LA -6	28%	-1 (NYG 25 - LA 26)	LA · HIT	LA -6 · miss
W17	LV @ IND	IND -0.5	IND -3.5	52%	+3 (IND 23 - LV 20)	IND · HIT	LV +3.5 · HIT
W17	MIA @ BAL	BAL -3.5	BAL -3	60%	+37 (BAL 56 - MIA 19)	BAL · HIT	BAL -3 · HIT
W17	NE @ BUF	BUF -13	BUF -15	84%	+6 (BUF 27 - NE 21)	BUF · HIT	NE +15 · HIT
W17	NO @ TB	TB -2.5	TB -2.5	58%	-10 (TB 13 - NO 23)	TB · miss	TB -2.5 · miss
W17	PIT @ SEA	SEA -4	SEA -4.5	62%	-7 (SEA 23 - PIT 30)	SEA · miss	PIT +4.5 · HIT
W17	SF @ WAS	SF -11	SF -14	20%	-17 (WAS 10 - SF 27)	SF · HIT	WAS +14 · miss
W17	TEN @ HOU	HOU -2	HOU -5	56%	+23 (HOU 26 - TEN 3)	HOU · HIT	TEN +5 · miss
W18	HOU @ IND	IND -1.5	HOU -1.5	55%	-4 (IND 19 - HOU 23)	IND · miss	IND +1.5 · miss
W18	PIT @ BAL	BAL -10	PIT -3	77%	-7 (BAL 10 - PIT 17)	BAL · miss	BAL +3 · miss
W18	ATL @ NO	NO -4.5	NO -3.5	64%	+31 (NO 48 - ATL 17)	NO · HIT	NO -3.5 · HIT
W18	BUF @ MIA	BUF -1	BUF -2.5	47%	-7 (MIA 14 - BUF 21)	BUF · HIT	MIA +2.5 · miss
W18	CHI @ GB	GB -5	GB -2.5	65%	+8 (GB 17 - CHI 9)	GB · HIT	GB -2.5 · HIT
W18	CLE @ CIN	CIN -1.5	CIN -7.5	54%	+17 (CIN 31 - CLE 14)	CIN · HIT	CLE +7.5 · miss
W18	DAL @ WAS	DAL -8.5	DAL -13	25%	-28 (WAS 10 - DAL 38)	DAL · HIT	WAS +13 · miss
W18	DEN @ LV	LV -4.5	LV -3.5	64%	+13 (LV 27 - DEN 14)	LV · HIT	LV -3.5 · HIT
W18	JAX @ TEN	JAX -2	JAX -3.5	44%	+8 (TEN 28 - JAX 20)	JAX · miss	TEN +3.5 · HIT
W18	KC @ LAC	KC -3.5	LAC -3.5	39%	-1 (LAC 12 - KC 13)	KC · HIT	KC +3.5 · HIT
W18	LA @ SF	SF -8.5	SF -5.5	74%	-1 (SF 20 - LA 21)	SF · miss	SF -5.5 · miss
W18	MIN @ DET	DET -9.5	DET -3.5	77%	+10 (DET 30 - MIN 20)	DET · HIT	DET -3.5 · HIT
W18	NYJ @ NE	NE -4.5	NE -2.5	63%	-14 (NE 3 - NYJ 17)	NE · miss	NE -2.5 · miss
W18	PHI @ NYG	PHI -6.5	PHI -4.5	31%	+17 (NYG 27 - PHI 10)	PHI · miss	PHI -4.5 · miss
W18	SEA @ ARI	SEA -1	SEA -2.5	46%	-1 (ARI 20 - SEA 21)	SEA · HIT	ARI +2.5 · HIT
W18	TB @ CAR	TB -4	TB -5	38%	-9 (CAR 0 - TB 9)	TB · HIT	CAR +5 · miss

2024 season — every game (272)

Wk	Game	Bayesian Model line	Vegas line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home score first)	Bayesian Model winner pick	Bayesian Model spread pick
W1	BAL @ KC	BAL -2	KC -3	44%	+7 (KC 27 - BAL 20)	BAL · miss	BAL +3 · miss
W1	GB @ PHI	GB -0.5	PHI -2	49%	+5 (PHI 34 - GB 29)	GB · miss	GB +2 · miss
W1	ARI @ BUF	BUF -10	BUF -6.5	78%	+6 (BUF 34 - ARI 28)	BUF · HIT	BUF -6.5 · miss
W1	CAR @ NO	NO -8.5	NO -3.5	75%	+37 (NO 47 - CAR 10)	NO · HIT	NO -3.5 · HIT
W1	DAL @ CLE	DAL -5.5	CLE -2.5	33%	-16 (CLE 17 - DAL 33)	DAL · HIT	DAL +2.5 · HIT
W1	DEN @ SEA	SEA -4.5	SEA -6.5	64%	+6 (SEA 26 - DEN 20)	SEA · HIT	DEN +6.5 · HIT
W1	HOU @ IND	HOU -0.5	HOU -3	48%	-2 (IND 27 - HOU 29)	HOU · HIT	IND +3 · HIT
W1	JAX @ MIA	MIA -5	MIA -3.5	65%	+3 (MIA 20 - JAX 17)	MIA · HIT	MIA -3.5 · miss
W1	LA @ DET	DET -2.5	DET -5	58%	+6 (DET 26 - LA 20)	DET · HIT	LA +5 · miss
W1	LV @ LAC	LV -0.5	LAC -3	48%	+12 (LAC 22 - LV 10)	LV · miss	LV +3 · miss
W1	MIN @ NYG	NYG -0.5	MIN -1	51%	-22 (NYG 6 - MIN 28)	NYG · miss	NYG +1 · miss
W1	NE @ CIN	CIN -6.5	CIN -8	70%	-6 (CIN 10 - NE 16)	CIN · miss	NE +8 · HIT
W1	PIT @ ATL	PIT -1.5	ATL -4	46%	-8 (ATL 10 - PIT 18)	PIT · HIT	PIT +4 · HIT
W1	TEN @ CHI	CHI -1.5	CHI -4	55%	+7 (CHI 24 - TEN 17)	CHI · HIT	TEN +4 · miss
W1	WAS @ TB	TB -10	TB -4	78%	+17 (TB 37 - WAS 20)	TB · HIT	TB -4 · HIT
W1	NYJ @ SF	SF -15	SF -3.5	88%	+13 (SF 32 - NYJ 19)	SF · HIT	SF -3.5 · HIT
W2	BUF @ MIA	BUF -1	MIA -2.5	47%	-21 (MIA 10 - BUF 31)	BUF · HIT	BUF +2.5 · HIT
W2	CHI @ HOU	HOU -3	HOU -6	60%	+6 (HOU 19 - CHI 13)	HOU · HIT	CHI +6 · push
W2	CIN @ KC	KC -5.5	KC -6.5	66%	+1 (KC 26 - CIN 25)	KC · HIT	CIN +6.5 · HIT
W2	CLE @ JAX	JAX -3	JAX -3	60%	-5 (JAX 13 - CLE 18)	JAX · miss	JAX -3 · miss
W2	IND @ GB	GB -5	IND -3	65%	+6 (GB 16 - IND 10)	GB · HIT	GB +3 · HIT
W2	LAC @ CAR	LAC -3.5	LAC -5	40%	-23 (CAR 3 - LAC 26)	LAC · HIT	CAR +5 · miss
W2	LA @ ARI	LA -3.5	LA -1	39%	+31 (ARI 41 - LA 10)	LA · miss	LA -1 · miss
W2	LV @ BAL	BAL -10	BAL -9	78%	-3 (BAL 23 - LV 26)	BAL · miss	BAL -9 · miss
W2	NO @ DAL	DAL -3.5	DAL -6.5	61%	-25 (DAL 19 - NO 44)	DAL · miss	NO +6.5 · HIT
W2	NYG @ WAS	NYG -0.5	WAS -1.5	49%	+3 (WAS 21 - NYG 18)	NYG · miss	NYG +1.5 · miss
W2	NYJ @ TEN	TEN -5.5	NYJ -3.5	66%	-7 (TEN 17 - NYJ 24)	TEN · miss	TEN +3.5 · miss
W2	PIT @ DEN	PIT -1.5	PIT -3	46%	-7 (DEN 6 - PIT 13)	PIT · HIT	DEN +3 · miss
W2	SEA @ NE	SEA -2.5	SEA -3.5	43%	-3 (NE 20 - SEA 23)	SEA · HIT	NE +3.5 · HIT
W2	SF @ MIN	SF -8	SF -4.5	27%	+6 (MIN 23 - SF 17)	SF · miss	SF -4.5 · miss
W2	TB @ DET	DET -4	DET -7.5	61%	-4 (DET 16 - TB 20)	DET · miss	TB +7.5 · HIT
W2	ATL @ PHI	PHI -7.5	PHI -5.5	71%	-1 (PHI 21 - ATL 22)	PHI · miss	PHI -5.5 · miss
W3	NE @ NYJ	NYJ -0.5	NYJ -6.5	51%	+21 (NYJ 24 - NE 3)	NYJ · HIT	NE +6.5 · miss
W3	BAL @ DAL	DAL -1.5	BAL -1.5	54%	-3 (DAL 25 - BAL 28)	DAL · miss	DAL +1.5 · miss
W3	CAR @ LV	LV -9.5	LV -5.5	77%	-14 (LV 22 - CAR 36)	LV · miss	LV -5.5 · miss
W3	CHI @ IND	IND -1	IND -1.5	54%	+5 (IND 21 - CHI 16)	IND · HIT	CHI +1.5 · miss
W3	DEN @ TB	TB -7	TB -6	71%	-19 (TB 7 - DEN 26)	TB · miss	TB -6 · miss
W3	DET @ ARI	DET -2.5	DET -3	42%	-7 (ARI 13 - DET 20)	DET · HIT	ARI +3 · miss
W3	GB @ TEN	GB -2	TEN -3	44%	-16 (TEN 14 - GB 30)	GB · HIT	GB +3 · HIT
W3	HOU @ MIN	MIN -1	HOU -2	53%	+27 (MIN 34 - HOU 7)	MIN · HIT	MIN +2 · HIT
W3	KC @ ATL	KC -4.5	KC -3	36%	-5 (ATL 17 - KC 22)	KC · HIT	KC -3 · HIT
W3	LAC @ PIT	PIT -2	PIT -3	56%	+10 (PIT 20 - LAC 10)	PIT · HIT	LAC +3 · miss
W3	MIA @ SEA	SEA -1	SEA -4	53%	+21 (SEA 24 - MIA 3)	SEA · HIT	MIA +4 · miss
W3	NYG @ CLE	CLE -5	CLE -6.5	66%	-6 (CLE 15 - NYG 21)	CLE · miss	NYG +6.5 · HIT
W3	PHI @ NO	NO -7.5	NO -2.5	72%	-3 (NO 12 - PHI 15)	NO · miss	NO -2.5 · miss
W3	SF @ LA	SF -5	SF -6	35%	+3 (LA 27 - SF 24)	SF · miss	LA +6 · HIT
W3	JAX @ BUF	BUF -8.5	BUF -4	75%	+37 (BUF 47 - JAX 10)	BUF · HIT	BUF -4 · HIT
W3	WAS @ CIN	CIN -7.5	CIN -7.5	72%	-5 (CIN 33 - WAS 38)	CIN · miss	CIN -7.5 · miss
W4	DAL @ NYG	DAL -7	DAL -5.5	30%	-5 (NYG 15 - DAL 20)	DAL · HIT	DAL -5.5 · miss
W4	BUF @ BAL	BUF -0.5	BAL -2.5	48%	+25 (BAL 35 - BUF 10)	BUF · miss	BUF +2.5 · miss
W4	CIN @ CAR	CIN -6	CIN -4.5	33%	-10 (CAR 24 - CIN 34)	CIN · HIT	CIN -4.5 · HIT
W4	CLE @ LV	LV -1	CLE -2.5	53%	+4 (LV 20 - CLE 16)	LV · HIT	LV +2.5 · HIT
W4	DEN @ NYJ	NYJ -1	NYJ -7.5	52%	-1 (NYJ 9 - DEN 10)	NYJ · miss	DEN +7.5 · HIT
W4	JAX @ HOU	HOU -2	HOU -5.5	56%	+4 (HOU 24 - JAX 20)	HOU · HIT	JAX +5.5 · HIT
W4	KC @ LAC	KC -2.5	KC -7.5	43%	-7 (LAC 10 - KC 17)	KC · HIT	LAC +7.5 · HIT
W4	LA @ CHI	LA -1	CHI -3	46%	+6 (CHI 24 - LA 18)	LA · miss	LA +3 · miss
W4	MIN @ GB	GB -4.5	GB -2.5	63%	-2 (GB 29 - MIN 31)	GB · miss	GB -2.5 · miss
W4	NE @ SF	SF -12	SF -10.5	82%	+17 (SF 30 - NE 13)	SF · HIT	SF -10.5 · HIT
W4	NO @ ATL	NO -7	ATL -2.5	30%	+2 (ATL 26 - NO 24)	NO · miss	NO +2.5 · HIT
W4	PHI @ TB	TB -0.5	PHI -1	52%	+17 (TB 33 - PHI 16)	TB · HIT	TB +1 · HIT
W4	PIT @ IND	PIT -1	PIT -2.5	47%	+3 (IND 27 - PIT 24)	PIT · miss	IND +2.5 · HIT
W4	WAS @ ARI	ARI -5.5	ARI -3.5	67%	-28 (ARI 14 - WAS 42)	ARI · miss	ARI -3.5 · miss
W4	SEA @ DET	DET -5	DET -3.5	65%	+13 (DET 42 - SEA 29)	DET · HIT	DET -3.5 · HIT
W4	TEN @ MIA	MIA -3	MIA -2.5	59%	-19 (MIA 12 - TEN 31)	MIA · miss	MIA -2.5 · miss
W5	TB @ ATL	TB -3	ATL -2.5	42%	+6 (ATL 36 - TB 30)	TB · miss	TB +2.5 · miss
W5	ARI @ SF	SF -11	SF -7	80%	-1 (SF 23 - ARI 24)	SF · miss	SF -7 · miss
W5	BAL @ CIN	BAL -4.5	BAL -2.5	37%	-3 (CIN 38 - BAL 41)	BAL · HIT	BAL -2.5 · HIT
W5	BUF @ HOU	BUF -6	HOU -1	33%	+3 (HOU 23 - BUF 20)	BUF · miss	BUF +1 · miss
W5	CAR @ CHI	CHI -7.5	CHI -4	72%	+26 (CHI 36 - CAR 10)	CHI · HIT	CHI -4 · HIT
W5	CLE @ WAS	WAS -1	WAS -3	53%	+21 (WAS 34 - CLE 13)	WAS · HIT	CLE +3 · miss
W5	DAL @ PIT	DAL -2.5	PIT -2.5	43%	-3 (PIT 17 - DAL 20)	DAL · HIT	DAL +2.5 · HIT
W5	GB @ LA	GB -0.5	GB -3	48%	-5 (LA 19 - GB 24)	GB · HIT	LA +3 · miss
W5	IND @ JAX	JAX -2	JAX -3.5	56%	+3 (JAX 37 - IND 34)	JAX · HIT	IND +3.5 · HIT
W5	LV @ DEN	DEN -2.5	DEN -3	58%	+16 (DEN 34 - LV 18)	DEN · HIT	LV +3 · miss
W5	MIA @ NE	MIA -0.5	MIA -2	49%	-5 (NE 10 - MIA 15)	MIA · HIT	NE +2 · miss
W5	NYG @ SEA	SEA -6	SEA -7	67%	-9 (SEA 20 - NYG 29)	SEA · miss	NYG +7 · HIT
W5	NYJ @ MIN	MIN -5.5	MIN -2.5	67%	+6 (MIN 23 - NYJ 17)	MIN · HIT	MIN -2.5 · HIT
W5	NO @ KC	pick'em	KC -5.5	49%	+13 (KC 26 - NO 13)	NO · miss	NO +5.5 · miss
W6	SF @ SEA	SF -4	SF -3.5	38%	-12 (SEA 24 - SF 36)	SF · HIT	SF -3.5 · HIT
W6	ARI @ GB	GB -6.5	GB -5.5	69%	+21 (GB 34 - ARI 13)	GB · HIT	GB -5.5 · HIT
W6	ATL @ CAR	ATL -3.5	ATL -6	39%	-18 (CAR 20 - ATL 38)	ATL · HIT	CAR +6 · miss
W6	CIN @ NYG	CIN -2	CIN -4.5	43%	-10 (NYG 7 - CIN 17)	CIN · HIT	NYG +4.5 · miss
W6	CLE @ PHI	PHI -6.5	PHI -8	70%	+4 (PHI 20 - CLE 16)	PHI · HIT	CLE +8 · HIT
W6	DET @ DAL	DAL -1	DET -3.5	52%	-38 (DAL 9 - DET 47)	DAL · miss	DAL +3.5 · miss
W6	HOU @ NE	HOU -2	HOU -6.5	44%	-20 (NE 21 - HOU 41)	HOU · HIT	NE +6.5 · miss
W6	IND @ TEN	TEN -2.5	TEN -2.5	58%	-3 (TEN 17 - IND 20)	TEN · miss	TEN -2.5 · miss
W6	JAX @ CHI	CHI -3	JAX -1.5	59%	+19 (CHI 35 - JAX 16)	CHI · HIT	CHI +1.5 · HIT
W6	LAC @ DEN	DEN -1.5	LAC -3	55%	-7 (DEN 16 - LAC 23)	DEN · miss	DEN +3 · miss
W6	PIT @ LV	PIT -1	PIT -3.5	46%	-19 (LV 13 - PIT 32)	PIT · HIT	LV +3.5 · miss
W6	TB @ NO	NO -2	TB -3.5	57%	-24 (NO 27 - TB 51)	NO · miss	NO +3.5 · miss
W6	WAS @ BAL	BAL -9.5	BAL -6.5	77%	+7 (BAL 30 - WAS 23)	BAL · HIT	BAL -6.5 · HIT
W6	BUF @ NYJ	BUF -7.5	BUF -1	29%	-3 (NYJ 20 - BUF 23)	BUF · HIT	BUF -1 · HIT
W7	DEN @ NO	NO -4	DEN -2.5	61%	-23 (NO 10 - DEN 33)	NO · miss	NO +2.5 · miss
W7	CAR @ WAS	WAS -8.5	WAS -10	74%	+33 (WAS 40 - CAR 7)	WAS · HIT	CAR +10 · miss
W7	CIN @ CLE	CIN -2	CIN -5.5	44%	-7 (CLE 14 - CIN 21)	CIN · HIT	CLE +5.5 · miss
W7	DET @ MIN	DET -3	MIN -1	41%	-2 (MIN 29 - DET 31)	DET · HIT	DET +1 · HIT
W7	HOU @ GB	GB -6.5	GB -3	69%	+2 (GB 24 - HOU 22)	GB · HIT	GB -3 · miss
W7	KC @ SF	SF -4	SF -2.5	62%	-10 (SF 18 - KC 28)	SF · miss	SF -2.5 · miss
W7	LV @ LA	LA -7	LA -7	70%	+5 (LA 20 - LV 15)	LA · HIT	LV +7 · HIT
W7	MIA @ IND	IND -1.5	IND -3	54%	+6 (IND 16 - MIA 10)	IND · HIT	MIA +3 · miss
W7	NE @ JAX	JAX -6.5	JAX -6.5	69%	+16 (JAX 32 - NE 16)	JAX · HIT	JAX -6.5 · HIT
W7	NYJ @ PIT	PIT -6.5	NYJ -3	69%	+22 (PIT 37 - NYJ 15)	PIT · HIT	PIT +3 · HIT
W7	PHI @ NYG	PHI -3.5	PHI -3	40%	-25 (NYG 3 - PHI 28)	PHI · HIT	PHI -3 · HIT
W7	SEA @ ATL	ATL -0.5	ATL -3	52%	-20 (ATL 14 - SEA 34)	ATL · miss	SEA +3 · HIT
W7	TEN @ BUF	BUF -10	BUF -9.5	78%	+24 (BUF 34 - TEN 10)	BUF · HIT	BUF -9.5 · HIT
W7	BAL @ TB	BAL -1.5	BAL -4.5	45%	-10 (TB 31 - BAL 41)	BAL · HIT	TB +4.5 · miss
W7	LAC @ ARI	ARI -0.5	LAC -1	51%	+2 (ARI 17 - LAC 15)	ARI · HIT	ARI +1 · HIT
W8	MIN @ LA	LA -0.5	MIN -3	52%	+10 (LA 30 - MIN 20)	LA · HIT	LA +3 · HIT
W8	ARI @ MIA	pick'em	MIA -4	50%	-1 (MIA 27 - ARI 28)	MIA · miss	ARI +4 · HIT
W8	ATL @ TB	TB -7	ATL -1.5	70%	-5 (TB 26 - ATL 31)	TB · miss	TB +1.5 · miss
W8	BAL @ CLE	BAL -9.5	BAL -7.5	23%	+5 (CLE 29 - BAL 24)	BAL · miss	BAL -7.5 · miss
W8	BUF @ SEA	BUF -4	BUF -3	38%	-21 (SEA 10 - BUF 31)	BUF · HIT	BUF -3 · HIT
W8	CAR @ DEN	DEN -11	DEN -13	80%	+14 (DEN 28 - CAR 14)	DEN · HIT	CAR +13 · miss
W8	CHI @ WAS	pick'em	WAS -1.5	50%	+3 (WAS 18 - CHI 15)	CHI · miss	CHI +1.5 · miss
W8	DAL @ SF	SF -3.5	SF -5.5	61%	+6 (SF 30 - DAL 24)	SF · HIT	DAL +5.5 · miss
W8	GB @ JAX	GB -2.5	GB -3.5	42%	-3 (JAX 27 - GB 30)	GB · HIT	JAX +3.5 · HIT
W8	IND @ HOU	HOU -3	HOU -5	59%	+3 (HOU 23 - IND 20)	HOU · HIT	IND +5 · HIT
W8	KC @ LV	KC -6.5	KC -9	31%	-7 (LV 20 - KC 27)	KC · HIT	LV +9 · HIT
W8	NO @ LAC	LAC -0.5	LAC -7	52%	+18 (LAC 26 - NO 8)	LAC · HIT	NO +7 · miss
W8	NYJ @ NE	NYJ -0.5	NYJ -7	48%	+3 (NE 25 - NYJ 22)	NYJ · miss	NE +7 · HIT
W8	PHI @ CIN	PHI -0.5	CIN -2.5	49%	-20 (CIN 17 - PHI 37)	PHI · HIT	PHI +2.5 · HIT
W8	TEN @ DET	DET -11.5	DET -12.5	81%	+38 (DET 52 - TEN 14)	DET · HIT	TEN +12.5 · miss
W8	NYG @ PIT	PIT -8.5	PIT -6	74%	+8 (PIT 26 - NYG 18)	PIT · HIT	PIT -6 · HIT
W9	HOU @ NYJ	HOU -1	NYJ -2.5	46%	+8 (NYJ 21 - HOU 13)	HOU · miss	HOU +2.5 · miss
W9	CHI @ ARI	ARI -0.5	ARI -1.5	52%	+20 (ARI 29 - CHI 9)	ARI · HIT	CHI +1.5 · miss
W9	DAL @ ATL	DAL -1.5	ATL -3	46%	+6 (ATL 27 - DAL 21)	DAL · miss	DAL +3 · miss
W9	DEN @ BAL	BAL -8.5	BAL -9	74%	+31 (BAL 41 - DEN 10)	BAL · HIT	DEN +9 · miss
W9	DET @ GB	DET -2	DET -2.5	44%	-10 (GB 14 - DET 24)	DET · HIT	GB +2.5 · miss
W9	IND @ MIN	MIN -4.5	MIN -6.5	63%	+8 (MIN 21 - IND 13)	MIN · HIT	IND +6.5 · miss
W9	JAX @ PHI	PHI -6.5	PHI -7.5	69%	+5 (PHI 28 - JAX 23)	PHI · HIT	JAX +7.5 · HIT
W9	LAC @ CLE	LAC -1.5	LAC -2	45%	-17 (CLE 10 - LAC 27)	LAC · HIT	CLE +2 · miss
W9	LA @ SEA	LA -1.5	LA -1.5	46%	-6 (SEA 20 - LA 26)	LA · HIT	SEA +1.5 · miss
W9	LV @ CIN	CIN -6	CIN -8	68%	+17 (CIN 41 - LV 24)	CIN · HIT	LV +8 · miss
W9	MIA @ BUF	BUF -11.5	BUF -6.5	81%	+3 (BUF 30 - MIA 27)	BUF · HIT	BUF -6.5 · miss
W9	NE @ TEN	TEN -2.5	TEN -3	58%	+3 (TEN 20 - NE 17)	TEN · HIT	NE +3 · push
W9	NO @ CAR	NO -6.5	NO -7	32%	+1 (CAR 23 - NO 22)	NO · miss	CAR +7 · HIT
W9	WAS @ NYG	WAS -2	WAS -4.5	44%	-5 (NYG 22 - WAS 27)	WAS · HIT	NYG +4.5 · miss
W9	TB @ KC	KC -3.5	KC -9	61%	+6 (KC 30 - TB 24)	KC · HIT	TB +9 · HIT
W10	CIN @ BAL	BAL -10	BAL -6	78%	+1 (BAL 35 - CIN 34)	BAL · HIT	BAL -6 · miss
W10	ATL @ NO	NO -2.5	ATL -3.5	58%	+3 (NO 20 - ATL 17)	NO · HIT	NO +3.5 · HIT
W10	BUF @ IND	BUF -7	BUF -4.5	29%	-10 (IND 20 - BUF 30)	BUF · HIT	BUF -4.5 · HIT
W10	DEN @ KC	KC -7	KC -7.5	70%	+2 (KC 16 - DEN 14)	KC · HIT	DEN +7.5 · HIT
W10	DET @ HOU	DET -5.5	DET -4.5	33%	-3 (HOU 23 - DET 26)	DET · HIT	DET -4.5 · miss
W10	MIN @ JAX	MIN -1.5	MIN -7	45%	-5 (JAX 7 - MIN 12)	MIN · HIT	JAX +7 · HIT
W10	NE @ CHI	CHI -8	CHI -6.5	73%	-16 (CHI 3 - NE 19)	CHI · miss	CHI -6.5 · miss
W10	NYG @ CAR	NYG -2.5	NYG -6.5	42%	+3 (CAR 20 - NYG 17)	NYG · miss	CAR +6.5 · HIT
W10	NYJ @ ARI	ARI -5	NYJ -2	65%	+25 (ARI 31 - NYJ 6)	ARI · HIT	ARI +2 · HIT
W10	PHI @ DAL	PHI -3	PHI -7.5	41%	-28 (DAL 6 - PHI 34)	PHI · HIT	DAL +7.5 · miss
W10	PIT @ WAS	PIT -1.5	WAS -1.5	46%	-1 (WAS 27 - PIT 28)	PIT · HIT	PIT +1.5 · HIT
W10	SF @ TB	SF -3	SF -6.5	40%	-3 (TB 20 - SF 23)	SF · HIT	TB +6.5 · HIT
W10	TEN @ LAC	LAC -7.5	LAC -8	71%	+10 (LAC 27 - TEN 17)	LAC · HIT	TEN +8 · miss
W10	MIA @ LA	LA -4.5	LA -2.5	63%	-8 (LA 15 - MIA 23)	LA · miss	LA -2.5 · miss
W11	WAS @ PHI	PHI -7	PHI -4.5	70%	+8 (PHI 26 - WAS 18)	PHI · HIT	PHI -4.5 · HIT
W11	ATL @ DEN	DEN -1.5	DEN -2	55%	+32 (DEN 38 - ATL 6)	DEN · HIT	ATL +2 · miss
W11	BAL @ PIT	BAL -5.5	BAL -3	34%	+2 (PIT 18 - BAL 16)	BAL · miss	BAL -3 · miss
W11	CIN @ LAC	LAC -2	LAC -1	56%	+7 (LAC 34 - CIN 27)	LAC · HIT	LAC -1 · HIT
W11	CLE @ NO	NO -4.5	CLE -1	64%	+21 (NO 35 - CLE 14)	NO · HIT	NO +1 · HIT
W11	GB @ CHI	GB -5.5	GB -6	33%	-1 (CHI 19 - GB 20)	GB · HIT	CHI +6 · HIT
W11	IND @ NYJ	NYJ -1	NYJ -4	53%	-1 (NYJ 27 - IND 28)	NYJ · miss	IND +4 · HIT
W11	JAX @ DET	DET -12.5	DET -14	83%	+46 (DET 52 - JAX 6)	DET · HIT	JAX +14 · miss
W11	KC @ BUF	BUF -5.5	BUF -2.5	66%	+9 (BUF 30 - KC 21)	BUF · HIT	BUF -2.5 · HIT
W11	LA @ NE	LA -3.5	LA -4	39%	-6 (NE 22 - LA 28)	LA · HIT	NE +4 · miss
W11	LV @ MIA	MIA -5	MIA -8	65%	+15 (MIA 34 - LV 19)	MIA · HIT	LV +8 · miss
W11	MIN @ TEN	MIN -4	MIN -6	38%	-10 (TEN 13 - MIN 23)	MIN · HIT	TEN +6 · miss
W11	SEA @ SF	SF -7	SF -6	71%	-3 (SF 17 - SEA 20)	SF · miss	SF -6 · miss
W11	HOU @ DAL	DAL -0.5	HOU -7.5	51%	-24 (DAL 10 - HOU 34)	DAL · miss	DAL +7.5 · miss
W12	PIT @ CLE	PIT -5.5	PIT -3.5	33%	+5 (CLE 24 - PIT 19)	PIT · miss	PIT -3.5 · miss
W12	ARI @ SEA	ARI -2.5	ARI -1	42%	+10 (SEA 16 - ARI 6)	ARI · miss	ARI -1 · miss
W12	DAL @ WAS	WAS -5.5	WAS -10.5	66%	-8 (WAS 26 - DAL 34)	WAS · miss	DAL +10.5 · HIT
W12	DEN @ LV	DEN -5	DEN -6.5	36%	-10 (LV 19 - DEN 29)	DEN · HIT	LV +6.5 · miss
W12	DET @ IND	DET -9.5	DET -7	24%	-18 (IND 6 - DET 24)	DET · HIT	DET -7 · HIT
W12	KC @ CAR	KC -9	KC -11	25%	-3 (CAR 27 - KC 30)	KC · HIT	CAR +11 · HIT
W12	MIN @ CHI	MIN -1.5	MIN -3	45%	-3 (CHI 27 - MIN 30)	MIN · HIT	CHI +3 · push
W12	NE @ MIA	MIA -7	MIA -7.5	70%	+19 (MIA 34 - NE 15)	MIA · HIT	NE +7.5 · miss
W12	PHI @ LA	PHI -2.5	PHI -3	42%	-17 (LA 20 - PHI 37)	PHI · HIT	LA +3 · miss
W12	SF @ GB	GB -3	GB -6.5	59%	+28 (GB 38 - SF 10)	GB · HIT	SF +6.5 · miss
W12	TB @ NYG	TB -5.5	TB -6.5	33%	-23 (NYG 7 - TB 30)	TB · HIT	NYG +6.5 · miss
W12	TEN @ HOU	HOU -7.5	HOU -8	72%	-5 (HOU 27 - TEN 32)	HOU · miss	TEN +8 · HIT
W12	BAL @ LAC	BAL -3.5	BAL -3	40%	-7 (LAC 23 - BAL 30)	BAL · HIT	BAL -3 · HIT
W13	CHI @ DET	DET -12.5	DET -9.5	83%	+3 (DET 23 - CHI 20)	DET · HIT	DET -9.5 · miss
W13	MIA @ GB	GB -6.5	GB -3.5	69%	+13 (GB 30 - MIA 17)	GB · HIT	GB -3.5 · HIT
W13	NYG @ DAL	DAL -4.5	DAL -4.5	64%	+7 (DAL 27 - NYG 20)	DAL · HIT	DAL -4.5 · HIT
W13	LV @ KC	KC -11	KC -13.5	80%	+2 (KC 19 - LV 17)	KC · HIT	LV +13.5 · HIT
W13	ARI @ MIN	MIN -3.5	MIN -3.5	60%	+1 (MIN 23 - ARI 22)	MIN · HIT	ARI +3.5 · HIT
W13	HOU @ JAX	pick'em	HOU -3.5	49%	-3 (JAX 20 - HOU 23)	HOU · HIT	JAX +3.5 · HIT
W13	IND @ NE	NE -0.5	IND -2.5	51%	-1 (NE 24 - IND 25)	NE · miss	NE +2.5 · HIT
W13	LAC @ ATL	ATL -0.5	LAC -1	52%	-4 (ATL 13 - LAC 17)	ATL · miss	ATL +1 · miss
W13	LA @ NO	NO -3.5	LA -2.5	61%	-7 (NO 14 - LA 21)	NO · miss	NO +2.5 · miss
W13	PHI @ BAL	BAL -3	BAL -3	60%	-5 (BAL 19 - PHI 24)	BAL · miss	BAL -3 · miss
W13	PIT @ CIN	CIN -1.5	CIN -3	54%	-6 (CIN 38 - PIT 44)	CIN · miss	PIT +3 · HIT
W13	SEA @ NYJ	pick'em	NYJ -1	50%	-5 (NYJ 21 - SEA 26)	NYJ · miss	SEA +1 · HIT
W13	SF @ BUF	BUF -7.5	BUF -6.5	71%	+25 (BUF 35 - SF 10)	BUF · HIT	BUF -6.5 · HIT
W13	TB @ CAR	TB -9.5	TB -6.5	23%	-3 (CAR 23 - TB 26)	TB · HIT	TB -6.5 · miss
W13	TEN @ WAS	WAS -5.5	WAS -6	66%	+23 (WAS 42 - TEN 19)	WAS · HIT	TEN +6 · miss
W13	CLE @ DEN	DEN -8	DEN -6.5	73%	+9 (DEN 41 - CLE 32)	DEN · HIT	DEN -6.5 · HIT
W14	GB @ DET	DET -5.5	DET -3	67%	+3 (DET 34 - GB 31)	DET · HIT	DET -3 · push
W14	ATL @ MIN	MIN -5.5	MIN -6	67%	+21 (MIN 42 - ATL 21)	MIN · HIT	ATL +6 · miss
W14	BUF @ LA	BUF -5.5	BUF -3.5	34%	+2 (LA 44 - BUF 42)	BUF · miss	BUF -3.5 · miss
W14	CAR @ PHI	PHI -16	PHI -14	89%	+6 (PHI 22 - CAR 16)	PHI · HIT	PHI -14 · miss
W14	CHI @ SF	SF -4	SF -3	63%	+25 (SF 38 - CHI 13)	SF · HIT	SF -3 · HIT
W14	CLE @ PIT	PIT -8	PIT -6	73%	+13 (PIT 27 - CLE 14)	PIT · HIT	PIT -6 · HIT
W14	JAX @ TEN	TEN -1	TEN -3	54%	-4 (TEN 6 - JAX 10)	TEN · miss	JAX +3 · HIT
W14	LAC @ KC	KC -5	KC -5	65%	+2 (KC 19 - LAC 17)	KC · HIT	KC -5 · miss
W14	LV @ TB	TB -10	TB -7	78%	+15 (TB 28 - LV 13)	TB · HIT	TB -7 · HIT
W14	NO @ NYG	NO -4	NO -5.5	37%	-3 (NYG 11 - NO 14)	NO · HIT	NYG +5.5 · HIT
W14	NYJ @ MIA	MIA -5	MIA -6.5	66%	+6 (MIA 32 - NYJ 26)	MIA · HIT	NYJ +6.5 · HIT
W14	SEA @ ARI	ARI -3	ARI -3	59%	-12 (ARI 18 - SEA 30)	ARI · miss	SEA +3 · HIT
W14	CIN @ DAL	CIN -1.5	CIN -5	46%	-7 (DAL 20 - CIN 27)	CIN · HIT	DAL +5 · miss
W15	LA @ SF	SF -3.5	SF -3	60%	-6 (SF 6 - LA 12)	SF · miss	SF -3 · miss
W15	BAL @ NYG	BAL -12	BAL -16.5	18%	-21 (NYG 14 - BAL 35)	BAL · HIT	NYG +16.5 · miss
W15	BUF @ DET	DET -3	DET -2.5	58%	-6 (DET 42 - BUF 48)	DET · miss	DET -2.5 · miss
W15	CIN @ TEN	CIN -4	CIN -6	38%	-10 (TEN 27 - CIN 37)	CIN · HIT	TEN +6 · miss
W15	DAL @ CAR	DAL -1	CAR -2.5	47%	-16 (CAR 14 - DAL 30)	DAL · HIT	DAL +2.5 · HIT
W15	GB @ SEA	GB -2.5	GB -3	42%	-17 (SEA 13 - GB 30)	GB · HIT	SEA +3 · miss
W15	IND @ DEN	DEN -6.5	DEN -4.5	69%	+18 (DEN 31 - IND 13)	DEN · HIT	DEN -4.5 · HIT
W15	KC @ CLE	KC -5.5	KC -4.5	33%	-14 (CLE 7 - KC 21)	KC · HIT	KC -4.5 · HIT
W15	MIA @ HOU	HOU -3.5	HOU -2.5	61%	+8 (HOU 20 - MIA 12)	HOU · HIT	HOU -2.5 · HIT
W15	NE @ ARI	ARI -6	ARI -6	68%	+13 (ARI 30 - NE 17)	ARI · HIT	ARI -6 · HIT
W15	NYJ @ JAX	JAX -1	NYJ -3.5	52%	-7 (JAX 25 - NYJ 32)	JAX · miss	JAX +3.5 · miss
W15	PIT @ PHI	PHI -7.5	PHI -5.5	72%	+14 (PHI 27 - PIT 13)	PHI · HIT	PHI -5.5 · HIT
W15	TB @ LAC	TB -1	LAC -3	47%	-23 (LAC 17 - TB 40)	TB · HIT	TB +3 · HIT
W15	WAS @ NO	WAS -2	WAS -7.5	43%	-1 (NO 19 - WAS 20)	WAS · HIT	NO +7.5 · HIT
W15	ATL @ LV	ATL -1.5	ATL -6.5	45%	-6 (LV 9 - ATL 15)	ATL · HIT	LV +6.5 · HIT
W15	CHI @ MIN	MIN -6.5	MIN -7	69%	+18 (MIN 30 - CHI 12)	MIN · HIT	CHI +7 · miss
W16	DEN @ LAC	DEN -1	LAC -3	47%	+7 (LAC 34 - DEN 27)	DEN · miss	DEN +3 · miss
W16	HOU @ KC	KC -5	KC -3.5	65%	+8 (KC 27 - HOU 19)	KC · HIT	KC -3.5 · HIT
W16	PIT @ BAL	BAL -9	BAL -7	76%	+17 (BAL 34 - PIT 17)	BAL · HIT	BAL -7 · HIT
W16	ARI @ CAR	ARI -6.5	ARI -5.5	30%	+6 (CAR 36 - ARI 30)	ARI · miss	ARI -5.5 · miss
W16	CLE @ CIN	CIN -8.5	CIN -10	75%	+18 (CIN 24 - CLE 6)	CIN · HIT	CLE +10 · miss
W16	DET @ CHI	DET -8.5	DET -7	26%	-17 (CHI 17 - DET 34)	DET · HIT	DET -7 · HIT
W16	JAX @ LV	pick'em	LV -2.5	50%	+5 (LV 19 - JAX 14)	LV · HIT	JAX +2.5 · miss
W16	LA @ NYJ	LA -2	LA -3	43%	-10 (NYJ 9 - LA 19)	LA · HIT	NYJ +3 · miss
W16	MIN @ SEA	MIN -1.5	MIN -2.5	46%	-3 (SEA 24 - MIN 27)	MIN · HIT	SEA +2.5 · miss
W16	NE @ BUF	BUF -16	BUF -14	89%	+3 (BUF 24 - NE 21)	BUF · HIT	BUF -14 · miss
W16	NYG @ ATL	ATL -5	ATL -9.5	65%	+27 (ATL 34 - NYG 7)	ATL · HIT	NYG +9.5 · miss
W16	PHI @ WAS	PHI -4	PHI -4	38%	+3 (WAS 36 - PHI 33)	PHI · miss	PHI -4 · miss
W16	SF @ MIA	SF -1.5	SF -2	46%	+12 (MIA 29 - SF 17)	SF · miss	MIA +2 · HIT
W16	TB @ DAL	TB -5.5	TB -4.5	34%	+2 (DAL 26 - TB 24)	TB · miss	TB -4.5 · miss
W16	TEN @ IND	IND -3.5	IND -4	61%	+8 (IND 38 - TEN 30)	IND · HIT	TEN +4 · miss
W16	NO @ GB	GB -10	GB -14	78%	+34 (GB 34 - NO 0)	GB · HIT	NO +14 · miss
W17	BAL @ HOU	BAL -6	BAL -5.5	32%	-29 (HOU 2 - BAL 31)	BAL · HIT	BAL -5.5 · HIT
W17	KC @ PIT	KC -1	KC -3	47%	-19 (PIT 10 - KC 29)	KC · HIT	PIT +3 · miss
W17	SEA @ CHI	SEA -1	SEA -3.5	47%	-3 (CHI 3 - SEA 6)	SEA · HIT	CHI +3.5 · HIT
W17	ARI @ LA	LA -3	LA -6.5	60%	+4 (LA 13 - ARI 9)	LA · HIT	ARI +6.5 · HIT
W17	DEN @ CIN	CIN -2	CIN -3.5	56%	+6 (CIN 30 - DEN 24)	CIN · HIT	DEN +3.5 · miss
W17	LAC @ NE	LAC -3	LAC -6	41%	-33 (NE 7 - LAC 40)	LAC · HIT	NE +6 · miss
W17	ATL @ WAS	WAS -5.5	WAS -3.5	67%	+6 (WAS 30 - ATL 24)	WAS · HIT	WAS -3.5 · HIT
W17	CAR @ TB	TB -14	TB -9.5	86%	+34 (TB 48 - CAR 14)	TB · HIT	TB -9.5 · HIT
W17	DAL @ PHI	PHI -11.5	PHI -7.5	82%	+34 (PHI 41 - DAL 7)	PHI · HIT	PHI -7.5 · HIT
W17	GB @ MIN	GB -1.5	GB -1	45%	+2 (MIN 27 - GB 25)	GB · miss	GB -1 · miss
W17	IND @ NYG	IND -3	IND -7.5	41%	+12 (NYG 45 - IND 33)	IND · miss	NYG +7.5 · HIT
W17	LV @ NO	NO -4.5	LV -2	63%	-15 (NO 10 - LV 25)	NO · miss	NO +2 · miss
W17	MIA @ CLE	MIA -2	MIA -3	44%	-17 (CLE 3 - MIA 20)	MIA · HIT	CLE +3 · miss
W17	NYJ @ BUF	BUF -13	BUF -10	85%	+26 (BUF 40 - NYJ 14)	BUF · HIT	BUF -10 · HIT
W17	TEN @ JAX	JAX -3	TEN -1	59%	+7 (JAX 20 - TEN 13)	JAX · HIT	JAX +1 · HIT
W17	DET @ SF	DET -4.5	DET -4	36%	-6 (SF 34 - DET 40)	DET · HIT	DET -4 · HIT
W18	CIN @ PIT	CIN -0.5	CIN -2.5	49%	-2 (PIT 17 - CIN 19)	CIN · HIT	PIT +2.5 · HIT
W18	CLE @ BAL	BAL -20.5	BAL -19.5	94%	+25 (BAL 35 - CLE 10)	BAL · HIT	BAL -19.5 · HIT
W18	BUF @ NE	BUF -12.5	BUF -3	16%	+7 (NE 23 - BUF 16)	BUF · miss	BUF -3 · miss
W18	CAR @ ATL	ATL -8	ATL -7.5	73%	-6 (ATL 38 - CAR 44)	ATL · miss	ATL -7.5 · miss
W18	CHI @ GB	GB -12.5	GB -10	83%	-2 (GB 22 - CHI 24)	GB · miss	GB -10 · miss
W18	HOU @ TEN	pick'em	TEN -2.5	50%	-9 (TEN 14 - HOU 23)	TEN · miss	HOU +2.5 · HIT
W18	JAX @ IND	IND -3	IND -3.5	59%	+3 (IND 26 - JAX 23)	IND · HIT	JAX +3.5 · HIT
W18	KC @ DEN	DEN -2.5	DEN -10.5	58%	+38 (DEN 38 - KC 0)	DEN · HIT	KC +10.5 · miss
W18	LAC @ LV	LAC -5.5	LAC -7	33%	-14 (LV 20 - LAC 34)	LAC · HIT	LV +7 · miss
W18	MIA @ NYJ	MIA -1	NYJ -1.5	48%	+12 (NYJ 32 - MIA 20)	MIA · miss	MIA +1.5 · miss
W18	MIN @ DET	DET -7	DET -3	70%	+22 (DET 31 - MIN 9)	DET · HIT	DET -3 · HIT
W18	NO @ TB	TB -14	TB -14.5	86%	+8 (TB 27 - NO 19)	TB · HIT	NO +14.5 · HIT
W18	NYG @ PHI	PHI -16	PHI -3	89%	+7 (PHI 20 - NYG 13)	PHI · HIT	PHI -3 · HIT
W18	SEA @ LA	LA -1	SEA -7.5	53%	-5 (LA 25 - SEA 30)	LA · miss	LA +7.5 · HIT
W18	SF @ ARI	ARI -3	ARI -4.5	60%	+23 (ARI 47 - SF 24)	ARI · HIT	SF +4.5 · miss
W18	WAS @ DAL	WAS -4.5	WAS -7	36%	-4 (DAL 19 - WAS 23)	WAS · HIT	DAL +7 · HIT

2025 season — every game (272)

Wk	Game	Bayesian Model line	Vegas line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home score first)	Bayesian Model winner pick	Bayesian Model spread pick
W1	DAL @ PHI	PHI -12	PHI -8.5	82%	+4 (PHI 24 - DAL 20)	PHI · HIT	PHI -8.5 · miss
W1	KC @ LAC	LAC -2	KC -3	56%	+6 (LAC 27 - KC 21)	LAC · HIT	LAC +3 · HIT
W1	ARI @ NO	ARI -5	ARI -6	36%	-7 (NO 13 - ARI 20)	ARI · HIT	NO +6 · miss
W1	BAL @ BUF	BAL -0.5	BAL -1.5	48%	+1 (BUF 41 - BAL 40)	BAL · miss	BUF +1.5 · HIT
W1	CAR @ JAX	JAX -4.5	JAX -4.5	63%	+16 (JAX 26 - CAR 10)	JAX · HIT	CAR +4.5 · miss
W1	CIN @ CLE	CIN -9.5	CIN -5.5	24%	-1 (CLE 16 - CIN 17)	CIN · HIT	CIN -5.5 · miss
W1	DET @ GB	DET -1.5	GB -1.5	46%	+14 (GB 27 - DET 13)	DET · miss	DET +1.5 · miss
W1	HOU @ LA	LA -3	LA -3.5	59%	+5 (LA 14 - HOU 9)	LA · HIT	HOU +3.5 · miss
W1	LV @ NE	NE -2.5	NE -2.5	57%	-7 (NE 13 - LV 20)	NE · miss	LV +2.5 · HIT
W1	MIA @ IND	MIA -2	IND -1.5	44%	+25 (IND 33 - MIA 8)	MIA · miss	MIA +1.5 · miss
W1	NYG @ WAS	WAS -9	WAS -6	76%	+15 (WAS 21 - NYG 6)	WAS · HIT	WAS -6 · HIT
W1	PIT @ NYJ	PIT -1	PIT -3	48%	-2 (NYJ 32 - PIT 34)	PIT · HIT	NYJ +3 · HIT
W1	SF @ SEA	SF -1.5	SF -2.5	45%	-4 (SEA 13 - SF 17)	SF · HIT	SEA +2.5 · miss
W1	TB @ ATL	TB -7.5	TB -1.5	28%	-3 (ATL 20 - TB 23)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
W1	TEN @ DEN	DEN -12.5	DEN -8.5	83%	+8 (DEN 20 - TEN 12)	DEN · HIT	DEN -8.5 · miss
W1	MIN @ CHI	MIN -1	MIN -1.5	47%	-3 (CHI 24 - MIN 27)	MIN · HIT	CHI +1.5 · miss
W2	WAS @ GB	GB -5.5	GB -3.5	67%	+9 (GB 27 - WAS 18)	GB · HIT	GB -3.5 · HIT
W2	ATL @ MIN	MIN -3	MIN -3.5	60%	-16 (MIN 6 - ATL 22)	MIN · miss	ATL +3.5 · HIT
W2	BUF @ NYJ	BUF -9.5	BUF -6	23%	-20 (NYJ 10 - BUF 30)	BUF · HIT	BUF -6 · HIT
W2	CAR @ ARI	ARI -10.5	ARI -7	79%	+5 (ARI 27 - CAR 22)	ARI · HIT	ARI -7 · miss
W2	CHI @ DET	DET -11	DET -6	80%	+31 (DET 52 - CHI 21)	DET · HIT	DET -6 · HIT
W2	CLE @ BAL	BAL -18	BAL -12.5	92%	+24 (BAL 41 - CLE 17)	BAL · HIT	BAL -12.5 · HIT
W2	DEN @ IND	DEN -5	DEN -2.5	35%	+1 (IND 29 - DEN 28)	DEN · miss	DEN -2.5 · miss
W2	JAX @ CIN	CIN -6	CIN -3.5	67%	+4 (CIN 31 - JAX 27)	CIN · HIT	CIN -3.5 · HIT
W2	LA @ TEN	LA -7.5	LA -5.5	28%	-14 (TEN 19 - LA 33)	LA · HIT	LA -5.5 · HIT
W2	NE @ MIA	MIA -4.5	MIA -1.5	63%	-6 (MIA 27 - NE 33)	MIA · miss	MIA -1.5 · miss
W2	NYG @ DAL	DAL -5	DAL -4.5	66%	+3 (DAL 40 - NYG 37)	DAL · HIT	DAL -4.5 · miss
W2	PHI @ KC	PHI -3	PHI -1.5	41%	-3 (KC 17 - PHI 20)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
W2	SEA @ PIT	PIT -1.5	PIT -3.5	54%	-14 (PIT 17 - SEA 31)	PIT · miss	SEA +3.5 · HIT
W2	SF @ NO	SF -0.5	SF -3	48%	-5 (NO 21 - SF 26)	SF · HIT	NO +3 · miss
W2	LAC @ LV	LAC -7	LAC -3.5	30%	-11 (LV 9 - LAC 20)	LAC · HIT	LAC -3.5 · HIT
W2	TB @ HOU	TB -5	HOU -2.5	34%	-1 (HOU 19 - TB 20)	TB · HIT	TB +2.5 · HIT
W3	MIA @ BUF	BUF -11.5	BUF -12.5	82%	+10 (BUF 31 - MIA 21)	BUF · HIT	MIA +12.5 · HIT
W3	ARI @ SF	ARI -2	SF -1.5	44%	+1 (SF 16 - ARI 15)	ARI · miss	ARI +1.5 · HIT
W3	ATL @ CAR	ATL -4	ATL -5.5	38%	+30 (CAR 30 - ATL 0)	ATL · miss	CAR +5.5 · HIT
W3	CIN @ MIN	MIN -0.5	MIN -3	52%	+38 (MIN 48 - CIN 10)	MIN · HIT	CIN +3 · miss
W3	DAL @ CHI	CHI -0.5	DAL -1.5	52%	+17 (CHI 31 - DAL 14)	CHI · HIT	CHI +1.5 · HIT
W3	DEN @ LAC	pick'em	LAC -2.5	50%	+3 (LAC 23 - DEN 20)	LAC · HIT	DEN +2.5 · miss
W3	GB @ CLE	GB -13	GB -8.5	16%	+3 (CLE 13 - GB 10)	GB · miss	GB -8.5 · miss
W3	HOU @ JAX	pick'em	JAX -1.5	50%	+7 (JAX 17 - HOU 10)	JAX · HIT	HOU +1.5 · miss
W3	IND @ TEN	IND -4	IND -6	37%	-21 (TEN 20 - IND 41)	IND · HIT	TEN +6 · miss
W3	KC @ NYG	KC -6	KC -6	32%	-13 (NYG 9 - KC 22)	KC · HIT	NYG +6 · miss
W3	LA @ PHI	PHI -5.5	PHI -3.5	66%	+7 (PHI 33 - LA 26)	PHI · HIT	PHI -3.5 · HIT
W3	LV @ WAS	WAS -8	WAS -2.5	73%	+17 (WAS 41 - LV 24)	WAS · HIT	WAS -2.5 · HIT
W3	NO @ SEA	SEA -4	SEA -7.5	62%	+31 (SEA 44 - NO 13)	SEA · HIT	NO +7.5 · miss
W3	NYJ @ TB	TB -13.5	TB -6.5	85%	+2 (TB 29 - NYJ 27)	TB · HIT	TB -6.5 · miss
W3	PIT @ NE	NE -1	PIT -1.5	53%	-7 (NE 14 - PIT 21)	NE · miss	NE +1.5 · miss
W3	DET @ BAL	BAL -2.5	BAL -4.5	57%	-8 (BAL 30 - DET 38)	BAL · miss	DET +4.5 · HIT
W4	SEA @ ARI	ARI -3.5	SEA -1.5	61%	-3 (ARI 20 - SEA 23)	ARI · miss	ARI +1.5 · miss
W4	BAL @ KC	BAL -4	BAL -2.5	37%	+17 (KC 37 - BAL 20)	BAL · miss	BAL -2.5 · miss
W4	CAR @ NE	NE -2	NE -5.5	56%	+29 (NE 42 - CAR 13)	NE · HIT	CAR +5.5 · miss
W4	CHI @ LV	CHI -1	LV -1.5	46%	-1 (LV 24 - CHI 25)	CHI · HIT	CHI +1.5 · HIT
W4	CLE @ DET	DET -17.5	DET -10	91%	+24 (DET 34 - CLE 10)	DET · HIT	DET -10 · HIT
W4	GB @ DAL	GB -7	GB -7	29%	0 (DAL 40 - GB 40)	GB · miss	GB -7 · miss
W4	IND @ LA	LA -5	LA -3.5	64%	+7 (LA 27 - IND 20)	LA · HIT	LA -3.5 · HIT
W4	JAX @ SF	SF -4	SF -3.5	63%	-5 (SF 21 - JAX 26)	SF · miss	SF -3.5 · miss
W4	LAC @ NYG	LAC -8	LAC -6	27%	+3 (NYG 21 - LAC 18)	LAC · miss	LAC -6 · miss
W4	MIN @ PIT	pick'em	MIN -2.5	50%	+3 (PIT 24 - MIN 21)	MIN · miss	PIT +2.5 · HIT
W4	NO @ BUF	BUF -14.5	BUF -15.5	87%	+12 (BUF 31 - NO 19)	BUF · HIT	NO +15.5 · HIT
W4	PHI @ TB	TB -1.5	PHI -3.5	54%	-6 (TB 25 - PHI 31)	TB · miss	TB +3.5 · miss
W4	TEN @ HOU	HOU -9	HOU -7.5	75%	+26 (HOU 26 - TEN 0)	HOU · HIT	HOU -7.5 · HIT
W4	WAS @ ATL	WAS -2.5	ATL -2.5	42%	+7 (ATL 34 - WAS 27)	WAS · miss	WAS +2.5 · miss
W4	CIN @ DEN	DEN -8.5	DEN -7.5	75%	+25 (DEN 28 - CIN 3)	DEN · HIT	DEN -7.5 · HIT
W4	NYJ @ MIA	MIA -5.5	MIA -2.5	66%	+6 (MIA 27 - NYJ 21)	MIA · HIT	MIA -2.5 · HIT
W5	SF @ LA	LA -6	LA -8.5	68%	-3 (LA 23 - SF 26)	LA · miss	SF +8.5 · HIT
W5	DAL @ NYJ	NYJ -0.5	NYJ -1.5	51%	-15 (NYJ 22 - DAL 37)	NYJ · miss	DAL +1.5 · HIT
W5	DEN @ PHI	PHI -4	PHI -3.5	62%	-4 (PHI 17 - DEN 21)	PHI · miss	PHI -3.5 · miss
W5	DET @ CIN	DET -11	DET -10.5	20%	-13 (CIN 24 - DET 37)	DET · HIT	DET -10.5 · HIT
W5	HOU @ BAL	BAL -6	HOU -2.5	68%	-34 (BAL 10 - HOU 44)	BAL · miss	BAL +2.5 · miss
W5	LV @ IND	IND -6.5	IND -7	69%	+34 (IND 40 - LV 6)	IND · HIT	LV +7 · miss
W5	MIA @ CAR	MIA -2	MIA -1.5	44%	+3 (CAR 27 - MIA 24)	MIA · miss	MIA -1.5 · miss
W5	MIN @ CLE	MIN -5	MIN -3.5	34%	-4 (CLE 17 - MIN 21)	MIN · HIT	MIN -3.5 · HIT
W5	NE @ BUF	BUF -11.5	BUF -7.5	81%	-3 (BUF 20 - NE 23)	BUF · miss	BUF -7.5 · miss
W5	NYG @ NO	NO -4.5	NO -1.5	64%	+12 (NO 26 - NYG 14)	NO · HIT	NO -1.5 · HIT
W5	TB @ SEA	TB -2	SEA -3.5	44%	-3 (SEA 35 - TB 38)	TB · HIT	TB +3.5 · HIT
W5	TEN @ ARI	ARI -13	ARI -7.5	84%	-1 (ARI 21 - TEN 22)	ARI · miss	ARI -7.5 · miss
W5	WAS @ LAC	LAC -3	LAC -2.5	59%	-17 (LAC 10 - WAS 27)	LAC · miss	LAC -2.5 · miss
W5	KC @ JAX	KC -1	KC -3.5	46%	+3 (JAX 31 - KC 28)	KC · miss	JAX +3.5 · HIT
W6	PHI @ NYG	PHI -10.5	PHI -7	21%	+17 (NYG 34 - PHI 17)	PHI · miss	PHI -7 · miss
W6	ARI @ IND	IND -5	IND -8.5	65%	+4 (IND 31 - ARI 27)	IND · HIT	ARI +8.5 · HIT
W6	CIN @ GB	GB -13	GB -14	85%	+9 (GB 27 - CIN 18)	GB · HIT	CIN +14 · HIT
W6	CLE @ PIT	PIT -8	PIT -5.5	73%	+14 (PIT 23 - CLE 9)	PIT · HIT	PIT -5.5 · HIT
W6	DAL @ CAR	pick'em	DAL -3	50%	+3 (CAR 30 - DAL 27)	DAL · miss	CAR +3 · HIT
W6	DEN @ NYJ	DEN -7.5	DEN -7.5	28%	-2 (NYJ 11 - DEN 13)	DEN · HIT	NYJ +7.5 · HIT
W6	DET @ KC	DET -4.5	KC -2.5	37%	+13 (KC 30 - DET 17)	DET · miss	DET +2.5 · miss
W6	LAC @ MIA	LAC -1.5	LAC -3.5	45%	-2 (MIA 27 - LAC 29)	LAC · HIT	MIA +3.5 · HIT
W6	LA @ BAL	BAL -1.5	LA -7	54%	-14 (BAL 3 - LA 17)	BAL · miss	BAL +7 · miss
W6	NE @ NO	pick'em	NE -3.5	49%	-6 (NO 19 - NE 25)	NE · HIT	NO +3.5 · miss
W6	SEA @ JAX	pick'em	SEA -1.5	49%	-8 (JAX 12 - SEA 20)	SEA · HIT	JAX +1.5 · miss
W6	SF @ TB	TB -8	TB -3.5	73%	+11 (TB 30 - SF 19)	TB · HIT	TB -3.5 · HIT
W6	TEN @ LV	LV -3.5	LV -3.5	60%	+10 (LV 20 - TEN 10)	LV · HIT	TEN +3.5 · miss
W6	BUF @ ATL	BUF -5	BUF -3.5	35%	+10 (ATL 24 - BUF 14)	BUF · miss	BUF -3.5 · miss
W6	CHI @ WAS	WAS -6	WAS -5.5	67%	-1 (WAS 24 - CHI 25)	WAS · miss	WAS -5.5 · miss
W7	PIT @ CIN	PIT -1.5	PIT -5.5	45%	+2 (CIN 33 - PIT 31)	PIT · miss	CIN +5.5 · HIT
W7	ATL @ SF	SF -1.5	SF -1.5	54%	+10 (SF 20 - ATL 10)	SF · HIT	ATL +1.5 · miss
W7	CAR @ NYJ	pick'em	NYJ -1.5	50%	-7 (NYJ 6 - CAR 13)	NYJ · miss	CAR +1.5 · HIT
W7	GB @ ARI	GB -5	GB -7	35%	-4 (ARI 23 - GB 27)	GB · HIT	ARI +7 · HIT
W7	IND @ LAC	LAC -2.5	LAC -2.5	58%	-14 (LAC 24 - IND 38)	LAC · miss	LAC -2.5 · miss
W7	LA @ JAX	LA -1.5	LA -3	46%	-28 (JAX 7 - LA 35)	LA · HIT	JAX +3 · miss
W7	LV @ KC	KC -10.5	KC -13.5	79%	+31 (KC 31 - LV 0)	KC · HIT	LV +13.5 · miss
W7	MIA @ CLE	MIA -3.5	CLE -2.5	39%	+25 (CLE 31 - MIA 6)	MIA · miss	MIA +2.5 · miss
W7	NE @ TEN	NE -4	NE -6.5	38%	-18 (TEN 13 - NE 31)	NE · HIT	TEN +6.5 · miss
W7	NO @ CHI	CHI -4	CHI -4.5	62%	+12 (CHI 26 - NO 14)	CHI · HIT	NO +4.5 · miss
W7	NYG @ DEN	DEN -10.5	DEN -7.5	79%	+1 (DEN 33 - NYG 32)	DEN · HIT	DEN -7.5 · miss
W7	PHI @ MIN	PHI -2	PHI -2.5	44%	-6 (MIN 22 - PHI 28)	PHI · HIT	MIN +2.5 · miss
W7	WAS @ DAL	WAS -1	DAL -1.5	46%	+22 (DAL 44 - WAS 22)	WAS · miss	WAS +1.5 · miss
W7	HOU @ SEA	HOU -0.5	SEA -3	48%	+8 (SEA 27 - HOU 19)	HOU · miss	HOU +3 · miss
W7	TB @ DET	DET -4.5	DET -6	63%	+15 (DET 24 - TB 9)	DET · HIT	TB +6 · miss
W8	MIN @ LAC	LAC -3.5	LAC -3	61%	+27 (LAC 37 - MIN 10)	LAC · HIT	LAC -3 · HIT
W8	BUF @ CAR	BUF -6.5	BUF -7	31%	-31 (CAR 9 - BUF 40)	BUF · HIT	CAR +7 · miss
W8	CHI @ BAL	BAL -3.5	BAL -2.5	61%	+14 (BAL 30 - CHI 16)	BAL · HIT	BAL -2.5 · HIT
W8	CLE @ NE	NE -7.5	NE -7	71%	+19 (NE 32 - CLE 13)	NE · HIT	NE -7 · HIT
W8	DAL @ DEN	DEN -7	DEN -3.5	70%	+20 (DEN 44 - DAL 24)	DEN · HIT	DEN -3.5 · HIT
W8	GB @ PIT	GB -3.5	GB -3	39%	-10 (PIT 25 - GB 35)	GB · HIT	GB -3 · HIT
W8	MIA @ ATL	ATL -3	ATL -7	60%	-24 (ATL 10 - MIA 34)	ATL · miss	MIA +7 · HIT
W8	NYG @ PHI	PHI -11	PHI -7	81%	+18 (PHI 38 - NYG 20)	PHI · HIT	PHI -7 · HIT
W8	NYJ @ CIN	CIN -4	CIN -5.5	62%	-1 (CIN 38 - NYJ 39)	CIN · miss	NYJ +5.5 · HIT
W8	SF @ HOU	HOU -3.5	HOU -2.5	61%	+11 (HOU 26 - SF 15)	HOU · HIT	HOU -2.5 · HIT
W8	TB @ NO	TB -6	TB -4.5	32%	-20 (NO 3 - TB 23)	TB · HIT	TB -4.5 · HIT
W8	TEN @ IND	IND -13	IND -15.5	84%	+24 (IND 38 - TEN 14)	IND · HIT	TEN +15.5 · miss
W8	WAS @ KC	KC -6	KC -10.5	68%	+21 (KC 28 - WAS 7)	KC · HIT	WAS +10.5 · miss
W9	BAL @ MIA	BAL -1.5	BAL -7.5	45%	-22 (MIA 6 - BAL 28)	BAL · HIT	MIA +7.5 · miss
W9	ATL @ NE	NE -5.5	NE -5.5	66%	+1 (NE 24 - ATL 23)	NE · HIT	ATL +5.5 · HIT
W9	CAR @ GB	GB -12	GB -12.5	82%	-3 (GB 13 - CAR 16)	GB · miss	CAR +12.5 · HIT
W9	CHI @ CIN	CHI -0.5	CHI -3	49%	-5 (CIN 42 - CHI 47)	CHI · HIT	CIN +3 · miss
W9	DEN @ HOU	DEN -1	HOU -1.5	47%	-3 (HOU 15 - DEN 18)	DEN · HIT	DEN +1.5 · HIT
W9	IND @ PIT	IND -2.5	IND -3.5	42%	+7 (PIT 27 - IND 20)	IND · miss	PIT +3.5 · HIT
W9	JAX @ LV	JAX -2.5	JAX -2.5	42%	-1 (LV 29 - JAX 30)	JAX · HIT	JAX -2.5 · miss
W9	KC @ BUF	BUF -3.5	KC -2.5	61%	+7 (BUF 28 - KC 21)	BUF · HIT	BUF +2.5 · HIT
W9	LAC @ TEN	LAC -9	LAC -10	25%	-7 (TEN 20 - LAC 27)	LAC · HIT	TEN +10 · HIT
W9	MIN @ DET	DET -13.5	DET -9.5	85%	-3 (DET 24 - MIN 27)	DET · miss	DET -9.5 · miss
W9	NO @ LA	LA -13.5	LA -14	85%	+24 (LA 34 - NO 10)	LA · HIT	NO +14 · miss
W9	SEA @ WAS	SEA -1	SEA -2.5	47%	-24 (WAS 14 - SEA 38)	SEA · HIT	WAS +2.5 · miss
W9	SF @ NYG	SF -2	SF -2.5	44%	-10 (NYG 24 - SF 34)	SF · HIT	NYG +2.5 · miss
W9	ARI @ DAL	DAL -1	DAL -3.5	52%	-10 (DAL 17 - ARI 27)	DAL · miss	ARI +3.5 · HIT
W10	LV @ DEN	DEN -13	DEN -9.5	85%	+3 (DEN 10 - LV 7)	DEN · HIT	DEN -9.5 · miss
W10	ARI @ SEA	SEA -6.5	SEA -7	69%	+22 (SEA 44 - ARI 22)	SEA · HIT	ARI +7 · miss
W10	ATL @ IND	IND -8.5	IND -6.5	74%	+6 (IND 31 - ATL 25)	IND · HIT	IND -6.5 · miss
W10	BAL @ MIN	BAL -5	BAL -4.5	35%	-8 (MIN 19 - BAL 27)	BAL · HIT	BAL -4.5 · HIT
W10	BUF @ MIA	BUF -5	BUF -8.5	35%	+17 (MIA 30 - BUF 13)	BUF · miss	MIA +8.5 · HIT
W10	CLE @ NYJ	NYJ -2	CLE -1.5	56%	+7 (NYJ 27 - CLE 20)	NYJ · HIT	NYJ +1.5 · HIT
W10	DET @ WAS	DET -6.5	DET -8.5	31%	-22 (WAS 22 - DET 44)	DET · HIT	WAS +8.5 · miss
W10	JAX @ HOU	HOU -2	JAX -1.5	57%	+7 (HOU 36 - JAX 29)	HOU · HIT	HOU +1.5 · HIT
W10	LA @ SF	LA -2.5	LA -5.5	43%	-16 (SF 26 - LA 42)	LA · HIT	SF +5.5 · miss
W10	NE @ TB	TB -8.5	TB -2.5	74%	-5 (TB 23 - NE 28)	TB · miss	TB -2.5 · miss
W10	NO @ CAR	CAR -7	CAR -5.5	71%	-10 (CAR 7 - NO 17)	CAR · miss	CAR -5.5 · miss
W10	NYG @ CHI	CHI -7	CHI -4.5	71%	+4 (CHI 24 - NYG 20)	CHI · HIT	CHI -4.5 · miss
W10	PIT @ LAC	LAC -6	LAC -3	67%	+15 (LAC 25 - PIT 10)	LAC · HIT	LAC -3 · HIT
W10	PHI @ GB	PHI -0.5	GB -1.5	48%	-3 (GB 7 - PHI 10)	PHI · HIT	PHI +1.5 · HIT
W11	NYJ @ NE	NE -9	NE -12.5	75%	+13 (NE 27 - NYJ 14)	NE · HIT	NYJ +12.5 · miss
W11	BAL @ CLE	BAL -8	BAL -7.5	27%	-7 (CLE 16 - BAL 23)	BAL · HIT	BAL -7.5 · miss
W11	CAR @ ATL	ATL -3.5	ATL -4.5	60%	-3 (ATL 27 - CAR 30)	ATL · miss	CAR +4.5 · HIT
W11	CHI @ MIN	MIN -0.5	MIN -3	51%	-2 (MIN 17 - CHI 19)	MIN · miss	CHI +3 · HIT
W11	CIN @ PIT	PIT -2.5	PIT -5.5	58%	+22 (PIT 34 - CIN 12)	PIT · HIT	CIN +5.5 · miss
W11	DET @ PHI	DET -1	PHI -2.5	47%	+7 (PHI 16 - DET 9)	DET · miss	DET +2.5 · miss
W11	GB @ NYG	GB -8.5	GB -7.5	26%	-7 (NYG 20 - GB 27)	GB · HIT	GB -7.5 · miss
W11	HOU @ TEN	HOU -2.5	HOU -5.5	42%	-3 (TEN 13 - HOU 16)	HOU · HIT	TEN +5.5 · HIT
W11	KC @ DEN	pick'em	KC -3.5	50%	+3 (DEN 22 - KC 19)	DEN · HIT	DEN +3.5 · HIT
W11	LAC @ JAX	LAC -3	LAC -3	41%	+29 (JAX 35 - LAC 6)	LAC · miss	LAC -3 · miss
W11	SEA @ LA	LA -3.5	LA -3	61%	+2 (LA 21 - SEA 19)	LA · HIT	LA -3 · miss
W11	SF @ ARI	ARI -1	SF -3.5	53%	-19 (ARI 22 - SF 41)	ARI · miss	ARI +3.5 · miss
W11	TB @ BUF	BUF -2.5	BUF -6	58%	+12 (BUF 44 - TB 32)	BUF · HIT	TB +6 · miss
W11	WAS @ MIA	MIA -5.5	MIA -2.5	66%	+3 (MIA 16 - WAS 13)	MIA · HIT	MIA -2.5 · HIT
W11	DAL @ LV	DAL -2.5	DAL -3.5	42%	-17 (LV 16 - DAL 33)	DAL · HIT	LV +3.5 · miss
W12	BUF @ HOU	BUF -4	BUF -5.5	38%	+4 (HOU 23 - BUF 19)	BUF · miss	HOU +5.5 · HIT
W12	ATL @ NO	NO -1.5	NO -1.5	54%	-14 (NO 10 - ATL 24)	NO · miss	ATL +1.5 · HIT
W12	CLE @ LV	LV -2.5	LV -3	58%	-14 (LV 10 - CLE 24)	LV · miss	CLE +3 · HIT
W12	IND @ KC	KC -1.5	KC -3.5	54%	+3 (KC 23 - IND 20)	KC · HIT	IND +3.5 · HIT
W12	JAX @ ARI	JAX -0.5	JAX -2.5	49%	-3 (ARI 24 - JAX 27)	JAX · HIT	ARI +2.5 · miss
W12	MIN @ GB	GB -9	GB -6.5	76%	+17 (GB 23 - MIN 6)	GB · HIT	GB -6.5 · HIT
W12	NE @ CIN	NE -4.5	NE -7.5	37%	-6 (CIN 20 - NE 26)	NE · HIT	CIN +7.5 · HIT
W12	NYG @ DET	DET -14.5	DET -14	86%	+7 (DET 34 - NYG 27)	DET · HIT	DET -14 · miss
W12	NYJ @ BAL	BAL -11	BAL -14	80%	+13 (BAL 23 - NYJ 10)	BAL · HIT	NYJ +14 · HIT
W12	PHI @ DAL	PHI -4.5	PHI -3	37%	+3 (DAL 24 - PHI 21)	PHI · miss	PHI -3 · miss
W12	PIT @ CHI	CHI -5	CHI -3	65%	+3 (CHI 31 - PIT 28)	CHI · HIT	CHI -3 · push
W12	SEA @ TEN	SEA -9	SEA -12.5	24%	-6 (TEN 24 - SEA 30)	SEA · HIT	TEN +12.5 · HIT
W12	TB @ LA	LA -3.5	LA -7	61%	+27 (LA 34 - TB 7)	LA · HIT	TB +7 · miss
W12	CAR @ SF	SF -5.5	SF -7.5	67%	+11 (SF 20 - CAR 9)	SF · HIT	CAR +7.5 · miss
W13	CIN @ BAL	BAL -10.5	BAL -7	79%	-18 (BAL 14 - CIN 32)	BAL · miss	BAL -7 · miss
W13	GB @ DET	DET -4	DET -2.5	62%	-7 (DET 24 - GB 31)	DET · miss	DET -2.5 · miss
W13	KC @ DAL	KC -3	KC -3.5	40%	+3 (DAL 31 - KC 28)	KC · miss	DAL +3.5 · HIT
W13	CHI @ PHI	PHI -7	PHI -7	71%	-9 (PHI 15 - CHI 24)	PHI · miss	PHI -7 · miss
W13	ARI @ TB	TB -7.5	TB -4.5	71%	+3 (TB 20 - ARI 17)	TB · HIT	TB -4.5 · miss
W13	ATL @ NYJ	pick'em	ATL -3	51%	+3 (NYJ 27 - ATL 24)	NYJ · HIT	NYJ +3 · HIT
W13	BUF @ PIT	BUF -3.5	BUF -3	39%	-19 (PIT 7 - BUF 26)	BUF · HIT	BUF -3 · HIT
W13	DEN @ WAS	DEN -4.5	DEN -6.5	36%	-1 (WAS 26 - DEN 27)	DEN · HIT	WAS +6.5 · HIT
W13	HOU @ IND	IND -3.5	IND -3	61%	-4 (IND 16 - HOU 20)	IND · miss	IND -3 · miss
W13	JAX @ TEN	JAX -4.5	JAX -6	36%	-22 (TEN 3 - JAX 25)	JAX · HIT	TEN +6 · miss
W13	LA @ CAR	LA -6.5	LA -10	30%	+3 (CAR 31 - LA 28)	LA · miss	CAR +10 · HIT
W13	LV @ LAC	LAC -11.5	LAC -10	82%	+17 (LAC 31 - LV 14)	LAC · HIT	LAC -10 · HIT
W13	MIN @ SEA	SEA -10	SEA -12.5	79%	+26 (SEA 26 - MIN 0)	SEA · HIT	MIN +12.5 · miss
W13	NO @ MIA	MIA -11	MIA -5.5	80%	+4 (MIA 21 - NO 17)	MIA · HIT	MIA -5.5 · miss
W13	SF @ CLE	SF -4.5	SF -5.5	36%	-18 (CLE 8 - SF 26)	SF · HIT	CLE +5.5 · miss
W13	NYG @ NE	NE -8.5	NE -7	74%	+18 (NE 33 - NYG 15)	NE · HIT	NE -7 · HIT
W14	DAL @ DET	DET -8	DET -3.5	73%	+14 (DET 44 - DAL 30)	DET · HIT	DET -3.5 · HIT
W14	CHI @ GB	GB -7.5	GB -6.5	72%	+7 (GB 28 - CHI 21)	GB · HIT	GB -6.5 · HIT
W14	CIN @ BUF	BUF -9.5	BUF -6	77%	+5 (BUF 39 - CIN 34)	BUF · HIT	BUF -6 · miss
W14	DEN @ LV	DEN -8.5	DEN -8.5	25%	-7 (LV 17 - DEN 24)	DEN · HIT	DEN -8.5 · miss
W14	HOU @ KC	KC -6	KC -4.5	68%	-10 (KC 10 - HOU 20)	KC · miss	KC -4.5 · miss
W14	IND @ JAX	IND -1	IND -2.5	47%	+17 (JAX 36 - IND 19)	IND · miss	JAX +2.5 · HIT
W14	LA @ ARI	LA -6.5	LA -9.5	31%	-28 (ARI 17 - LA 45)	LA · HIT	ARI +9.5 · miss
W14	MIA @ NYJ	MIA -3	MIA -2.5	40%	-24 (NYJ 10 - MIA 34)	MIA · HIT	MIA -2.5 · HIT
W14	NO @ TB	TB -11.5	TB -7.5	81%	-4 (TB 20 - NO 24)	TB · miss	TB -7.5 · miss
W14	PIT @ BAL	BAL -7.5	BAL -5.5	72%	-5 (BAL 22 - PIT 27)	BAL · miss	BAL -5.5 · miss
W14	SEA @ ATL	SEA -5.5	SEA -7	33%	-28 (ATL 9 - SEA 37)	SEA · HIT	ATL +7 · miss
W14	TEN @ CLE	CLE -2	CLE -4.5	56%	-2 (CLE 29 - TEN 31)	CLE · miss	TEN +4.5 · HIT
W14	WAS @ MIN	MIN -0.5	WAS -1.5	51%	+31 (MIN 31 - WAS 0)	MIN · HIT	MIN +1.5 · HIT
W14	PHI @ LAC	pick'em	PHI -1.5	50%	+3 (LAC 22 - PHI 19)	LAC · HIT	LAC +1.5 · HIT
W15	ATL @ TB	TB -8	TB -6	74%	-1 (TB 28 - ATL 29)	TB · miss	TB -6 · miss
W15	ARI @ HOU	HOU -7.5	HOU -10.5	72%	+20 (HOU 40 - ARI 20)	HOU · HIT	ARI +10.5 · miss
W15	BAL @ CIN	BAL -3	BAL -2.5	41%	-24 (CIN 0 - BAL 24)	BAL · HIT	BAL -2.5 · HIT
W15	BUF @ NE	NE -0.5	BUF -2.5	51%	-4 (NE 31 - BUF 35)	NE · miss	NE +2.5 · miss
W15	CAR @ NO	CAR -3	CAR -2.5	40%	+3 (NO 20 - CAR 17)	CAR · miss	CAR -2.5 · miss
W15	CLE @ CHI	CHI -10	CHI -7.5	78%	+28 (CHI 31 - CLE 3)	CHI · HIT	CHI -7.5 · HIT
W15	DET @ LA	LA -2	LA -5.5	57%	+7 (LA 41 - DET 34)	LA · HIT	DET +5.5 · miss
W15	GB @ DEN	pick'em	GB -1.5	50%	+8 (DEN 34 - GB 26)	GB · miss	DEN +1.5 · HIT
W15	IND @ SEA	SEA -8.5	SEA -13.5	74%	+2 (SEA 18 - IND 16)	SEA · HIT	IND +13.5 · HIT
W15	LAC @ KC	KC -3.5	KC -5.5	61%	-3 (KC 13 - LAC 16)	KC · miss	LAC +5.5 · HIT
W15	LV @ PHI	PHI -14.5	PHI -12.5	87%	+31 (PHI 31 - LV 0)	PHI · HIT	PHI -12.5 · HIT
W15	MIN @ DAL	DAL -4.5	DAL -5.5	64%	-8 (DAL 26 - MIN 34)	DAL · miss	MIN +5.5 · HIT
W15	NYJ @ JAX	JAX -11.5	JAX -13.5	81%	+28 (JAX 48 - NYJ 20)	JAX · HIT	NYJ +13.5 · miss
W15	TEN @ SF	SF -11	SF -12.5	80%	+13 (SF 37 - TEN 24)	SF · HIT	TEN +12.5 · miss
W15	WAS @ NYG	NYG -2.5	NYG -2.5	57%	-8 (NYG 21 - WAS 29)	NYG · miss	WAS +2.5 · HIT
W15	MIA @ PIT	PIT -0.5	PIT -3	51%	+13 (PIT 28 - MIA 15)	PIT · HIT	MIA +3 · miss
W16	LA @ SEA	pick'em	SEA -1.5	50%	+1 (SEA 38 - LA 37)	SEA · HIT	LA +1.5 · HIT
W16	GB @ CHI	GB -1.5	CHI -1.5	46%	+6 (CHI 22 - GB 16)	GB · miss	GB +1.5 · miss
W16	PHI @ WAS	PHI -6	PHI -7	32%	-11 (WAS 18 - PHI 29)	PHI · HIT	WAS +7 · miss
W16	ATL @ ARI	ARI -2	ATL -2.5	56%	-7 (ARI 19 - ATL 26)	ARI · miss	ARI +2.5 · miss
W16	BUF @ CLE	BUF -10.5	BUF -10.5	21%	-3 (CLE 20 - BUF 23)	BUF · HIT	CLE +10.5 · HIT
W16	CIN @ MIA	MIA -3	CIN -3.5	60%	-24 (MIA 21 - CIN 45)	MIA · miss	MIA +3.5 · miss
W16	JAX @ DEN	DEN -3.5	DEN -3.5	61%	-14 (DEN 20 - JAX 34)	DEN · miss	DEN -3.5 · miss
W16	KC @ TEN	KC -3	KC -3.5	41%	+17 (TEN 26 - KC 9)	KC · miss	TEN +3.5 · HIT
W16	LAC @ DAL	LAC -0.5	DAL -1.5	49%	-17 (DAL 17 - LAC 34)	LAC · HIT	LAC +1.5 · HIT
W16	LV @ HOU	HOU -12.5	HOU -14.5	83%	+2 (HOU 23 - LV 21)	HOU · HIT	LV +14.5 · HIT
W16	MIN @ NYG	MIN -1.5	MIN -2.5	46%	-3 (NYG 13 - MIN 16)	MIN · HIT	NYG +2.5 · miss
W16	NE @ BAL	BAL -4.5	BAL -3.5	63%	-4 (BAL 24 - NE 28)	BAL · miss	BAL -3.5 · miss
W16	NYJ @ NO	NO -4	NO -6.5	62%	+23 (NO 29 - NYJ 6)	NO · HIT	NYJ +6.5 · miss
W16	PIT @ DET	DET -8	DET -7.5	73%	-5 (DET 24 - PIT 29)	DET · miss	DET -7.5 · miss
W16	TB @ CAR	TB -3	TB -3	41%	+3 (CAR 23 - TB 20)	TB · miss	CAR +3 · HIT
W16	SF @ IND	IND -1.5	SF -4.5	55%	-21 (IND 27 - SF 48)	IND · miss	IND +4.5 · miss
W17	DAL @ WAS	DAL -2.5	DAL -8.5	42%	-7 (WAS 23 - DAL 30)	DAL · HIT	WAS +8.5 · HIT
W17	DEN @ KC	DEN -3	DEN -13.5	41%	-7 (KC 13 - DEN 20)	DEN · HIT	KC +13.5 · HIT
W17	DET @ MIN	DET -6	DET -7	33%	+13 (MIN 23 - DET 10)	DET · miss	MIN +7 · HIT
W17	BAL @ GB	GB -3	GB -2.5	59%	-17 (GB 24 - BAL 41)	GB · miss	GB -2.5 · miss
W17	HOU @ LAC	LAC -3.5	LAC -1.5	61%	-4 (LAC 16 - HOU 20)	LAC · miss	LAC -1.5 · miss
W17	ARI @ CIN	CIN -3.5	CIN -7	60%	+23 (CIN 37 - ARI 14)	CIN · HIT	ARI +7 · miss
W17	CHI @ SF	SF -1.5	SF -3.5	55%	+4 (SF 42 - CHI 38)	SF · HIT	CHI +3.5 · miss
W17	JAX @ IND	JAX -2.5	JAX -3.5	42%	-6 (IND 17 - JAX 23)	JAX · HIT	IND +3.5 · miss
W17	NE @ NYJ	NE -7.5	NE -12.5	28%	-32 (NYJ 10 - NE 42)	NE · HIT	NYJ +12.5 · miss
W17	NO @ TEN	TEN -2.5	NO -1.5	58%	-8 (TEN 26 - NO 34)	TEN · miss	TEN +1.5 · miss
W17	NYG @ LV	LV -1	NYG -3	53%	-24 (LV 10 - NYG 34)	LV · miss	LV +3 · miss
W17	PHI @ BUF	BUF -2	BUF -3	56%	-1 (BUF 12 - PHI 13)	BUF · miss	PHI +3 · HIT
W17	PIT @ CLE	PIT -7	PIT -4.5	29%	+7 (CLE 13 - PIT 6)	PIT · miss	PIT -4.5 · miss
W17	SEA @ CAR	SEA -6.5	SEA -6.5	31%	-17 (CAR 10 - SEA 27)	SEA · HIT	CAR +6.5 · miss
W17	TB @ MIA	TB -3	TB -5.5	41%	+3 (MIA 20 - TB 17)	TB · miss	MIA +5.5 · HIT
W17	LA @ ATL	LA -9	LA -7.5	25%	+3 (ATL 27 - LA 24)	LA · miss	LA -7.5 · miss
W18	CAR @ TB	TB -5.5	TB -3	67%	+2 (TB 16 - CAR 14)	TB · HIT	TB -3 · miss
W18	SEA @ SF	SEA -2.5	SEA -2.5	42%	-10 (SF 3 - SEA 13)	SEA · HIT	SEA -2.5 · HIT
W18	ARI @ LA	LA -12.5	LA -14.5	83%	+17 (LA 37 - ARI 20)	LA · HIT	ARI +14.5 · miss
W18	BAL @ PIT	BAL -1.5	BAL -4.5	45%	+2 (PIT 26 - BAL 24)	BAL · miss	PIT +4.5 · HIT
W18	CLE @ CIN	CIN -7.5	CIN -9.5	71%	-2 (CIN 18 - CLE 20)	CIN · miss	CLE +9.5 · HIT
W18	DAL @ NYG	DAL -1.5	DAL -3	46%	+17 (NYG 34 - DAL 17)	DAL · miss	NYG +3 · HIT
W18	DET @ CHI	CHI -0.5	CHI -3.5	51%	-3 (CHI 16 - DET 19)	CHI · miss	DET +3.5 · HIT
W18	GB @ MIN	MIN -3	MIN -12.5	59%	+13 (MIN 16 - GB 3)	MIN · HIT	GB +12.5 · miss
W18	IND @ HOU	HOU -6.5	HOU -9.5	69%	+8 (HOU 38 - IND 30)	HOU · HIT	IND +9.5 · HIT
W18	KC @ LV	KC -7	KC -3.5	30%	+2 (LV 14 - KC 12)	KC · miss	KC -3.5 · miss
W18	LAC @ DEN	DEN -6.5	DEN -14.5	69%	+16 (DEN 19 - LAC 3)	DEN · HIT	LAC +14.5 · miss
W18	MIA @ NE	NE -9.5	NE -14	77%	+28 (NE 38 - MIA 10)	NE · HIT	MIA +14 · miss
W18	NO @ ATL	ATL -2.5	ATL -4.5	57%	+2 (ATL 19 - NO 17)	ATL · HIT	NO +4.5 · HIT
W18	NYJ @ BUF	BUF -12.5	BUF -12.5	83%	+27 (BUF 35 - NYJ 8)	BUF · HIT	BUF -12.5 · HIT
W18	TEN @ JAX	JAX -10	JAX -12.5	77%	+34 (JAX 41 - TEN 7)	JAX · HIT	TEN +12.5 · miss
W18	WAS @ PHI	PHI -8	PHI -3	73%	-7 (PHI 17 - WAS 24)	PHI · miss	PHI -3 · miss

Bayesian 101

The one idea behind everything here. A prediction is not a number, it is a range of belief. This model never says "the Chiefs will win by 2." It says "our best guess is Chiefs by 2, and here is exactly how sure we are." Bayesian modeling is the math of keeping honest track of that sureness: start with a reasonable belief, let each game's evidence pull it, and never claim more certainty than the evidence paid for.

Why every prediction says plus-or-minus 13. That 13 is measured, not assumed. Take every NFL game since 2010, compare the final margin to the best pre-game prediction anyone can make, and the typical miss is about 13 points. Vegas, with all its money and information, also misses by about 13. Football is decided by fumbles, tipped balls, and kickers, and no film study predicts those. The skill is not shrinking the 13; it is knowing your 13 honestly while the market prices as if it were smaller or larger.

Even the model's weights are probabilities. A normal model learns one number for how much each factor matters, say "quarterback continuity is worth 2.4 points," and treats it as gospel. This model refuses to commit: every learned weight is a bell curve, a most likely value plus honest error bars, because 16 seasons of noisy football cannot pin any of these numbers down exactly. To make a prediction it samples a full set of plausible weights, forming one plausible analyst, and repeats until it has a room of them. Where the room agrees, the data genuinely supports the call. Where the room scatters, the model is telling you it does not understand this game, and no bet should survive that.

The Kalman filter: the model's memory. Every team carries a rating, points better or worse than average on a neutral field, updated after every game by a Kalman filter, the same math that navigated Apollo to the moon. The filter's genius is knowing how far to move: a 20-point blowout by a team it already trusts barely moves the rating; the same blowout by a mystery team moves it a lot. Between seasons every rating shrinks 30% toward average and its uncertainty balloons, because offseasons erase certainty. Home field advantage is learned, not assumed, and converged to almost exactly 2 points.

How it all intertwines. The pipeline is a relay. The Kalman filter watches scores and maintains ratings with error bars. Those ratings, their uncertainty, and the stat sheet below become the inputs to the room of five neural networks, which learn the patterns and produce a margin and a per-game uncertainty. A calibration step then nudges that uncertainty against held-out seasons so the stated confidence matches reality. Finally the finished probability is compared to the market's price, minus fees, and only survivors of that comparison and a human news check appear as value on the This Week tab.

The stat sheet. What the model is actually fed, for every game, always computed only from games played before it:

Input	What it is
Kalman rating gap	Team strength difference, points on a neutral field
Rating uncertainty	How well the filter currently knows both teams
Scoring form	Recent point differential, recent games weighted more
EPA, passing and rushing, offense and defense	Expected Points Added per play: how much each play helped, given down, distance, and field position. Credits efficiency, not raw yards
CPOE	Completion Percentage Over Expected: does the QB complete throws harder than they look
QB continuity	Share of the last 16 games started by this week's listed starter. A backup shows up as a 0
Rest difference	Days off, home minus away
Division game	Rivals play closer games than ratings suggest
Roof	Indoor or outdoor stadium

Notably absent: yards per carry, yards after catch, and other yardage stats. EPA already contains what they measure, with the context they lack, so adding them would add noise, not knowledge. Also deliberately absent: betting lines. A model fed the market's answer can only agree with the market; this one has to form its own opinion so the two can genuinely disagree.

From margin to money. A predicted margin plus its uncertainty gives the chance of any outcome: the chance the margin beats zero is the moneyline, the chance it beats the spread is the cover probability. A market price is also a probability, since 65 cents means 65%. Value exists only when the model's number and the price disagree by more than the fees, in a game where the room agrees. Most weeks that is a short list. That is the design working, not failing.

What this model honestly cannot see. Injuries announced this week, coaches resting starters, weather. Every green badge gets a human news check before anything happens. When the market disagrees with the model, the market is usually right; this system exists to find the exceptions and to know the difference.

MLB Model HQ

A Bayesian run-differential model · generated 2026-09-15

Run health: all hard checks passed; 1 warning: kalshi-snapshot alive
run 2026-09-15 07:11 UTC · slate 2026-09-15 · games priced 15/15 · prices 15/15 fresh · weather 15/15 · starters 14/15

every check

schedule refreshed: 2026.json.gz 2 min old
schedule has today: 15 games today, 15 still to play
games.csv complete for today: 15/15 present
yesterday settled in games.csv: 10/10 finals carry scores
yesterday settled in log: 0 logged games still without a result
rundown ran this run: latest row 0 min old
every upcoming game priced: 15/15
moneyline probabilities finite: 15/15
totals priced: 15/15
weather at every open-roof game: 15/15 have a temperature or a closed roof
Kalshi prices present: 15/15 games have a moneyline price
Kalshi prices fresh: 15/15 priced games under 20 min
probable pitchers known: 14/15 games have both starters
kalshi-snapshot alive: last snapshot 230 min ago
totals config matches code: feature_cols in sync
moneyline config matches code: feature_cols in sync

Today's Slate

Green bar: the Bayesian Model's chance the home team wins. Faded green: the same after a human narrative tilt, when one was entered. White bar: what the market charges for that outcome. Badges: green means real value after fees, yellow means an edge too small to trust, red means the price is fair or worse. Each card also grades the run line. Every green light still gets a human news check first.

PHI @ WSH2026-09-15

HIGH VALUE — WSH

Bayesian Model: PHI by 0.8 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: PHI by 0.8 · PHI ML -135

Cristopher Sánchez vs Jackson Kent

Bayesian model

42%

Market price

35¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +8 points of probability toward WSH · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 9.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 9.0 runs · 74°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 59% (market 56%) · Under 8.5: 51% (market 53%) · Under 9.5: 60% (market 63%)

Why · run line

For value: the model still expects PHI to win, but the market charges too much for PHI. The value play is WSH: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Run line: model has PHI -1.5 covering 43% of the time · fair price +131 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

DET @ TOR2026-09-15

HIGH VALUE — DET

Bayesian Model: DET by 0.3 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: DET by 0.3 · DET ML -114

Drew Anderson vs Braydon Fisher

Bayesian model

47%

Market price

56¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -9 points of probability against TOR · price fetched live

Total runs call: Under 8.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.5 runs · 70°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 55% (market 57%) · Under 8.5: 55% (market 52%) · Under 9.5: 64% (market 62%)

Why · run line

For value: the model and the market agree DET is the likely winner, but the model is more confident than the price implies. The value play is DET.

Run line: model has DET -1.5 covering 40% of the time · fair price +153 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

BOS @ TEX2026-09-15

CAUTIOUS — small edge on BOS

Bayesian Model: BOS by 0.6 runs ±4.9

Gambler terms: BOS by 0.6 · BOS ML -126

Patrick Sandoval vs nan · starter unlisted, range widened

Bayesian model

44%

Market price

49¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -5 points of probability against TEX · price fetched live

Total runs: model expects 8.3 · roof closed · Over 7.5: 53% · Under 8.5: 57% · Under 9.5: 65% · no price to compare yet

Why · run line

For value: the model and the market agree BOS is the likely winner, but the model is more confident than the price implies. The value play is BOS. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Run line: model has BOS -1.5 covering 43% of the time · fair price +133 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

ATH @ TB2026-09-15

CAUTIOUS — small edge on ATH

Bayesian Model: TB by 1.5 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: TB by 1.5 · TB ML -184

Jack Perkins vs Griffin Jax

Bayesian model

65%

Market price

68¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -3 points of probability against TB · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 7.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.6 runs · roof closed

Over 7.5: 55% (market 54%) · Under 8.5: 54% (market 54%) · Under 9.5: 63% (market 64%)

Why · run line

For value: the model still expects TB to win, but the market charges too much for TB. The value play is ATH: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Run line: model has TB -1.5 covering 50% of the time · fair price -100 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

SF @ STL2026-09-15

HIGH VALUE — SF

Bayesian Model: STL by 0.2 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: STL by 0.2 · STL ML -110

Blade Tidwell vs Andre Pallante

Bayesian model

52%

Market price

60¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -8 points of probability against STL · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 9.5 · edge +4.6% after fees · model expects 9.5 runs · 87°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 63% (market 57%) · Over 8.5: 54% (market 49%) · Under 9.5: 55% (market 61%)

Why · run line

For value: the model still expects STL to win, but the market charges too much for STL. The value play is SF: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Run line: model has STL -1.5 covering 39% of the time · fair price +158 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

MIL @ PIT2026-09-15

HIGH VALUE — PIT

Bayesian Model: MIL by 1.0 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: MIL by 1.0 · MIL ML -149

Jacob Misiorowski vs Lake Bachar

Bayesian model

40%

Market price

31¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +9 points of probability toward PIT · price fetched live

Total runs call: Under 8.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.1 runs · 76°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 51% (market 51%) · Under 8.5: 59% (market 57%) · Under 9.5: 67% (market 67%)

Why · run line

For value: the model still expects MIL to win, but the market charges too much for MIL. The value play is PIT: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Run line: model has MIL -1.5 covering 45% of the time · fair price +120 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

BAL @ NYM2026-09-15

CAUTIOUS — small edge on BAL

Bayesian Model: BAL by 0.1 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: BAL by 0.1 · BAL ML -106

Shane Baz vs Sean Manaea

Bayesian model

48%

Market price

55¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -7 points of probability against NYM · price fetched live

Total runs call: Under 8.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.4 runs · 66°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 54% (market 55%) · Under 8.5: 56% (market 54%) · Under 9.5: 65% (market 64%)

Why · run line

For value: the model and the market agree BAL is the likely winner, but the model is more confident than the price implies. The value play is BAL. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Run line: model has BAL -1.5 covering 38% of the time · fair price +163 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

NYY @ MIN2026-09-15

NO VALUE at current price

Bayesian Model: NYY by 1.1 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: NYY by 1.1 · NYY ML -155

Max Fried vs Bailey Ober

Bayesian model

39%

Market price

38¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +1 points of probability toward MIN · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 9.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.6 runs · 65°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 55% (market 54%) · Under 8.5: 54% (market 55%) · Under 9.5: 63% (market 65%)

Why · run line

The model and the market see this game the same way: NYY likely wins, and the price already says so. Fair price, no bet.

Run line: model has NYY -1.5 covering 46% of the time · fair price +116 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

SEA @ LAA2026-09-15

HIGH VALUE — LAA

Bayesian Model: LAA by 0.0 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: pick'em · LAA ML -100

Logan Gilbert vs Ryan Johnson

Bayesian model

50%

Market price

40¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +10 points of probability toward LAA · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 7.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.9 runs · 72°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 58% (market 55%) · Under 8.5: 51% (market 53%) · Under 9.5: 60% (market 62%)

Why · run line

For value: the model calls an upset. It makes LAA the favorite while the market does not, so LAA comes cheap if the model is right.

Run line: model has LAA -1.5 covering 37% of the time · fair price +172 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

KC @ HOU2026-09-15

HIGH VALUE — KC

Bayesian Model: KC by 0.1 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: KC by 0.1 · KC ML -102

Michael Wacha vs Hunter Brown

Bayesian model

49%

Market price

61¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -12 points of probability against HOU · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 7.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.8 runs · roof closed

Over 7.5: 57% (market 53%) · Under 8.5: 53% (market 55%) · Under 9.5: 62% (market 65%)

Why · run line

For value: the model and the market agree KC is the likely winner, but the model is more confident than the price implies. The value play is KC.

Run line: model has KC -1.5 covering 37% of the time · fair price +168 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

SD @ COL2026-09-15

CAUTIOUS — small edge on COL

Bayesian Model: SD by 1.0 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: SD by 1.0 · SD ML -151

Walker Buehler vs Kyle Freeland

Bayesian model

40%

Market price

37¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +3 points of probability toward COL · price fetched live

Total runs call: Under 8.5 · edge +7.7% after fees · model expects 11.0 runs · 74°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 73% (market 79%) · Over 8.5: 65% (market 74%) · Over 9.5: 57% (market 65%)

Why · run line

For value: the model still expects SD to win, but the market charges too much for SD. The value play is COL: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Run line: model has SD -1.5 covering 46% of the time · fair price +119 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

CWS @ CLE2026-09-15

NO VALUE at current price

Bayesian Model: CLE by 0.4 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: CLE by 0.4 · CLE ML -118

Davis Martin vs Foster Griffin

Bayesian model

54%

Market price

55¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -1 points of probability against CLE · price fetched live

Total runs call: Under 8.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.8 runs · 81°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 57% (market 58%) · Under 8.5: 52% (market 50%) · Under 9.5: 61% (market 61%)

Why · run line

The model leans CLE while the market leans CWS, but not by enough to beat the price after fees. No bet.

Run line: model has CLE -1.5 covering 40% of the time · fair price +148 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

LAD @ CIN2026-09-15

CAUTIOUS — small edge on CIN

Bayesian Model: LAD by 1.6 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: LAD by 1.6 · LAD ML -189

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Rhett Lowder

Bayesian model

35%

Market price

32¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +3 points of probability toward CIN · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 9.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 9.7 runs · 91°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 64% (market 59%) · Over 8.5: 55% (market 51%) · Under 9.5: 54% (market 59%)

Why · run line

For value: the model still expects LAD to win, but the market charges too much for LAD. The value play is CIN: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner. The edge is small, so treat this one lightly.

Run line: model has LAD -1.5 covering 51% of the time · fair price -103 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

ATL @ CHC2026-09-15

NO VALUE at current price

Bayesian Model: CHC by 0.8 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: CHC by 0.8 · CHC ML -138

Martín Pérez vs Kevin Gausman

Bayesian model

58%

Market price

57¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: +1 points of probability toward CHC · price fetched live

Total runs call: Under 8.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 8.9 runs · 74°F at first pitch

Over 7.5: 58% (market 59%) · Under 8.5: 52% (market 49%) · Under 9.5: 60% (market 60%)

Why · run line

The model leans CHC while the market leans ATL, but not by enough to beat the price after fees. No bet.

Run line: model has CHC -1.5 covering 44% of the time · fair price +128 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

MIA @ AZ2026-09-15

HIGH VALUE — MIA

Bayesian Model: AZ by 0.0 runs ±4.4

Gambler terms: pick'em · AZ ML -100

Janson Junk vs Michael Soroka

Bayesian model

50%

Market price

58¢

Both bars: chance the home team wins. Disagreement: -8 points of probability against AZ · price fetched live

Total runs call: Over 9.5 · no edge at the current price · model expects 9.5 runs · roof closed

Over 7.5: 63% (market 59%) · Over 8.5: 54% (market 51%) · Under 9.5: 55% (market 60%)

Why · run line

For value: the model still expects AZ to win, but the market charges too much for AZ. The value play is MIA: buying the underpriced side, not picking the winner.

Run line: model has AZ -1.5 covering 37% of the time · fair price +172 · not backtested as a bet (season record: 40-44% covers vs. the market) -- reference only

Parlay Lab

Combinations of moneylines (at logged Kalshi prices, fees included) and run lines. Pick your risk appetite: Safe caps the payout near +120 and ranks by hit chance; these are legs where the model and the market mostly agree, so expect them to land often but carry little or no edge. Balanced and Longshot rank by the model's expected profit, which is where real disagreements live. Moonshot is the lottery tier, including legs where the model disagrees with the market by an amount too large to fully trust, since a gap that big usually means the model is missing news rather than the market giving money away. Read each row as: the model says this combo hits X%, the market's prices imply Y%, and the last column is the average result of a $10 bet across many tries. Legs are independent games only, and parlays multiply the house's cut along with the thrill.

Legs	Model chance	Market implied chance	Payout	Avg profit per $10 bet, win or lose
TB ML, LAD ML	42%	48%	+107	-$1.23
MIL ML, LAD ML	39%	49%	+104	-$2.02
TB ML, MIL ML	39%	49%	+104	-$2.09
PHI ML, LAD ML	38%	46%	+116	-$1.88
PHI ML, TB ML	37%	46%	+116	-$1.95
MIL ML, SD ML	36%	46%	+119	-$2.11
PHI ML, MIL ML	34%	47%	+113	-$2.68
NYY ML, KC ML	31%	26%	+286	+$1.89
KC ML, LAD ML	33%	28%	+254	+$1.71
TB ML, KC ML	33%	28%	+254	+$1.60
KC ML, SD ML	30%	26%	+280	+$1.57
DET ML, CHC ML	31%	27%	+272	+$1.49
NYY ML, LAA ML	30%	27%	+277	+$1.46
LAA ML, LAD ML	33%	29%	+245	+$1.28
TB ML, LAA ML	32%	29%	+245	+$1.18
LAA ML, SD ML	30%	27%	+271	+$1.16
DET ML, NYY ML	32%	29%	+244	+$1.11
DET ML, BOS ML, KC ML	15%	10%	+920	+$5.31
LAA ML, KC ML	25%	17%	+490	+$4.93
DET ML, BOS ML, LAA ML	15%	10%	+895	+$4.76
LAA ML, KC ML, CHC ML	15%	10%	+905	+$4.74
BOS ML, BAL ML, KC ML	15%	10%	+898	+$4.51
DET ML, KC ML	27%	19%	+438	+$4.48
DET ML, KC ML, CHC ML	16%	11%	+816	+$4.30
NYY ML, LAA ML, KC ML	15%	11%	+827	+$4.26
LAA ML, KC ML, CLE ML	14%	10%	+940	+$4.23
LAA ML, KC ML, LAD ML	17%	12%	+749	+$4.04
DET ML, LAA ML, KC ML	13%	8%	+1190	+$7.37
BAL ML, LAA ML, KC ML	13%	8%	+1162	+$6.45
DET ML, BAL ML, KC ML	14%	9%	+1051	+$5.95
BOS ML, LAA ML, KC ML	14%	9%	+1018	+$5.79
DET ML, BAL ML, LAA ML	14%	9%	+1023	+$5.38
LAA ML, KC ML, LAD -1.5	13%	9%	+1003	+$4.18
TB -1.5, LAA ML, KC ML	13%	9%	+1003	+$3.98
NYY -1.5, LAA ML, KC ML	12%	9%	+1003	+$2.92
LAA ML, KC ML, SD -1.5	12%	9%	+1003	+$2.76
MIL -1.5, LAA ML, KC ML	11%	9%	+1003	+$2.67

Live Bet Performance

Every game the model flagged HIGH VALUE, staked at a flat $15 and settled against the real final score, updated automatically every morning by the same run that prices tomorrow's slate. This is a record of what following the site would have earned, not the walk-forward backtest below — it started 2026-08-27 and is still a small sample. Treat the win rate honestly and the dollar figure as a rough slippage estimate until this has run for a full season.

56bets settled

19-37record

$-188.44P&L on $840 staked

-22.4%ROI

Date	Market	Pick	Price	Edge	Result	P&L	Running total
2026-09-02	ML	CWS	44¢	+5.4%	lost	$-15.00	+$62.73
2026-09-03	ML	SF	40¢	+4.8%	lost	$-15.00	+$47.73
2026-09-03	ML	CWS	41¢	+11.4%	lost	$-15.00	+$32.73
2026-09-03	ML	ATH	34¢	+4.2%	WON	+$27.17	+$59.90
2026-09-03	ML	STL	27¢	+9.5%	lost	$-15.00	+$44.90
2026-09-03	ML	MIA	49¢	+4.4%	lost	$-15.00	+$29.90
2026-09-04	ML	TB	49¢	+7.7%	WON	+$14.56	+$44.46
2026-09-04	ML	LAA	37¢	+8.1%	lost	$-15.00	+$29.46
2026-09-04	ML	SF	36¢	+10.2%	lost	$-15.00	+$14.46
2026-09-04	ML	WSH	28¢	+12.5%	lost	$-15.00	$-0.54
2026-09-04	ML	AZ	46¢	+6.3%	lost	$-15.00	$-15.54
2026-09-05	ML	TB	50¢	+7.1%	WON	+$13.99	$-1.55
2026-09-05	ML	NYY	46¢	+5.8%	WON	+$16.42	+$14.87
2026-09-05	ML	ATL	41¢	+4.1%	lost	$-15.00	$-0.13
2026-09-05	ML	SF	40¢	+5.5%	WON	+$20.99	+$20.86
2026-09-05	ML	WSH	34¢	+8.1%	lost	$-15.00	+$5.86
2026-09-06	ML	TB	50¢	+5.7%	lost	$-15.00	$-9.14
2026-09-06	ML	SF	40¢	+7.9%	lost	$-15.00	$-24.14
2026-09-06	ML	WSH	36¢	+4.6%	lost	$-15.00	$-39.14
2026-09-06	ML	DET	40¢	+6.1%	lost	$-15.00	$-54.14
2026-09-07	ML	WSH	36¢	+4.3%	lost	$-15.00	$-69.14
2026-09-08	ML	WSH	38¢	+8.5%	lost	$-15.00	$-84.14
2026-09-08	ML	COL	25¢	+7.5%	lost	$-15.00	$-99.14
2026-09-08	ML	CHC	35¢	+8.0%	lost	$-15.00	$-114.14
2026-09-08	ML	CIN	27¢	+5.3%	lost	$-15.00	$-129.14
2026-09-08	ML	PIT	44¢	+5.0%	WON	+$17.80	$-111.34
2026-09-09	ML	TEX	42¢	+7.3%	lost	$-15.00	$-126.34
2026-09-09	ML	WSH	38¢	+6.6%	lost	$-15.00	$-141.34
2026-09-09	ML	CIN	28¢	+7.1%	lost	$-15.00	$-156.34
2026-09-09	ML	PIT	46¢	+6.3%	WON	+$16.42	$-139.92
2026-09-10	ML	TB	47¢	+4.0%	lost	$-15.00	$-154.92
2026-09-11	ML	HOU	38¢	+4.5%	lost	$-15.00	$-169.92
2026-09-11	ML	MIA	36¢	+6.2%	lost	$-15.00	$-184.92
2026-09-11	ML	PHI	38¢	+4.6%	lost	$-15.00	$-199.92
2026-09-12	ML	SF	38¢	+7.0%	lost	$-15.00	$-214.92
2026-09-12	ML	PHI	44¢	+5.3%	lost	$-15.00	$-229.92
2026-09-13	ML	BAL	42¢	+4.3%	lost	$-15.00	$-244.92
2026-09-14	ML	CWS	41¢	+6.6%	WON	+$20.13	$-224.79
2026-09-14	ML	DET	44¢	+7.2%	WON	+$17.80	$-206.99
2026-09-14	ML	BAL	43¢	+4.5%	WON	+$18.55	$-188.44

Track Record

Everything on this tab is stated from the home team's perspective. Every prediction below was made by the Bayesian Model before it had seen the game: it refits weekly on games already played, exactly as it runs live. Two report cards: "winner pick" is the model picking the game outright, and "run-line pick" is its side at the standard ±1.5. Baseball is close to a coin flip most nights, so a winner percentage in the mid-fifties is a real edge, not a weak one.

Season	Games	Model picks winner	Model on the run line	Avg miss (runs)
2023	2430	57.2%	43.8%	3.40
2024	2429	56.9%	42.2%	3.40
2025	2430	55.8%	40.1%	3.50

Honesty check. Take all the games where the model gave the home team a certain range of winning chances, then check how often the home team really won. A single game cannot test a probability; only a pile of games can. When the last two columns roughly match in every row, the model's stated confidence is honest.

Games grouped by prediction	Games	The group's predictions averaged	Home teams actually won
0-35%	298	32%	34%
35-45%	1568	41%	46%
45-55%	3198	50%	52%
55-65%	1851	59%	60%
65-100%	374	68%	70%

2023 season — last 150 games

Showing the last 150 games of 2430. The season percentages above are computed over all 2430; only this listing is truncated, to keep the page loadable on a phone.

Date	Game	Bayesian Model line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home first)	Winner pick	Run-line pick
2023-09-20	CLE @ KC	CLE by 0.7	43%	+4 (KC 6 - CLE 2)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2023-09-20	MIN @ CIN	MIN by 0.7	43%	-2 (CIN 3 - MIN 5)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-20	BOS @ TEX	TEX by 0.5	55%	+10 (TEX 15 - BOS 5)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-20	BAL @ HOU	BAL by 0.1	49%	+1 (HOU 2 - BAL 1)	BAL · miss	BAL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-20	PHI @ ATL	ATL by 0.4	54%	-1 (ATL 5 - PHI 6)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-20	CWS @ WSH	WSH by 0.6	56%	+10 (WSH 13 - CWS 3)	WSH · HIT	WSH -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-21	SF @ LAD	LAD by 1.7	66%	+5 (LAD 7 - SF 2)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-21	DET @ ATH	DET by 1.7	33%	-4 (ATH 3 - DET 7)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-21	BAL @ CLE	BAL by 0.9	41%	+3 (CLE 5 - BAL 2)	BAL · miss	BAL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-21	NYM @ PHI	PHI by 0.6	56%	+1 (PHI 5 - NYM 4)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · miss
2023-09-21	MIL @ STL	MIL by 0.6	44%	-6 (STL 0 - MIL 6)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-21	TOR @ NYY	TOR by 0.2	48%	+2 (NYY 5 - TOR 3)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2023-09-21	PIT @ CHC	CHC by 1.3	63%	-2 (CHC 6 - PIT 8)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2023-09-21	ATL @ WSH	ATL by 1.7	33%	-7 (WSH 3 - ATL 10)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-21	LAA @ TB	TB by 2.0	70%	+1 (TB 5 - LAA 4)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	DET @ ATH	DET by 1.4	36%	+6 (ATH 8 - DET 2)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	KC @ HOU	HOU by 1.7	66%	-2 (HOU 5 - KC 7)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	SF @ LAD	LAD by 2.0	69%	-4 (LAD 1 - SF 5)	LAD · miss	LAD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	LAA @ MIN	MIN by 1.4	64%	+2 (MIN 8 - LAA 6)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-22	STL @ SD	SD by 0.9	59%	+2 (SD 4 - STL 2)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-22	SEA @ TEX	SEA by 0.3	47%	+3 (TEX 8 - SEA 5)	SEA · miss	SEA -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	CWS @ BOS	BOS by 1.6	66%	+1 (BOS 3 - CWS 2)	BOS · HIT	BOS -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	TOR @ TB	TB by 0.9	59%	-4 (TB 2 - TOR 6)	TB · miss	TB -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	AZ @ NYY	NYY by 0.1	51%	+6 (NYY 7 - AZ 1)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-22	NYM @ PHI	PHI by 0.6	56%	+1 (PHI 5 - NYM 4)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	MIL @ MIA	MIL by 0.8	42%	-15 (MIA 1 - MIL 16)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-22	BAL @ CLE	BAL by 0.3	47%	+1 (CLE 9 - BAL 8)	BAL · miss	BAL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-22	ATL @ WSH	ATL by 1.8	33%	-3 (WSH 6 - ATL 9)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-22	COL @ CHC	CHC by 1.4	64%	+6 (CHC 6 - COL 0)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-22	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.6	56%	-2 (CIN 5 - PIT 7)	CIN · miss	CIN -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	KC @ HOU	HOU by 1.7	66%	-1 (HOU 2 - KC 3)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	SF @ LAD	LAD by 1.4	64%	+7 (LAD 7 - SF 0)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-23	STL @ SD	SD by 0.9	59%	-3 (SD 2 - STL 5)	SD · miss	SD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	MIL @ MIA	MIL by 1.4	37%	+1 (MIA 5 - MIL 4)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	SEA @ TEX	SEA by 0.1	49%	+2 (TEX 2 - SEA 0)	SEA · miss	SEA -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.5	55%	-1 (CIN 12 - PIT 13)	CIN · miss	CIN -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	TOR @ TB	TB by 0.9	59%	+1 (TB 7 - TOR 6)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	BAL @ CLE	BAL by 0.4	46%	-1 (CLE 1 - BAL 2)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	LAA @ MIN	MIN by 1.4	64%	-1 (MIN 0 - LAA 1)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	NYM @ PHI	PHI by 0.7	57%	+2 (PHI 7 - NYM 5)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-23	CWS @ BOS	BOS by 1.4	64%	-1 (BOS 0 - CWS 1)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2023-09-23	COL @ CHC	CHC by 1.4	64%	+3 (CHC 6 - COL 3)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-23	DET @ ATH	DET by 1.0	40%	+3 (ATH 4 - DET 1)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	SF @ LAD	LAD by 1.2	62%	+1 (LAD 3 - SF 2)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	DET @ ATH	DET by 1.1	39%	-2 (ATH 0 - DET 2)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-24	STL @ SD	SD by 0.9	59%	+10 (SD 12 - STL 2)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-24	LAA @ MIN	MIN by 1.2	62%	+6 (MIN 9 - LAA 3)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-24	SEA @ TEX	SEA by 0.3	47%	+1 (TEX 9 - SEA 8)	SEA · miss	SEA -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	MIL @ MIA	MIL by 1.3	37%	+5 (MIA 6 - MIL 1)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	KC @ HOU	HOU by 1.6	65%	-1 (HOU 5 - KC 6)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	COL @ CHC	CHC by 1.4	63%	+1 (CHC 4 - COL 3)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	BAL @ CLE	CLE by 0.1	51%	-4 (CLE 1 - BAL 5)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.6	56%	+2 (CIN 4 - PIT 2)	CIN · HIT	CIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-24	TOR @ TB	TB by 0.5	55%	-4 (TB 5 - TOR 9)	TB · miss	TB -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	CWS @ BOS	BOS by 1.1	61%	-1 (BOS 2 - CWS 3)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	NYM @ PHI	PHI by 0.7	57%	+3 (PHI 5 - NYM 2)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-24	AZ @ NYY	NYY by 0.5	55%	-6 (NYY 1 - AZ 7)	NYY · miss	NYY -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	ATL @ WSH	ATL by 1.6	34%	+1 (WSH 3 - ATL 2)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-24	ATL @ WSH	ATL by 2.0	31%	-3 (WSH 5 - ATL 8)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-25	HOU @ SEA	HOU by 0.3	47%	-4 (SEA 1 - HOU 5)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-25	TEX @ LAA	TEX by 0.9	41%	-4 (LAA 1 - TEX 5)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-25	SD @ SF	SD by 0.1	49%	+1 (SF 2 - SD 1)	SD · miss	SD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-25	AZ @ NYY	NYY by 0.4	54%	+2 (NYY 6 - AZ 4)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-26	ATH @ MIN	MIN by 2.1	70%	+8 (MIN 11 - ATH 3)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-26	TEX @ LAA	TEX by 1.0	40%	+6 (LAA 9 - TEX 3)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	STL @ MIL	MIL by 1.2	62%	-3 (MIL 1 - STL 4)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	HOU @ SEA	SEA by 0.2	52%	+4 (SEA 6 - HOU 2)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-26	AZ @ CWS	AZ by 0.8	42%	-11 (CWS 4 - AZ 15)	AZ · HIT	AZ -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-26	TB @ BOS	TB by 1.2	38%	-2 (BOS 7 - TB 9)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-26	CHC @ ATL	ATL by 0.1	51%	+1 (ATL 7 - CHC 6)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	NYY @ TOR	TOR by 0.4	54%	-2 (TOR 0 - NYY 2)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	PIT @ PHI	PHI by 1.3	63%	+1 (PHI 3 - PIT 2)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	KC @ DET	DET by 0.6	56%	+3 (DET 6 - KC 3)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-26	WSH @ BAL	BAL by 1.9	68%	+1 (BAL 1 - WSH 0)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	CIN @ CLE	CLE by 0.3	53%	-4 (CLE 7 - CIN 11)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	SD @ SF	SD by 0.4	46%	-4 (SF 0 - SD 4)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-26	LAD @ COL	LAD by 2.9	23%	+3 (COL 4 - LAD 1)	LAD · miss	LAD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-26	LAD @ COL	LAD by 2.4	27%	-9 (COL 2 - LAD 11)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	LAD @ COL	LAD by 2.3	28%	-6 (COL 2 - LAD 8)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	HOU @ SEA	HOU by 0.2	48%	-5 (SEA 3 - HOU 8)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	STL @ MIL	MIL by 1.2	62%	+1 (MIL 3 - STL 2)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-27	ATH @ MIN	MIN by 2.2	71%	+2 (MIN 6 - ATH 4)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	MIA @ NYM	NYM by 0.2	52%	+9 (NYM 11 - MIA 2)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	CHC @ ATL	ATL by 0.5	55%	+1 (ATL 6 - CHC 5)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-27	NYY @ TOR	TOR by 0.4	54%	-6 (TOR 0 - NYY 6)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2023-09-27	PIT @ PHI	PHI by 1.4	63%	+1 (PHI 7 - PIT 6)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · miss
2023-09-27	WSH @ BAL	BAL by 2.1	70%	+4 (BAL 5 - WSH 1)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	AZ @ CWS	AZ by 1.3	37%	-3 (CWS 0 - AZ 3)	AZ · HIT	AZ -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	CIN @ CLE	CLE by 0.6	56%	+1 (CLE 4 - CIN 3)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · miss
2023-09-27	TB @ BOS	TB by 1.2	38%	-5 (BOS 0 - TB 5)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	TEX @ LAA	TEX by 0.9	41%	-5 (LAA 0 - TEX 5)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	SD @ SF	SD by 0.5	45%	-3 (SF 2 - SD 5)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-27	MIA @ NYM	NYM by 0.5	56%	-2 (NYM 2 - MIA 4)	NYM · miss	NYM -1.5 · miss
2023-09-28	STL @ MIL	MIL by 1.5	65%	+3 (MIL 3 - STL 0)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-28	TEX @ SEA	SEA by 0.2	52%	+1 (SEA 3 - TEX 2)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · miss
2023-09-28	CHC @ ATL	ATL by 0.6	56%	+2 (ATL 5 - CHC 3)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-28	ATH @ MIN	MIN by 2.4	73%	-1 (MIN 1 - ATH 2)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2023-09-28	KC @ DET	DET by 0.7	57%	+4 (DET 7 - KC 3)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-28	BOS @ BAL	BAL by 0.8	58%	+2 (BAL 2 - BOS 0)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-28	NYY @ TOR	TOR by 0.6	56%	+6 (TOR 6 - NYY 0)	TOR · HIT	TOR -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-28	LAD @ COL	LAD by 2.8	24%	+9 (COL 14 - LAD 5)	LAD · miss	LAD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-28	PIT @ PHI	PHI by 1.7	67%	-1 (PHI 2 - PIT 3)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2023-09-28	KC @ DET	DET by 1.2	61%	+8 (DET 8 - KC 0)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-28	AZ @ CWS	AZ by 1.3	37%	+2 (CWS 3 - AZ 1)	AZ · miss	AZ -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	TEX @ SEA	SEA by 0.5	55%	+8 (SEA 8 - TEX 0)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-29	LAD @ SF	LAD by 1.0	40%	-4 (SF 2 - LAD 6)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-29	HOU @ AZ	HOU by 0.7	43%	-1 (AZ 1 - HOU 2)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	CHC @ MIL	MIL by 0.5	55%	+1 (MIL 4 - CHC 3)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	ATH @ LAA	LAA by 0.9	59%	+4 (LAA 5 - ATH 1)	LAA · HIT	LAA -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-29	MIN @ COL	MIN by 1.8	32%	-1 (COL 6 - MIN 7)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	CIN @ STL	CIN by 0.2	48%	-17 (STL 2 - CIN 19)	CIN · HIT	CIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-29	NYY @ KC	NYY by 1.5	36%	+7 (KC 12 - NYY 5)	NYY · miss	NYY -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	BOS @ BAL	BAL by 0.9	59%	-3 (BAL 0 - BOS 3)	BAL · miss	BAL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	SD @ CWS	SD by 1.7	33%	-1 (CWS 2 - SD 3)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	TB @ TOR	TB by 0.2	48%	+7 (TOR 11 - TB 4)	TB · miss	TB -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	WSH @ ATL	ATL by 2.6	75%	-4 (ATL 6 - WSH 10)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-29	CLE @ DET	CLE by 0.4	46%	-2 (DET 5 - CLE 7)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-29	MIA @ PIT	MIA by 0.4	46%	-1 (PIT 3 - MIA 4)	MIA · HIT	MIA -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	TEX @ SEA	SEA by 0.5	55%	-5 (SEA 1 - TEX 6)	SEA · miss	SEA -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	MIN @ COL	MIN by 1.9	31%	-8 (COL 6 - MIN 14)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-30	WSH @ ATL	ATL by 2.4	73%	+2 (ATL 5 - WSH 3)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-30	HOU @ AZ	HOU by 1.0	40%	-1 (AZ 0 - HOU 1)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	ATH @ LAA	LAA by 0.9	59%	-4 (LAA 3 - ATH 7)	LAA · miss	LAA -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	CIN @ STL	CIN by 0.1	49%	+9 (STL 15 - CIN 6)	CIN · miss	CIN -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	CHC @ MIL	MIL by 0.3	53%	-4 (MIL 6 - CHC 10)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	SD @ CWS	SD by 1.4	36%	-5 (CWS 1 - SD 6)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-30	NYY @ KC	NYY by 1.0	40%	-3 (KC 2 - NYY 5)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-30	PHI @ NYM	PHI by 0.4	46%	+1 (NYM 4 - PHI 3)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	BOS @ BAL	BAL by 0.7	57%	+3 (BAL 5 - BOS 2)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-30	MIA @ PIT	MIA by 0.5	45%	-4 (PIT 3 - MIA 7)	MIA · HIT	MIA -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-30	CLE @ DET	CLE by 0.1	49%	+8 (DET 8 - CLE 0)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	LAD @ SF	LAD by 1.3	37%	+1 (SF 2 - LAD 1)	LAD · miss	LAD -1.5 · miss
2023-09-30	TB @ TOR	TB by 0.4	46%	-2 (TOR 5 - TB 7)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
2023-09-30	PHI @ NYM	PHI by 0.3	47%	+7 (NYM 11 - PHI 4)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2023-10-01	NYY @ KC	NYY by 1.1	39%	+3 (KC 5 - NYY 2)	NYY · miss	NYY -1.5 · miss
2023-10-01	CIN @ STL	STL by 0.2	52%	+1 (STL 4 - CIN 3)	STL · HIT	STL -1.5 · miss
2023-10-01	WSH @ ATL	ATL by 2.2	71%	-1 (ATL 9 - WSH 10)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2023-10-01	PHI @ NYM	PHI by 0.5	45%	-8 (NYM 1 - PHI 9)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	SD @ CWS	SD by 1.6	34%	-1 (CWS 1 - SD 2)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · miss
2023-10-01	TB @ TOR	TB by 0.1	49%	-4 (TOR 8 - TB 12)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	HOU @ AZ	HOU by 0.4	46%	-7 (AZ 1 - HOU 8)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	MIN @ COL	MIN by 1.7	33%	+1 (COL 3 - MIN 2)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2023-10-01	TEX @ SEA	SEA by 0.5	55%	+1 (SEA 1 - TEX 0)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · miss
2023-10-01	CLE @ DET	DET by 0.2	52%	+3 (DET 5 - CLE 2)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	MIA @ PIT	PIT by 0.1	51%	+3 (PIT 3 - MIA 0)	PIT · HIT	PIT -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	LAD @ SF	LAD by 1.5	36%	-3 (SF 2 - LAD 5)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	CHC @ MIL	MIL by 1.0	60%	+4 (MIL 4 - CHC 0)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	ATH @ LAA	LAA by 0.4	54%	+4 (LAA 7 - ATH 3)	LAA · HIT	LAA -1.5 · HIT
2023-10-01	BOS @ BAL	BAL by 1.1	61%	-5 (BAL 1 - BOS 6)	BAL · miss	BAL -1.5 · miss
2023-10-02	MIA @ NYM	NYM by 0.5	55%	+1 (NYM 1 - MIA 0)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · miss

2024 season — last 150 games

Showing the last 150 games of 2429. The season percentages above are computed over all 2429; only this listing is truncated, to keep the page loadable on a phone.

Date	Game	Bayesian Model line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home first)	Winner pick	Run-line pick
2024-09-18	AZ @ COL	AZ by 1.0	40%	-5 (COL 4 - AZ 9)	AZ · HIT	AZ -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-18	MIN @ CLE	CLE by 0.3	53%	+1 (CLE 5 - MIN 4)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · miss
2024-09-18	ATL @ CIN	ATL by 0.4	46%	-6 (CIN 1 - ATL 7)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-18	ATH @ CHC	CHC by 1.3	63%	-2 (CHC 3 - ATH 5)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-18	SF @ BAL	BAL by 0.7	57%	-2 (BAL 3 - SF 5)	BAL · miss	BAL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-19	TOR @ TEX	TOR by 0.4	46%	-4 (TEX 0 - TOR 4)	TOR · HIT	TOR -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-19	BOS @ TB	TB by 0.3	53%	+2 (TB 2 - BOS 0)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-19	PIT @ STL	STL by 0.2	52%	-1 (STL 2 - PIT 3)	STL · miss	STL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-19	NYY @ SEA	SEA by 0.4	54%	+1 (SEA 3 - NYY 2)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · miss
2024-09-19	PHI @ NYM	NYM by 0.6	56%	+4 (NYM 10 - PHI 6)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-19	AZ @ MIL	MIL by 0.3	53%	-4 (MIL 1 - AZ 5)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-19	LAD @ MIA	LAD by 1.3	37%	-16 (MIA 4 - LAD 20)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-19	LAA @ HOU	HOU by 1.6	66%	+2 (HOU 3 - LAA 1)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-19	MIN @ CLE	CLE by 0.4	54%	+1 (CLE 3 - MIN 2)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · miss
2024-09-19	ATL @ CIN	ATL by 0.6	44%	-12 (CIN 3 - ATL 15)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-19	WSH @ CHC	CHC by 1.0	60%	+1 (CHC 7 - WSH 6)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-19	SF @ BAL	BAL by 0.5	55%	+2 (BAL 5 - SF 3)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	SEA @ TEX	SEA by 0.7	43%	-6 (TEX 2 - SEA 8)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	TOR @ TB	pick'em	50%	+1 (TB 1 - TOR 0)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2024-09-20	CLE @ STL	CLE by 0.9	40%	-4 (STL 1 - CLE 5)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	CWS @ SD	SD by 2.0	69%	+1 (SD 3 - CWS 2)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · miss
2024-09-20	NYY @ ATH	NYY by 1.0	40%	-2 (ATH 2 - NYY 4)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	PHI @ NYM	PHI by 0.1	49%	-10 (NYM 2 - PHI 12)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	AZ @ MIL	AZ by 0.1	49%	-3 (MIL 4 - AZ 7)	AZ · HIT	AZ -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	ATL @ MIA	ATL by 1.2	38%	+1 (MIA 4 - ATL 3)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-20	COL @ LAD	LAD by 1.6	66%	+2 (LAD 6 - COL 4)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	SF @ KC	KC by 0.4	54%	-1 (KC 1 - SF 2)	KC · miss	KC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-20	LAA @ HOU	HOU by 1.3	63%	+2 (HOU 9 - LAA 7)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.7	57%	+5 (CIN 8 - PIT 3)	CIN · HIT	CIN -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	WSH @ CHC	CHC by 1.4	64%	+2 (CHC 3 - WSH 1)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	MIN @ BOS	MIN by 0.1	49%	-2 (BOS 2 - MIN 4)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-20	DET @ BAL	DET by 0.4	46%	+6 (BAL 7 - DET 1)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2024-09-21	SEA @ TEX	SEA by 1.0	40%	-4 (TEX 4 - SEA 8)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-21	TOR @ TB	TB by 0.2	52%	+1 (TB 3 - TOR 2)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · miss
2024-09-21	CLE @ STL	CLE by 0.4	46%	+1 (STL 6 - CLE 5)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2024-09-21	CWS @ SD	SD by 2.2	71%	+4 (SD 6 - CWS 2)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-21	NYY @ ATH	NYY by 0.9	41%	-10 (ATH 0 - NYY 10)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-21	PHI @ NYM	NYM by 0.3	53%	+3 (NYM 6 - PHI 3)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-21	AZ @ MIL	pick'em	50%	-5 (MIL 0 - AZ 5)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-21	ATL @ MIA	ATL by 1.5	35%	-4 (MIA 2 - ATL 6)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-21	COL @ LAD	LAD by 2.0	69%	-3 (LAD 3 - COL 6)	LAD · miss	LAD -1.5 · miss
2024-09-21	SF @ KC	KC by 0.4	54%	-9 (KC 0 - SF 9)	KC · miss	KC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-21	LAA @ HOU	HOU by 1.4	64%	+6 (HOU 10 - LAA 4)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-21	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.7	57%	+6 (CIN 7 - PIT 1)	CIN · HIT	CIN -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-21	WSH @ CHC	CHC by 0.9	59%	-4 (CHC 1 - WSH 5)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-21	DET @ BAL	DET by 0.2	48%	-2 (BAL 4 - DET 6)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-22	SEA @ TEX	SEA by 1.0	40%	+1 (TEX 6 - SEA 5)	SEA · miss	SEA -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	TOR @ TB	TB by 0.2	52%	+1 (TB 4 - TOR 3)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	CLE @ STL	CLE by 0.5	45%	+1 (STL 2 - CLE 1)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	CWS @ SD	SD by 2.4	73%	+2 (SD 4 - CWS 2)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-22	NYY @ ATH	NYY by 0.7	43%	-3 (ATH 4 - NYY 7)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-22	PHI @ NYM	NYM by 0.1	51%	+1 (NYM 2 - PHI 1)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	AZ @ MIL	MIL by 0.3	53%	+1 (MIL 10 - AZ 9)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	ATL @ MIA	ATL by 1.2	38%	-1 (MIA 4 - ATL 5)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	COL @ LAD	LAD by 2.3	72%	+1 (LAD 6 - COL 5)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	SF @ KC	KC by 0.4	54%	-2 (KC 0 - SF 2)	KC · miss	KC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	LAA @ HOU	HOU by 1.6	65%	-1 (HOU 8 - LAA 9)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.7	57%	-2 (CIN 0 - PIT 2)	CIN · miss	CIN -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	WSH @ CHC	CHC by 1.2	61%	+5 (CHC 5 - WSH 0)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-22	MIN @ BOS	MIN by 0.3	47%	+7 (BOS 8 - MIN 1)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	DET @ BAL	DET by 0.2	48%	-1 (BAL 3 - DET 4)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · miss
2024-09-22	MIN @ BOS	MIN by 0.1	49%	+6 (BOS 9 - MIN 3)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2024-09-23	BOS @ TOR	TOR by 0.2	52%	-3 (TOR 1 - BOS 4)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2024-09-23	CHC @ PHI	PHI by 0.2	52%	+4 (PHI 6 - CHC 2)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-23	SEA @ HOU	HOU by 0.2	52%	-5 (HOU 1 - SEA 6)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2024-09-23	SF @ AZ	AZ by 1.0	60%	-3 (AZ 3 - SF 6)	AZ · miss	AZ -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	KC @ WSH	KC by 0.8	42%	-1 (WSH 0 - KC 1)	KC · HIT	KC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	BOS @ TOR	TOR by 0.4	54%	-1 (TOR 5 - BOS 6)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	MIL @ PIT	MIL by 1.1	39%	-5 (PIT 2 - MIL 7)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-24	CHC @ PHI	CHC by 0.1	49%	-6 (PHI 4 - CHC 10)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-24	TEX @ ATH	TEX by 0.3	47%	+1 (ATH 5 - TEX 4)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	BAL @ NYY	NYY by 0.3	53%	-2 (NYY 3 - BAL 5)	NYY · miss	NYY -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	MIA @ MIN	MIN by 1.0	60%	-3 (MIN 1 - MIA 4)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	SD @ LAD	SD by 0.2	48%	-2 (LAD 2 - SD 4)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-24	SEA @ HOU	HOU by 0.1	51%	+1 (HOU 4 - SEA 3)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	TB @ DET	DET by 0.6	56%	+1 (DET 2 - TB 1)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	STL @ COL	STL by 0.6	44%	-4 (COL 3 - STL 7)	STL · HIT	STL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-24	CIN @ CLE	CLE by 0.5	55%	+5 (CLE 6 - CIN 1)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-24	LAA @ CWS	LAA by 1.0	40%	+1 (CWS 3 - LAA 2)	LAA · miss	LAA -1.5 · miss
2024-09-24	NYM @ ATL	ATL by 0.2	52%	+4 (ATL 5 - NYM 1)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-24	SF @ AZ	AZ by 0.6	56%	-11 (AZ 0 - SF 11)	AZ · miss	AZ -1.5 · miss
2024-09-25	KC @ WSH	KC by 0.4	46%	-3 (WSH 0 - KC 3)	KC · HIT	KC -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	BOS @ TOR	TOR by 0.2	52%	+5 (TOR 6 - BOS 1)	TOR · HIT	TOR -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	MIL @ PIT	MIL by 0.9	41%	+1 (PIT 2 - MIL 1)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-25	CHC @ PHI	PHI by 0.5	55%	+3 (PHI 9 - CHC 6)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	TEX @ ATH	TEX by 0.2	48%	-4 (ATH 1 - TEX 5)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	BAL @ NYY	BAL by 0.1	49%	-2 (NYY 7 - BAL 9)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	MIA @ MIN	MIN by 1.0	60%	+5 (MIN 8 - MIA 3)	MIN · HIT	MIN -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	SD @ LAD	pick'em	50%	+1 (LAD 4 - SD 3)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · miss
2024-09-25	SEA @ HOU	HOU by 0.1	51%	-7 (HOU 1 - SEA 8)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2024-09-25	TB @ DET	DET by 0.1	51%	+6 (DET 7 - TB 1)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	STL @ COL	STL by 0.7	43%	-3 (COL 2 - STL 5)	STL · HIT	STL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-25	CIN @ CLE	pick'em	50%	+3 (CLE 5 - CIN 2)	CIN · miss	CIN -1.5 · miss
2024-09-25	LAA @ CWS	LAA by 0.6	44%	+1 (CWS 4 - LAA 3)	LAA · miss	LAA -1.5 · miss
2024-09-25	SF @ AZ	AZ by 0.6	56%	+6 (AZ 8 - SF 2)	AZ · HIT	AZ -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-26	KC @ WSH	KC by 0.9	41%	-3 (WSH 4 - KC 7)	KC · HIT	KC -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-26	MIL @ PIT	MIL by 0.8	42%	-3 (PIT 2 - MIL 5)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-26	TEX @ ATH	pick'em	50%	+1 (ATH 3 - TEX 2)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2024-09-26	BAL @ NYY	NYY by 0.4	54%	+9 (NYY 10 - BAL 1)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-26	MIA @ MIN	MIN by 1.1	61%	-2 (MIN 6 - MIA 8)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2024-09-26	SD @ LAD	pick'em	50%	+5 (LAD 7 - SD 2)	SD · miss	SD -1.5 · miss
2024-09-26	TB @ DET	DET by 0.2	52%	+1 (DET 4 - TB 3)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · miss
2024-09-26	STL @ COL	STL by 0.2	48%	+2 (COL 10 - STL 8)	STL · miss	STL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-26	LAA @ CWS	LAA by 0.7	43%	+7 (CWS 7 - LAA 0)	LAA · miss	LAA -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	PHI @ WSH	PHI by 1.1	39%	+8 (WSH 9 - PHI 1)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	MIA @ TOR	TOR by 1.1	61%	-10 (TOR 5 - MIA 15)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	ATH @ SEA	SEA by 1.5	65%	+2 (SEA 2 - ATH 0)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-27	STL @ SF	SF by 0.1	51%	-3 (SF 3 - STL 6)	SF · miss	SF -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	PIT @ NYY	NYY by 1.1	61%	-2 (NYY 2 - PIT 4)	NYY · miss	NYY -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	BAL @ MIN	MIN by 0.1	51%	-5 (MIN 2 - BAL 7)	MIN · miss	MIN -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	NYM @ MIL	NYM by 0.4	46%	+4 (MIL 8 - NYM 4)	NYM · miss	NYM -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	TEX @ LAA	TEX by 0.7	43%	-3 (LAA 2 - TEX 5)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-27	CWS @ DET	DET by 1.7	67%	+3 (DET 4 - CWS 1)	DET · HIT	DET -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-27	LAD @ COL	LAD by 2.1	29%	-7 (COL 4 - LAD 11)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-27	HOU @ CLE	HOU by 0.4	46%	-3 (CLE 2 - HOU 5)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-27	CIN @ CHC	CHC by 0.6	56%	+1 (CHC 1 - CIN 0)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	TB @ BOS	BOS by 0.1	51%	-1 (BOS 1 - TB 2)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2024-09-27	KC @ ATL	ATL by 0.6	56%	+3 (ATL 3 - KC 0)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-27	SD @ AZ	SD by 0.1	49%	-2 (AZ 3 - SD 5)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-28	PHI @ WSH	PHI by 1.2	39%	+3 (WSH 6 - PHI 3)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	MIA @ TOR	TOR by 0.8	58%	-7 (TOR 1 - MIA 8)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	ATH @ SEA	SEA by 1.3	63%	+1 (SEA 7 - ATH 6)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	STL @ SF	SF by 0.4	54%	+1 (SF 6 - STL 5)	SF · HIT	SF -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	PIT @ NYY	NYY by 0.7	57%	-5 (NYY 4 - PIT 9)	NYY · miss	NYY -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	BAL @ MIN	BAL by 0.3	47%	-7 (MIN 2 - BAL 9)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-28	NYM @ MIL	MIL by 0.3	54%	+6 (MIL 6 - NYM 0)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-28	TEX @ LAA	TEX by 0.6	44%	-1 (LAA 8 - TEX 9)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	CWS @ DET	DET by 1.9	69%	-4 (DET 0 - CWS 4)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	LAD @ COL	LAD by 2.0	31%	-11 (COL 2 - LAD 13)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-28	HOU @ CLE	HOU by 0.4	46%	-1 (CLE 3 - HOU 4)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	CIN @ CHC	CHC by 0.6	56%	+3 (CHC 3 - CIN 0)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-28	TB @ BOS	BOS by 0.1	51%	-5 (BOS 2 - TB 7)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	KC @ ATL	ATL by 0.3	53%	+1 (ATL 2 - KC 1)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-28	SD @ AZ	pick'em	50%	-5 (AZ 0 - SD 5)	AZ · miss	AZ -1.5 · miss
2024-09-29	PHI @ WSH	PHI by 1.0	40%	-3 (WSH 3 - PHI 6)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-29	MIA @ TOR	TOR by 1.2	62%	-2 (TOR 1 - MIA 3)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2024-09-29	ATH @ SEA	SEA by 1.6	65%	+2 (SEA 6 - ATH 4)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-29	STL @ SF	pick'em	50%	-5 (SF 1 - STL 6)	SF · miss	SF -1.5 · miss
2024-09-29	PIT @ NYY	NYY by 1.0	60%	+2 (NYY 6 - PIT 4)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-29	BAL @ MIN	BAL by 0.1	49%	-4 (MIN 2 - BAL 6)	BAL · HIT	BAL -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-29	NYM @ MIL	NYM by 0.2	48%	-5 (MIL 0 - NYM 5)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-29	TEX @ LAA	TEX by 0.2	48%	-8 (LAA 0 - TEX 8)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-29	CWS @ DET	DET by 1.9	68%	-4 (DET 5 - CWS 9)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2024-09-29	LAD @ COL	LAD by 1.4	36%	-1 (COL 1 - LAD 2)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · miss
2024-09-29	CIN @ CHC	CHC by 0.6	56%	-3 (CHC 0 - CIN 3)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2024-09-29	TB @ BOS	pick'em	50%	+2 (BOS 3 - TB 1)	BOS · HIT	BOS -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-29	KC @ ATL	ATL by 0.5	55%	-2 (ATL 2 - KC 4)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-29	SD @ AZ	AZ by 0.2	52%	+9 (AZ 11 - SD 2)	AZ · HIT	AZ -1.5 · HIT
2024-09-30	NYM @ ATL	ATL by 0.6	56%	-1 (ATL 7 - NYM 8)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2024-09-30	NYM @ ATL	ATL by 0.7	57%	+3 (ATL 3 - NYM 0)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT

2025 season — last 150 games

Showing the last 150 games of 2430. The season percentages above are computed over all 2430; only this listing is truncated, to keep the page loadable on a phone.

Date	Game	Bayesian Model line	Model: home team wins	Final margin (home first)	Winner pick	Run-line pick
2025-09-17	LAA @ MIL	MIL by 2.3	72%	+7 (MIL 9 - LAA 2)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-17	TEX @ HOU	TEX by 0.6	44%	+3 (HOU 5 - TEX 2)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2025-09-17	CLE @ DET	DET by 0.5	55%	-4 (DET 0 - CLE 4)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2025-09-17	ATH @ BOS	BOS by 0.6	56%	+1 (BOS 5 - ATH 4)	BOS · HIT	BOS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-18	TOR @ TB	TB by 0.1	51%	+4 (TB 4 - TOR 0)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-18	MIA @ COL	MIA by 1.6	35%	-2 (COL 7 - MIA 9)	MIA · HIT	MIA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-18	SF @ LAD	LAD by 0.8	58%	+1 (LAD 2 - SF 1)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-18	SEA @ KC	SEA by 0.6	44%	-2 (KC 0 - SEA 2)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-18	LAA @ MIL	MIL by 2.0	69%	+3 (MIL 5 - LAA 2)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-18	CLE @ DET	DET by 0.6	56%	-2 (DET 1 - CLE 3)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2025-09-18	SD @ NYM	SD by 0.4	46%	+5 (NYM 6 - SD 1)	SD · miss	SD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-18	NYY @ BAL	NYY by 0.8	43%	-7 (BAL 0 - NYY 7)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-18	ATH @ BOS	BOS by 1.0	60%	-2 (BOS 3 - ATH 5)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-18	CHC @ CIN	CHC by 0.5	45%	+1 (CIN 1 - CHC 0)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	MIA @ TEX	TEX by 1.1	61%	-2 (TEX 4 - MIA 6)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	LAA @ COL	LAA by 1.5	35%	+1 (COL 7 - LAA 6)	LAA · miss	LAA -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	PHI @ AZ	PHI by 0.1	49%	-6 (AZ 2 - PHI 8)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-19	SF @ LAD	LAD by 0.9	59%	+3 (LAD 6 - SF 3)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-19	WSH @ NYM	NYM by 1.1	61%	+6 (NYM 12 - WSH 6)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-19	TOR @ KC	TOR by 0.8	42%	+19 (KC 20 - TOR 1)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	BOS @ TB	BOS by 0.4	46%	-4 (TB 7 - BOS 11)	BOS · HIT	BOS -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-19	SEA @ HOU	SEA by 0.3	47%	-4 (HOU 0 - SEA 4)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-19	CLE @ MIN	CLE by 0.3	47%	-4 (MIN 2 - CLE 6)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-19	SD @ CWS	SD by 1.0	40%	+1 (CWS 4 - SD 3)	SD · miss	SD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	MIL @ STL	MIL by 1.3	37%	+6 (STL 7 - MIL 1)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	ATH @ PIT	pick'em	50%	-1 (PIT 3 - ATH 4)	PIT · miss	PIT -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	CHC @ CIN	CHC by 0.5	45%	+3 (CIN 7 - CHC 4)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	ATL @ DET	DET by 0.2	52%	-9 (DET 1 - ATL 10)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2025-09-19	NYY @ BAL	NYY by 0.2	48%	+2 (BAL 4 - NYY 2)	NYY · miss	NYY -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	SF @ LAD	LAD by 0.7	57%	+2 (LAD 7 - SF 5)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-20	LAA @ COL	LAA by 1.6	35%	-3 (COL 0 - LAA 3)	LAA · HIT	LAA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-20	MIA @ TEX	TEX by 1.0	60%	-1 (TEX 3 - MIA 4)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	MIL @ STL	MIL by 1.4	36%	-1 (STL 2 - MIL 3)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	TOR @ KC	TOR by 0.7	43%	+1 (KC 2 - TOR 1)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	PHI @ AZ	PHI by 0.4	46%	+1 (AZ 4 - PHI 3)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	BOS @ TB	pick'em	50%	-3 (TB 3 - BOS 6)	TB · miss	TB -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	SEA @ HOU	SEA by 0.3	47%	-2 (HOU 4 - SEA 6)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-20	ATH @ PIT	pick'em	50%	+2 (PIT 2 - ATH 0)	PIT · HIT	PIT -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-20	SD @ CWS	SD by 0.8	42%	-4 (CWS 3 - SD 7)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-20	WSH @ NYM	NYM by 1.5	65%	-2 (NYM 3 - WSH 5)	NYM · miss	NYM -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	CHC @ CIN	CHC by 0.2	48%	+3 (CIN 6 - CHC 3)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	NYY @ BAL	NYY by 0.8	42%	-5 (BAL 1 - NYY 6)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-20	ATL @ DET	DET by 0.6	56%	-1 (DET 5 - ATL 6)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2025-09-20	CLE @ MIN	CLE by 0.4	46%	-6 (MIN 0 - CLE 6)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-20	CLE @ MIN	CLE by 0.3	47%	-8 (MIN 0 - CLE 8)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-21	CLE @ MIN	CLE by 0.7	43%	+4 (MIN 6 - CLE 2)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	MIA @ TEX	TEX by 1.4	64%	-2 (TEX 2 - MIA 4)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	SF @ LAD	LAD by 1.0	60%	-2 (LAD 1 - SF 3)	LAD · miss	LAD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	SEA @ HOU	SEA by 0.5	45%	-4 (HOU 3 - SEA 7)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-21	TOR @ KC	TOR by 0.3	47%	-3 (KC 5 - TOR 8)	TOR · HIT	TOR -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-21	PHI @ AZ	PHI by 0.5	45%	+7 (AZ 9 - PHI 2)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	MIL @ STL	MIL by 1.5	35%	+4 (STL 5 - MIL 1)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	LAA @ COL	LAA by 0.5	45%	+2 (COL 3 - LAA 1)	LAA · miss	LAA -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	ATH @ PIT	PIT by 0.2	52%	+11 (PIT 11 - ATH 0)	PIT · HIT	PIT -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-21	SD @ CWS	SD by 1.0	40%	-1 (CWS 2 - SD 3)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	BOS @ TB	BOS by 0.5	45%	+4 (TB 7 - BOS 3)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	WSH @ NYM	NYM by 1.6	66%	-1 (NYM 2 - WSH 3)	NYM · miss	NYM -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	ATL @ DET	DET by 0.7	57%	-4 (DET 2 - ATL 6)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	CHC @ CIN	CHC by 0.2	48%	+1 (CIN 1 - CHC 0)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-21	NYY @ BAL	NYY by 0.6	44%	-6 (BAL 1 - NYY 7)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-22	STL @ SF	SF by 0.4	54%	-1 (SF 5 - STL 6)	SF · miss	SF -1.5 · miss
2025-09-22	WSH @ ATL	ATL by 1.5	65%	+6 (ATL 11 - WSH 5)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-22	MIL @ SD	MIL by 0.6	44%	+1 (SD 5 - MIL 4)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	KC @ LAA	KC by 1.2	39%	-4 (LAA 4 - KC 8)	KC · HIT	KC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-23	HOU @ ATH	HOU by 0.2	48%	+4 (ATH 5 - HOU 1)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	NYM @ CHC	CHC by 0.5	55%	-2 (CHC 7 - NYM 9)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	MIN @ TEX	TEX by 0.8	58%	-3 (TEX 1 - MIN 4)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	STL @ SF	SF by 0.6	56%	-1 (SF 8 - STL 9)	SF · miss	SF -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	COL @ SEA	SEA by 2.4	73%	+1 (SEA 4 - COL 3)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	LAD @ AZ	LAD by 0.2	48%	+1 (AZ 5 - LAD 4)	LAD · miss	LAD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	MIL @ SD	MIL by 0.5	45%	+7 (SD 7 - MIL 0)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	MIA @ PHI	PHI by 1.4	64%	-1 (PHI 5 - MIA 6)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	CWS @ NYY	NYY by 1.1	61%	+1 (NYY 3 - CWS 2)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	BOS @ TOR	TOR by 0.4	54%	-3 (TOR 1 - BOS 4)	TOR · miss	TOR -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	DET @ CLE	DET by 0.2	48%	+3 (CLE 5 - DET 2)	DET · miss	DET -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	WSH @ ATL	ATL by 1.2	62%	+1 (ATL 3 - WSH 2)	ATL · HIT	ATL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	TB @ BAL	TB by 0.3	47%	+6 (BAL 6 - TB 0)	TB · miss	TB -1.5 · miss
2025-09-23	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.6	56%	-2 (CIN 2 - PIT 4)	CIN · miss	CIN -1.5 · miss
2025-09-24	MIN @ TEX	TEX by 1.2	62%	+2 (TEX 4 - MIN 2)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	LAD @ AZ	LAD by 0.1	49%	-1 (AZ 4 - LAD 5)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-24	COL @ SEA	SEA by 2.4	73%	+7 (SEA 9 - COL 2)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	HOU @ ATH	HOU by 0.2	48%	+6 (ATH 6 - HOU 0)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2025-09-24	STL @ SF	STL by 0.2	48%	+1 (SF 4 - STL 3)	STL · miss	STL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-24	KC @ LAA	KC by 1.3	37%	+1 (LAA 3 - KC 2)	KC · miss	KC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-24	MIL @ SD	MIL by 0.8	42%	-2 (SD 1 - MIL 3)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	CWS @ NYY	NYY by 1.4	64%	+7 (NYY 8 - CWS 1)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	WSH @ ATL	ATL by 1.4	63%	-1 (ATL 3 - WSH 4)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-24	MIA @ PHI	PHI by 1.3	63%	+10 (PHI 11 - MIA 1)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.3	53%	-1 (CIN 3 - PIT 4)	CIN · miss	CIN -1.5 · miss
2025-09-24	TB @ BAL	TB by 0.4	46%	-4 (BAL 2 - TB 6)	TB · HIT	TB -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	DET @ CLE	CLE by 0.4	54%	+4 (CLE 5 - DET 1)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	NYM @ CHC	CHC by 0.3	53%	+7 (CHC 10 - NYM 3)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-24	BOS @ TOR	BOS by 0.7	43%	-6 (TOR 1 - BOS 7)	BOS · HIT	BOS -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-25	KC @ LAA	KC by 0.8	42%	-5 (LAA 4 - KC 9)	KC · HIT	KC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-25	COL @ SEA	SEA by 2.6	74%	+4 (SEA 6 - COL 2)	SEA · HIT	SEA -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-25	HOU @ ATH	HOU by 0.3	47%	-6 (ATH 5 - HOU 11)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-25	MIN @ TEX	TEX by 0.9	59%	-4 (TEX 0 - MIN 4)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2025-09-25	CWS @ NYY	NYY by 1.3	63%	+2 (NYY 5 - CWS 3)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-25	LAD @ AZ	pick'em	50%	-8 (AZ 0 - LAD 8)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-25	BOS @ TOR	BOS by 0.2	48%	+5 (TOR 6 - BOS 1)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-25	NYM @ CHC	CHC by 0.3	53%	-3 (CHC 5 - NYM 8)	CHC · miss	CHC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-25	MIA @ PHI	PHI by 0.7	57%	+1 (PHI 1 - MIA 0)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · miss
2025-09-25	DET @ CLE	CLE by 0.4	54%	-2 (CLE 2 - DET 4)	CLE · miss	CLE -1.5 · miss
2025-09-25	PIT @ CIN	CIN by 0.5	55%	+1 (CIN 2 - PIT 1)	CIN · HIT	CIN -1.5 · miss
2025-09-25	TB @ BAL	TB by 0.5	45%	+1 (BAL 6 - TB 5)	TB · miss	TB -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	CWS @ WSH	CWS by 0.6	44%	-1 (WSH 9 - CWS 10)	CWS · HIT	CWS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	COL @ SF	SF by 2.4	73%	+3 (SF 6 - COL 3)	SF · HIT	SF -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-26	STL @ CHC	CHC by 1.2	62%	+11 (CHC 12 - STL 1)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-26	LAD @ SEA	LAD by 0.1	49%	-1 (SEA 2 - LAD 3)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	HOU @ LAA	HOU by 0.5	45%	+1 (LAA 4 - HOU 3)	HOU · miss	HOU -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	AZ @ SD	SD by 0.2	52%	+3 (SD 7 - AZ 4)	SD · HIT	SD -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-26	CIN @ MIL	MIL by 1.0	60%	-2 (MIL 1 - CIN 3)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	KC @ ATH	KC by 0.3	47%	+1 (ATH 4 - KC 3)	KC · miss	KC -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	NYM @ MIA	NYM by 0.5	45%	+4 (MIA 6 - NYM 2)	NYM · miss	NYM -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	BAL @ NYY	NYY by 0.6	56%	+4 (NYY 8 - BAL 4)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-26	TEX @ CLE	TEX by 0.1	49%	-4 (CLE 3 - TEX 7)	TEX · HIT	TEX -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-26	MIN @ PHI	PHI by 1.2	62%	+2 (PHI 3 - MIN 1)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-26	TB @ TOR	TOR by 0.2	52%	+2 (TOR 4 - TB 2)	TOR · HIT	TOR -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-26	PIT @ ATL	ATL by 0.4	54%	-6 (ATL 3 - PIT 9)	ATL · miss	ATL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-26	DET @ BOS	BOS by 0.3	53%	+1 (BOS 4 - DET 3)	BOS · HIT	BOS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	COL @ SF	SF by 1.9	69%	+1 (SF 4 - COL 3)	SF · HIT	SF -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	LAD @ SEA	SEA by 0.2	52%	-2 (SEA 3 - LAD 5)	SEA · miss	SEA -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	AZ @ SD	pick'em	50%	+4 (SD 5 - AZ 1)	AZ · miss	AZ -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	CIN @ MIL	MIL by 0.8	58%	-3 (MIL 4 - CIN 7)	MIL · miss	MIL -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	KC @ ATH	KC by 0.5	45%	-2 (ATH 2 - KC 4)	KC · HIT	KC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-27	HOU @ LAA	HOU by 1.0	40%	-5 (LAA 1 - HOU 6)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-27	PIT @ ATL	pick'em	50%	-2 (ATL 1 - PIT 3)	PIT · HIT	PIT -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-27	DET @ BOS	BOS by 0.6	56%	-1 (BOS 1 - DET 2)	BOS · miss	BOS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	TEX @ CLE	pick'em	50%	+1 (CLE 3 - TEX 2)	CLE · HIT	CLE -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	TB @ TOR	TOR by 0.4	54%	+4 (TOR 5 - TB 1)	TOR · HIT	TOR -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-27	CWS @ WSH	CWS by 0.7	43%	+1 (WSH 6 - CWS 5)	CWS · miss	CWS -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	NYM @ MIA	NYM by 0.5	45%	-5 (MIA 0 - NYM 5)	NYM · HIT	NYM -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-27	BAL @ NYY	NYY by 1.5	65%	+5 (NYY 6 - BAL 1)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-27	MIN @ PHI	PHI by 1.5	64%	-5 (PHI 0 - MIN 5)	PHI · miss	PHI -1.5 · miss
2025-09-27	STL @ CHC	CHC by 1.4	63%	+4 (CHC 7 - STL 3)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	HOU @ LAA	pick'em	50%	-4 (LAA 2 - HOU 6)	HOU · HIT	HOU -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	AZ @ SD	AZ by 0.1	49%	+8 (SD 12 - AZ 4)	AZ · miss	AZ -1.5 · miss
2025-09-28	COL @ SF	SF by 2.2	71%	+4 (SF 4 - COL 0)	SF · HIT	SF -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	KC @ ATH	KC by 0.5	45%	-7 (ATH 2 - KC 9)	KC · HIT	KC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	LAD @ SEA	pick'em	50%	-5 (SEA 1 - LAD 6)	LAD · HIT	LAD -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	BAL @ NYY	NYY by 1.1	61%	+1 (NYY 3 - BAL 2)	NYY · HIT	NYY -1.5 · miss
2025-09-28	MIN @ PHI	PHI by 1.8	68%	+1 (PHI 2 - MIN 1)	PHI · HIT	PHI -1.5 · miss
2025-09-28	STL @ CHC	CHC by 0.9	59%	+2 (CHC 2 - STL 0)	CHC · HIT	CHC -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	CWS @ WSH	CWS by 0.4	46%	-8 (WSH 0 - CWS 8)	CWS · HIT	CWS -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	CIN @ MIL	MIL by 0.9	59%	+2 (MIL 4 - CIN 2)	MIL · HIT	MIL -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	TB @ TOR	TOR by 0.5	55%	+9 (TOR 13 - TB 4)	TOR · HIT	TOR -1.5 · HIT
2025-09-28	TEX @ CLE	TEX by 0.1	49%	+1 (CLE 9 - TEX 8)	TEX · miss	TEX -1.5 · miss
2025-09-28	NYM @ MIA	NYM by 0.5	45%	+4 (MIA 4 - NYM 0)	NYM · miss	NYM -1.5 · miss
2025-09-28	PIT @ ATL	pick'em	50%	+3 (ATL 4 - PIT 1)	PIT · miss	PIT -1.5 · miss
2025-09-28	DET @ BOS	BOS by 0.6	56%	+1 (BOS 4 - DET 3)	BOS · HIT	BOS -1.5 · miss

Bayesian 101

The one idea behind everything here. A prediction is not a number, it is a range of belief. This model never says "the Yankees will win by 1." It says "our best guess is Yankees by 1, and here is exactly how sure we are." Bayesian modeling is the math of keeping honest track of that sureness: start with a reasonable belief, let each game's evidence pull it, and never claim more certainty than the evidence paid for.

Why every prediction says plus-or-minus four and a half runs. That number is measured, not assumed. Take every game since 2008, compare the final run differential to the best pre-game prediction anyone can make, and the typical miss is about 4.4 runs. Vegas misses by about the same. Baseball is decided by a seeing-eye single, a checked swing, and a reliever who did not have it that night. The skill is not shrinking the 4.4; it is knowing your 4.4 honestly while the market prices as if it were smaller.

Why baseball is harder than football. An NFL model can separate two teams by two touchdowns. The best pre-game baseball model in the world separates almost every matchup by less than two runs, on a spread of four and a half. That is why nearly every card on This Week reads NO VALUE: the honest range dwarfs the edge, and the market already knows what the model knows. Finding three real disagreements a week is the job working, not failing.

The Kalman filter: the model's memory. Every club carries a rating, runs better or worse than average on a neutral field, updated after every game by a Kalman filter, the same math that navigated Apollo to the moon. The filter's genius is knowing how far to move: a 10-run blowout by a club it already trusts barely moves the rating; the same blowout by a mystery club moves it a lot. The rating drifts a little each day off, and between seasons it shrinks toward average and its uncertainty balloons. Home field is learned, not assumed, and it converged to about four hundredths of a run: in baseball, home field is nearly nothing.

The stat sheet. What the model is fed, for every game, always computed only from games played before it:

Input	What it is
Kalman rating gap	Club strength difference, runs on a neutral field
Rating uncertainty	How well the filter currently knows both clubs
Scoring form and its slope	Recent run differential, recent games weighted more, plus the trajectory of the last ten: two clubs at the same level separate here if one is rising and one is falling
Baserunner pressure	Runners put on per inning, for and against. A club getting runners on every few innings is bound to break through
Stranding rate	Share of baserunners left on base: the difference between traffic and runs
Late-inning margin	Runs scored and allowed in innings seven and later: bullpen and nerve, without needing a separate bullpen model
Starter FIP	Strikeouts, walks and homers per inning for tonight's listed starter, the part of run prevention a pitcher actually controls
Starter command and consistency	Strike rate, and how steady that strike rate is start to start. A pitcher who spots it every time out is worth more than one who averages the same but scatters
Starter rest	Days since the last outing
Bullpen quality and workload	Relief FIP, and relief innings thrown in the last three days. A gassed pen is a real edge for the other side
Park factor	How much this yard inflates runs, computed only from prior seasons
Day or night, rest, division	The small stuff, included because it is free

Deliberately absent: betting lines. A model fed the market's answer can only agree with the market; this one has to form its own opinion so the two can genuinely disagree.

The narrative edge. A human can enter a story the model cannot see: a club in a playoff push, a starter fresh off the injured list, a clubhouse that has come together. It moves the predicted margin by at most one run, and it always widens the uncertainty, so an opinion can shift the number but can never buy confidence. Both the model-only and the model-plus-narrative calls are logged and scored separately, so whether the human helps is a number at the end of the season, not a feeling.

What this model honestly cannot see. A late scratch, three regulars resting in a day game after a night game, wind blowing out. Every green badge gets a human news check before anything happens. When the market disagrees with the model, the market is usually right; this system exists to find the exceptions and to know the difference.

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